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I was for a long time quite a fan of a "soft" block size increase, e.g. to a maximum of 8 MB (similar to Segwit2x). But now with the advances in sidechain and LN technology, I think it is no longer necessary.
The reasoning is quite simple: you should try to bundle all smaller transaction you can. LN and sidechains are nothing more than "bundling" technologies. Major blockchain state changes will still be secured on-chain.
There is however one case we may need a block size increase in the future, and
we should reserve this "last resort measure" only for that purpose: post-quantum cryptography. We don't know if it will become a threat in forseeable time. But as the signatures of post-quantum algos are much bigger (most at least 5 times) it would lead to a sharp decrease in capacity if block size was the same.
Now imagine we increase block size now, e.g. to something like 8 MB. People get accustomed to this block size and eventually the blocks will fill. Then the quantum threat emerges and we suddenly need to scale to 20 MB blocks to accomodate the same transaction volume. This would be probably a big problem for non-professional full nodes. Bandwidth is improving, yes, but then your typical "home" internet plan would be consumed almost completely by Bitcoin.
And that only to be able to store every single payment in the blockchain, only to not "bundle" transactions in some way?
Block size increase failed at NYC Summit 2025
Do you have more info about that? I fail to find information ...