Value bets

[GiftedMAN]

With what I have noticed about bookies, they really know how to make the odds perfect to how they will make money from people. Going for small leagues that you do not understand may even lead to more losses than going for big leagues that you understand. People only talk about valued bets, but it is not what it seems in reality.

The bookies are just doing their business they understand the game so well that sometimes they arrange an attractive odd to entice gamblers so that they will be moved to add a particular game to their slip but at the end the outcome of the game will not end well. The idea of going for small league or bush league as some may call it is not even a good choice cause in those leagues lies disappointments and uncertainties since the games can be manipulated.

[EluguHcman]

A value bet is when the odds offered by a bookmaker are higher than the actual likelihood of the outcome happening. This allows you to have an edge over the bookmakers. There are a few things you can do to find value bets.

I will say that I am not aware about this term "value bet" but if it is a set as described, then I think we can find this happened where an underdog is playing with the big teams and even as football outcomes might be unpredictable but mere estimating the teams strengths via historical performance and key players of the match, it is almost (if not believable) that the big team would win the match but the bookmaker have to load the big team with high odds.

Sometimes these are formats of the bookmakers to trick bettors to think otherwise because such cases are suspicions to rig the match if it is a sport bet.

[Smack That Ace]

However, gambling still depends on luck to win. So whatever it is, you still rely on your luck to win. People search for a way to win and they will try many ways to win, whether that is using a different strategy, choosing the sports they know, or how much the bet amount. They want to win and don't care how much money they will spend.

The probability of winning can be higher but the match can also change anytime. So they should realize how much money they want to use so they don't regret it when they lose.

What @OP suggest can be done but you should have the skill to analyze so you can know which team have a probability to win against the opponent. Many bettors will not think much about that. They just place on the team that they know can win from the opponent and place their bet.

Your luck might control your ticket that is agreeable however over time edge is really greater than our emotion. you have success only when the price beats true odds. You can even calculate it , frequently defeating the closing line CLV is the finest predictor for earning. Bookies do not completely equilibrium action they change because of public sentiment so pricing errors happen & predominantly when liquidity is thin. So yes, most gamblers do not affect the game however acting like it is just luck is not smart . So i could say we need trace CLV, shop lines & form smaller markets or else we will just be feeding them our money..

Regards

Duke

[rdluffy]

To be honest, I didn't know the term "value bet" was
Does anyone have a current value bet to show a good example? OP?

Sometimes I come across very good odds that I consider to be excellent risk/reward ratio, but I don't think they fit this value bet

When you find this bet, is it usually at just one bookmaker or at several that have the same odds?

[Z-tight]

When you find this bet, is it usually at just one bookmaker or at several that have the same odds?

You can compare the odds in different casinos, value bettors do a lot of research and they follow the sport very closely, if you do not have strong knowledge of the sport, you cannot apply value betting strategy.

If you follow the sport closely, you would be able to identify an odd that has a higher probability of success than the casino thinks. But to arrive at that, you need to do your own estimate/research and arrive at your own probability of success, if yours is higher, then that is a value bet.

[CryptoHeadlineNews]

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With these in mind, you can score a few consistent payouts. It is not just about choosing the winner but taking advantage of the odds presented.

But to be frankly speaking, it's not always easy as it sounds, because the same way it's high to identify a team that is likely to win a game, that's the same way it's also hard to identify a team that is also likely to lose too. And as such, in other to be able to profit from "Value bets", a gambler needs to be able to correctly guess which team to win or lose, irrespective of it's odd been higher or not. Because for example if a Sport booker made a odd for team "A" to win odd is 2.5 and has 40% chance. Whereas that of "B" to win is 2.2 odds and has 60% chance. And you did your investigation and noticed they both has 50/50% chance and you went further to bet on "A" and "B" later eventually won. You could have lost, despite choosing a valued bet. Hence, it's not always very important.

[Btcdeybodi]

I have come across these value bets and it's just as you said, those leagues that people do not gamble much that is where you will see a team that is very strong will be given high odds against a mediocre team in same league. I have won a bet with this value bets and the odds that was given to the stronger side was so high, i can't remember the exact odd again. There was even a time that someone discovered a value bet and shared it with gamblers and people started staking massively and it seems like the bookies found out and started reducing the odd till it got to an considerable level. These value bets can most times be found after the European league seasons have ended and the market is left with those leagues that people don't bet frequently and it can also be found in junior leagues.

The only downside on betting with lower league is the house edge and odds value is very low compared to popular league.

Bookie already assume that lower league has low bettor so they make the odds lower and unattractive. Also I notice that games on lower league is sometimes predictable compared to popular league because the team involved is composed of low level skill which means there’s less competition happening.

This is not completely correct because there are some of these lower leagues that bookies gives reasonable odds even when one of the teams is stronger than the others because most of these lower leagues are fond of scoring many goals by both teams involved in a match so it is sometimes difficult to know which side will win even though you check their statistics and no the stronger team. It's not as if people don't bet on those leagues just that they attract few bettors who might also be familiar with those leagues. I wouldn't agree that there are low competition is those lower leagues because if you monitor how those teams are doing you will see that the champions are different each season unlike some popular leagues that some set of teams keeps recycling the title within themselves without the small teams having a change to win the league title but in those lower leagues a team can win the league this season and it will take more than 5 years for them to win it again.