The Future of the Global Economy

[goldkingcoiner]

For now, AI is at a stage of "development" where it cannot replace highly professional jobs that require significant qualifications. But it can — and already does — replace job functions where everything follows the same template, with the same tasks repeated day after day. These jobs are usually held by people who are not used to fighting, adapting, or assimilating into new environments. That’s why calling on them to resist now, when AI is stepping on their toes and truly can replace them, is an effort unlikely to succeed. Because people, in general, are highly conformist and passive.

Wait until AI becomes sentient (self-aware), and nothing will be able to stand in its way. The future economy will be driven by AI, effectively paving the way to "laziness".

Or AI will decide that humanity is nothing but an inefficient, error-prone thing that should not exist. In which case it turns against humanity and will probably win, because it is so much smarter. Honestly, it could already be happening right now, in a secret fashion that we have not realized yet. Although even the alternative, as you mentioned, the pathway to laziness might actually do a lot more harm than good. What is the point of living beings that lose the drive to continue developing into a space-faring race, content to rather continue fulfilling their hedonistic urges.

Humanity could die out in the same way as in the mouse utopia experiment:

https://www.smithsonianmag.com/smart-news/this-old-experiment-with-mice-led-to-bleak-predictions-for-humanitys-future-180954423/

[Kagaru]

The world economy becoming more "globalist"? Right now, the world is turning "multi-polar" due to rising geopolitical tensions, so it's going to be quite a while before globalization happens. IF it does happen. I sure hope countries don't go crazy by increasing tariffs. That would add more burden to the economy as it increases inflation rates. Perhaps, AI and other innovative technologies will be able to improve the economy for the better? A healthy economy will enable a properous and fruitful society.

I'm certain physical stores/retailers, bank tellers/cashiers, and plastic debit/credit cards will no longer be relevant in the future. Everything will be 100% digital. With BlackRock showing interest in RWAs (Real World Assets), anything's possible.

Despite the geopolitical tensions among certain countries that are trying to lean towards the multipolar world, the economic aspect of the relations between various countries remains interconnected in terms of sales and technologies. Admittedly, it will transform the system of the finances management and the industry in the countries that will be more related to the exploitation of the imports and exports. Newer technologies, such as AI and digital assets, at the same time, have the potential to eliminate some of these issues and make new opportunities available. Existing banks and physical stores may disappear into nothingness as everything becomes digital and thus transactions may be more efficient and quicker but this has its own drawbacks and losses that needs to be dealt with. The thing is that definitely the future seems to be a combination of cooperation and competition on the global level, which is combined with the influence of technology.

