2025 Elliott Wave

[josegines]

BTC closed the week above $114k
Will there be a bullish count, or do you still want it to go to $50k after a whole year of waiting, with no bullish alternate count?

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[josegines]

Are fractals of any use in Elliot?

[xxxx123abcxxxx]

Are fractals of any use in Elliot?

https://i.postimg.cc/xTrT2XcF/Selecci-n-062.jpg

The very nature of Elliott Waves are fractal.

[bhadz]

This is like a man cave and people don't come here and try to look how enthusiastic what this elliott wave's show. I've seen some real life elliott wave traders and they're also bullish for Bitcoin. Looking at that with the projection of potentially getting $500k early 2026, it's still possible. So we're on the 4th wave already and waiting for the 5th one to reach.

or do you still want it to go to $50k after a whole year of waiting, with no bullish alternate count?

That would indicate the bear market if ever it goes back to $50k.

[xxxx123abcxxxx]

This is like a man cave and people don't come here and try to look how enthusiastic what this elliott wave's show. I've seen some real life elliott wave traders and they're also bullish for Bitcoin. Looking at that with the projection of potentially getting $500k early 2026, it's still possible. So we're on the 4th wave already and waiting for the 5th one to reach.

or do you still want it to go to $50k after a whole year of waiting, with no bullish alternate count?

That would indicate the bear market if ever it goes back to $50k.

Better to be in a man cave, rather than a bear cave !


The Elliott Waves of Bitcoin are starting to act like commodity markets, in two behaviours...

1. The first waves are developing as Leading Diagonals and the fifth waves are developing as Ending Diagonals. This formation of Diagonal waves are overlapping 3-3-3 structures as opposed to impulsive 1-2-3-4-5 wave structures. Consequently, when such Leading/Ending Diagonals are developing in early stages, it is often an assumption to consider such waves as Irregular B-waves at first.

2. The fifth wave is extended and longest; i.e. INTERMEDIATE(5) within PRIMARY[5] is subdividing and extending, which started from the NOV-2024 low.

When the fifth wave is extending and the longest, a completion price target is derived as a Fibonacci 1.618 times the length from the start of first wave to the end of the third wave, projected from the low of the fourth wave. This provides a possible price target of approx $2.3M by around the year 2030, that is, assuming the current uptrend of INTERMEDIATE(5) wave continues along the trendline starting from the NOV-2024 low...

[ahmedabubakarabbo]

Appreciate you sharing that always cool to see different takes on the market even if it is speculative Elliott Wave can give some structure to the chaos. I will check in on the updates now and then just to see how it plays out who knows maybe 2025 follows the wave perfectly

[bhadz]

This is like a man cave and people don't come here and try to look how enthusiastic what this elliott wave's show. I've seen some real life elliott wave traders and they're also bullish for Bitcoin. Looking at that with the projection of potentially getting $500k early 2026, it's still possible. So we're on the 4th wave already and waiting for the 5th one to reach.

or do you still want it to go to $50k after a whole year of waiting, with no bullish alternate count?

That would indicate the bear market if ever it goes back to $50k.

Better to be in a man cave, rather than a bear cave !


The Elliott Waves of Bitcoin are starting to act like commodity markets, in two behaviours...

1. The first waves are developing as Leading Diagonals and the fifth waves are developing as Ending Diagonals. This formation of Diagonal waves are overlapping 3-3-3 structures as opposed to impulsive 1-2-3-4-5 wave structures. Consequently, when such Leading/Ending Diagonals are developing in early stages, it is often an assumption to consider such waves as Irregular B-waves at first.

2. The fifth wave is extended and longest; i.e. INTERMEDIATE(5) within PRIMARY[5] is subdividing and extending, which started from the NOV-2024 low.

When the fifth wave is extending and the longest, a completion price target is derived as a Fibonacci 1.618 times the length from the start of first wave to the end of the third wave, projected from the low of the fourth wave. This provides a possible price target of approx $2.3M by around the year 2030, that is, assuming the current uptrend of INTERMEDIATE(5) wave continues along the trendline starting from the NOV-2024 low...