[Churchillvv]

~~~

Wait until AI becomes sentient (self-aware), and nothing will be able to stand in its way. The future economy will be driven by AI, effectively paving the way to "laziness".

Or AI will decide that humanity is nothing but an inefficient, error-prone thing that should not exist. In which case it turns against humanity and will probably win, because it is so much smarter. Honestly, it could already be happening right now, in a secret fashion that we have not realized yet. Although even the alternative, as you mentioned, the pathway to laziness might actually do a lot more harm than good. What is the point of living beings that lose the drive to continue developing into a space-faring race, content to rather continue fulfilling their hedonistic urges.

Humanity could die out in the same way as in the mouse utopia experiment:

https://www.smithsonianmag.com/smart-news/this-old-experiment-with-mice-led-to-bleak-predictions-for-humanitys-future-180954423/

Consequently artificial intelligence operate with an algorithm that humans can and should override when the futuristic war might arise. You may not be in humanity to be smart as AI yet inventions can never beat the inventor, it has never been and won't be in our time.

The fact that humans seem to be enjoying the use of AI right now and voluntary giving out informations beyond privacy is the only fear I have however AI could nudge using those information to distablize humans actions with it eventually happens yet I believe that we always have a solution and when the need comes then the solution seats in.

[Etranger]

Despite the geopolitical tensions among certain countries that are trying to lean towards the multipolar world, the economic aspect of the relations between various countries remains interconnected in terms of sales and technologies. Admittedly, it will transform the system of the finances management and the industry in the countries that will be more related to the exploitation of the imports and exports. Newer technologies, such as AI and digital assets, at the same time, have the potential to eliminate some of these issues and make new opportunities available. Existing banks and physical stores may disappear into nothingness as everything becomes digital and thus transactions may be more efficient and quicker but this has its own drawbacks and losses that needs to be dealt with. The thing is that definitely the future seems to be a combination of cooperation and competition on the global level, which is combined with the influence of technology.

The development of technology is happening much faster than the adaptation of legal frameworks. You can already have highly advanced technologies that enable fast online transactions, but at the same time, the country’s legislation might not allow their implementation. This is clearly visible in the case of Switzerland. So, technological progress doesn’t necessarily mean that it will be implemented right away or have an immediate impact on our lives.

[Pablo-wood]

How do you think the global economy will change in the future? Will current geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainty (trade wars, rising inflation, etc) force us to such drastic changes (AI, QCs, etc)? How long do you think will it take for such changes to materialize?

Your input would be greatly appreciated. Thanks.

I am thinking geopolitical pressure may act as a catalyst, pushing societies to adopt quickly to advanced technologies faster than they would in more stable times. War and economic uncertainty disrupts tradional labour and productivity. When there is war and economic uncertainty fear tends to cloud the environment and people get to secure their lives first before thinking of productivity.

That is to say if global conflict and geopolitical tension persist humans will be forced to switch and depend heavily on the emerging technology.

[Fortify]

Have you ever thought how the world economy would look like in the future? I mean, once geopolitical conflicts come (Russia-Ukraine, Israel-Hamas, etc) to an end and inflation levels are "stabilized"? As we enter the digital realm, the economy will change in ways that were never thought possible. The emergence of AI, Quantum Computing, and Blockchain tech, will user in a new era of finance. AI will overtake most human jobs, while Quantum Computing will lead the role in automation and the discovery of cures for new diseases (with its vast computational power). Meanwhile, Blockchain will enable easy tracking of global supply chains, keep CBDCs in check, and more.

Most people will live off a basic salary paid by the government (otherwise known as Universal Basic Income), while AI will do all the work for us. Elon Musk held several talks about UBI, while Bill Gates predicted AI will overtake most jobs perfomed by humans in the future. Global population within 10-20 years from now will diminish due to low birth rates. We will live in a world where we won't truly own anything, as companies will have the power to decide what you will use and when to use it (like some sort of rent). With RWAs (Real World Assets) and NFTs, we're getting closer to such a reality.

How do you think the global economy will change in the future? Will current geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainty (trade wars, rising inflation, etc) force us to such drastic changes (AI, QCs, etc)? How long do you think will it take for such changes to materialize?

Your input would be greatly appreciated. Thanks.

Nobody can predict the future, the best we can do is try to ride the waves as they appear. There will always be peaks and troughs but there is no point getting hung up on the short term, if you plan for the long term i- especially financially, then you will keep on contributing through the good and bad times. On average you will see success if you invest in the right places and the stock market (aka all the biggest companies on the planet) is where most people invest and have their pensions too. Do not bother trying to guess what is going to happen next week or month, because it will leave you poor if you try to become a short term day trader against massive private equity companies who will gulp up your chunks of investment like loose chain. Make an investment plan and stick to it, but review it every 5 years and see if it still makes sense.

[peter0425]

For now, AI is at a stage of "development" where it cannot replace highly professional jobs that require significant qualifications. But it can — and already does — replace job functions where everything follows the same template, with the same tasks repeated day after day. These jobs are usually held by people who are not used to fighting, adapting, or assimilating into new environments. That’s why calling on them to resist now, when AI is stepping on their toes and truly can replace them, is an effort unlikely to succeed. Because people, in general, are highly conformist and passive.

Wait until AI becomes sentient (self-aware), and nothing will be able to stand in its way. The future economy will be driven by AI, effectively paving the way to "laziness".

Or AI will decide that humanity is nothing but an inefficient, error-prone thing that should not exist. In which case it turns against humanity and will probably win, because it is so much smarter. Honestly, it could already be happening right now, in a secret fashion that we have not realized yet. Although even the alternative, as you mentioned, the pathway to laziness might actually do a lot more harm than good. What is the point of living beings that lose the drive to continue developing into a space-faring race, content to rather continue fulfilling their hedonistic urges.

Humanity could die out in the same way as in the mouse utopia experiment:

https://www.smithsonianmag.com/smart-news/this-old-experiment-with-mice-led-to-bleak-predictions-for-humanitys-future-180954423/

Right now, I do not think that we are already too late. We can still stop but I doubt that there is anything that can stop the greed of humanity. Evolution will always occur and this time around the cost of evolution and innovation might come in the form of humanity. I hope that I am wrong and that the time where AI will be self conscious will still be a long time from now.. It is worrying but not a lot of people can see how it can be alarming because they are still too amazed at these impressive developments.

[passwordnow]

War and economic uncertainty disrupts tradional labour and productivity. When there is war and economic uncertainty fear tends to cloud the environment and people get to secure their lives first before thinking of productivity.

It also breaks down the stable economy of that country where labourers and citizens have been doing well. While this is unlikely to happen into established and first world countries. But being hit economically is what they're going to be worried with. Like worsening situations of mininum wage earners that can't be par anymore with the expenses and rents and so they have to work for multiple jobs. And it's true that if there is fear that's around them, the first thing that people have to do is to protect themselves and stop working and so, the economy is affected and everyone needs to evacuate if the war is about to explode.

[Abiky]

Or AI will decide that humanity is nothing but an inefficient, error-prone thing that should not exist. In which case it turns against humanity and will probably win, because it is so much smarter. Honestly, it could already be happening right now, in a secret fashion that we have not realized yet. Although even the alternative, as you mentioned, the pathway to laziness might actually do a lot more harm than good. What is the point of living beings that lose the drive to continue developing into a space-faring race, content to rather continue fulfilling their hedonistic urges.

Humanity could die out in the same way as in the mouse utopia experiment:
https://www.smithsonianmag.com/smart-news/this-old-experiment-with-mice-led-to-bleak-predictions-for-humanitys-future-180954423/

True. But aren't we "lightyears away" before AI becomes self-aware? For what I know, AI is still in is infancy. It's been nothing but overhyped. Hopefully, governments will regulate its use to help prevent things from spiraling out of control. Things like Grok calling itself the "MechaHitler" should be alarming to us.

I remember Elon Musk himself saying that he will integrate Grok AI into Tesla's Optimus robots. Now imagine that, alongside Neuralink's efforts to control the human brain with its microchip implant. I'd say the distant future doesn't seem as bright as we once thought it would be. At least we know, the global economy will recover at sometime in the future. It can't stay on the ground forever, right?

[goldkingcoiner]

Or AI will decide that humanity is nothing but an inefficient, error-prone thing that should not exist. In which case it turns against humanity and will probably win, because it is so much smarter. Honestly, it could already be happening right now, in a secret fashion that we have not realized yet. Although even the alternative, as you mentioned, the pathway to laziness might actually do a lot more harm than good. What is the point of living beings that lose the drive to continue developing into a space-faring race, content to rather continue fulfilling their hedonistic urges.

Humanity could die out in the same way as in the mouse utopia experiment:
https://www.smithsonianmag.com/smart-news/this-old-experiment-with-mice-led-to-bleak-predictions-for-humanitys-future-180954423/

True. But aren't we "lightyears away" before AI becomes self-aware? For what I know, AI is still in is infancy. It's been nothing but overhyped. Hopefully, governments will regulate its use to help prevent things from spiraling out of control. Things like Grok calling itself the "MechaHitler" should be alarming to us.

I remember Elon Musk himself saying that he will integrate Grok AI into Tesla's Optimus robots. Now imagine that, alongside Neuralink's efforts to control the human brain with its microchip implant. I'd say the distant future doesn't seem as bright as we once thought it would be. At least we know, the global economy will recover at sometime in the future. It can't stay on the ground forever, right?

Well, I do not think we will get self-aware AI because we are nowhere near solving the hard problem of consciousness. So saying AI is X years away from being aware like us is nothing but science fiction fantasy. AI is a indeed a overhyped, fancy set of algorithms.

But, it can still go haywire and it is indeed a powerful tool. So I do not think AI needs self-awareness to decide to destroy humanity. All it needs is malicious code at its core. That is the most dangerous part. Maybe not even malicious just misunderstood prompts might be enough....

[Franctoshi]

Well, I do not think we will get self-aware AI because we are nowhere near solving the hard problem of consciousness. So saying AI is X years away from being aware like us is nothing but science fiction fantasy. AI is a indeed a overhyped, fancy set of algorithms.

But, it can still go haywire and it is indeed a powerful tool. So I do not think AI needs self-awareness to decide to destroy humanity. All it needs is malicious code at its core. That is the most dangerous part. Maybe not even malicious just misunderstood prompts might be enough....

I also do not agree that AI will at some point be self aware, humans can create anything but to create what exactly looks like humans ,and have feelings will be impossible. But with a lot of information being fed or taught to many AI models, is where problems will arise, There’s an article I read that described how an AI model tried to escape human control, where they tell it to allow itself to shut down and 7% of the time they AI refused shutting itself down and in another article too, I read where another two different AI models notice each other and attempt commutation with fellow AI with a gibra language that no human can comprehend.

[coupable]