I hate bear's cave but I am preparing for it when its door comes. I typically like the predictions with high price even without analysis as long as I think of it that there's a possibility for it. And with the elliot wave, you're telling me that all we have to do is wait until 2030. Although the usual one is 2028-2029 if we'll basing it off on the cycle but it's exciting to see what these upcoming years are going to bring us with these waves.

[kunt3p3r]

This is like a man cave and people don't come here and try to look how enthusiastic what this elliott wave's show. I've seen some real life elliott wave traders and they're also bullish for Bitcoin. Looking at that with the projection of potentially getting $500k early 2026, it's still possible. So we're on the 4th wave already and waiting for the 5th one to reach.

or do you still want it to go to $50k after a whole year of waiting, with no bullish alternate count?

That would indicate the bear market if ever it goes back to $50k.

Better to be in a man cave, rather than a bear cave !


The Elliott Waves of Bitcoin are starting to act like commodity markets, in two behaviours...

1. The first waves are developing as Leading Diagonals and the fifth waves are developing as Ending Diagonals. This formation of Diagonal waves are overlapping 3-3-3 structures as opposed to impulsive 1-2-3-4-5 wave structures. Consequently, when such Leading/Ending Diagonals are developing in early stages, it is often an assumption to consider such waves as Irregular B-waves at first.

2. The fifth wave is extended and longest; i.e. INTERMEDIATE(5) within PRIMARY[5] is subdividing and extending, which started from the NOV-2024 low.

When the fifth wave is extending and the longest, a completion price target is derived as a Fibonacci 1.618 times the length from the start of first wave to the end of the third wave, projected from the low of the fourth wave. This provides a possible price target of approx $2.3M by around the year 2030, that is, assuming the current uptrend of INTERMEDIATE(5) wave continues along the trendline starting from the NOV-2024 low...

https://12345abcdewxyz.wordpress.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/07/20250718-btcusd.png

Greetings. According to this count primary 2-4 channel has broken. This bothers me. I am considering 15k low might be primary 4. W3 could count somehow imo.

[xxxx123abcxxxx]

Greetings. According to this count primary 2-4 channel has broken. This bothers me. I am considering 15k low might be primary 4. W3 could count somehow imo.

[kunt3p3r]

Greetings. According to this count primary 2-4 channel has broken. This bothers me. I am considering 15k low might be primary 4. W3 could count somehow imo.

https://i.ibb.co/S7P8Z7bw/EW-Channel.png

https://i.ibb.co/v4Np0VKz/2-5-1400x788.jpg

https://www.elliottwave.com/waveopedia/channeling/

Can W5 override this rule by touching or breaking channel lower band?

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https://i.ibb.co/v4Np0VKz/2-5-1400x788.jpg

https://www.elliottwave.com/waveopedia/channeling/

Can W5 override this rule by touching or breaking channel lower band?

Channelling is a guide, not a rule.
Channels may be broken, just like support and resistance is broken.

https://www.elliottwave.com/waveopedia/throw-over/

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[josegines]

Wow, I can't imagine a "2026 Elliott Wave" thread +.
"2027 Elliott Wave" thread +.
"2028 Elliott Wave" thread +.
"2029 Elliott Wave" thread.

[xxxx123abcxxxx]

Wow, I can't imagine a "2026 Elliott Wave" thread +.
"2027 Elliott Wave" thread +.
"2028 Elliott Wave" thread +.
"2029 Elliott Wave" thread.

Neither can I, its getting quite boring and we still can't get it right !

[pizzapotential]

I find the current long term count unlikely as that would have wave 5 be longer in time than wave 3 (primary). Having a bull market until 2029 seems absurd given what we've seen.

[xxxx123abcxxxx]

I find the current long term count unlikely as that would have wave 5 be longer in time than wave 3 (primary). Having a bull market until 2029 seems absurd given what we've seen.

There is no Elliott Wave rule violation: Elliott Waves are measured in points, not in percentages nor time; and hence, the third PRIMARY[3] wave isn't the smallest.

[pizzapotential]

The issue is not validity, it's likelihood.

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