Nobody can predict the future, the best we can do is try to ride the waves as they appear. There will always be peaks and troughs but there is no point getting hung up on the short term, if you plan for the long term i- especially financially, then you will keep on contributing through the good and bad times. On average you will see success if you invest in the right places and the stock market (aka all the biggest companies on the planet) is where most people invest and have their pensions too. Do not bother trying to guess what is going to happen next week or month, because it will leave you poor if you try to become a short term day trader against massive private equity companies who will gulp up your chunks of investment like loose chain. Make an investment plan and stick to it, but review it every 5 years and see if it still makes sense.

But 5 years is a long period to test if your into a successful project or not. If you are in business whatever the industry for 5 successive years then this is a successful one. Better to make reviews if you notice a revenue decline for example to check the whole system or if any further development updates needed. Someone will tell that many businesses died after decennies of success running, but those projects didn't fail, means they didn't bankrupted. They simply closed their operations and move to a new sectir. See the example of Nokia how it has been developped and died.

[WillyAp]

Most people will live off a basic salary paid by the government (otherwise known as Universal Basic Income), while AI will do all the work for us.

How does that work? What you call AI is a LLM, it feeds of the internet and that content is more and more tainted my other LLM work.
In a few years you get content of LLM digested by another. LLM don't do work. They suffer illusions. Such as humans.
LLM need to be checked, always. 

[Cipherpz]

For now, AI is at a stage of "development" where it cannot replace highly professional jobs that require significant qualifications. But it can — and already does — replace job functions where everything follows the same template, with the same tasks repeated day after day. These jobs are usually held by people who are not used to fighting, adapting, or assimilating into new environments. That’s why calling on them to resist now, when AI is stepping on their toes and truly can replace them, is an effort unlikely to succeed. Because people, in general, are highly conformist and passive.

Wait until AI becomes sentient (self-aware), and nothing will be able to stand in its way. The future economy will be driven by AI, effectively paving the way to "laziness".

Or AI will decide that humanity is nothing but an inefficient, error-prone thing that should not exist. In which case it turns against humanity and will probably win, because it is so much smarter. Honestly, it could already be happening right now, in a secret fashion that we have not realized yet. Although even the alternative, as you mentioned, the pathway to laziness might actually do a lot more harm than good. What is the point of living beings that lose the drive to continue developing into a space-faring race, content to rather continue fulfilling their hedonistic urges.

Humanity could die out in the same way as in the mouse utopia experiment:

https://www.smithsonianmag.com/smart-news/this-old-experiment-with-mice-led-to-bleak-predictions-for-humanitys-future-180954423/

Civilizations that lose the ability to face challenges gradually perish. If we become aimlessly caught up in consumption and luxury, then we will create the basis for our own downfall. When all needs are easily met, the social structure collapses. The birth rate decreases, the sense of responsibility is lost, and finally the entire population begins to disappear. If we only immerse ourselves in luxury, consumption, and pleasure and lose the purpose of life, the struggle for life, and creativity, then no matter how advanced technology is, it will not be able to provide for us.

[Agbe]

For now, AI is at a stage of "development" where it cannot replace highly professional jobs that require significant qualifications. But it can — and already does — replace job functions where everything follows the same template, with the same tasks repeated day after day. These jobs are usually held by people who are not used to fighting, adapting, or assimilating into new environments. That’s why calling on them to resist now, when AI is stepping on their toes and truly can replace them, is an effort unlikely to succeed. Because people, in general, are highly conformist and passive.

Wait until AI becomes sentient (self-aware), and nothing will be able to stand in its way. The future economy will be driven by AI, effectively paving the way to "laziness".

Or AI will decide that humanity is nothing but an inefficient, error-prone thing that should not exist. In which case it turns against humanity and will probably win, because it is so much smarter. Honestly, it could already be happening right now, in a secret fashion that we have not realized yet. Although even the alternative, as you mentioned, the pathway to laziness might actually do a lot more harm than good. What is the point of living beings that lose the drive to continue developing into a space-faring race, content to rather continue fulfilling their hedonistic urges.

Humanity could die out in the same way as in the mouse utopia experiment:

https://www.smithsonianmag.com/smart-news/this-old-experiment-with-mice-led-to-bleak-predictions-for-humanitys-future-180954423/

Civilizations that lose the ability to face challenges gradually perish. If we become aimlessly caught up in consumption and luxury, then we will create the basis for our own downfall. When all needs are easily met, the social structure collapses. The birth rate decreases, the sense of responsibility is lost, and finally the entire population begins to disappear. If we only immerse ourselves in luxury, consumption, and pleasure and lose the purpose of life, the struggle for life, and creativity, then no matter how advanced technology is, it will not be able to provide for us.

I agree with you looking back at history and how nations which were super powers collapsed in the past it is clear that one contributing factor is how nations becomes lazy over time and so they don't think of production again but living a life of luxury which will lead to the basis for the economic down fall of such a nation  that you made mention of any nation that wants economic liberation will go the way of production

[Etranger]

I agree with you looking back at history and how nations which were super powers collapsed in the past it is clear that one contributing factor is how nations becomes lazy over time and so they don't think of production again but living a life of luxury which will lead to the basis for the economic down fall of such a nation  that you made mention of any nation that wants economic liberation will go the way of production

I wouldn’t say that laziness itself becomes the main reason for their downfall. In my view, it’s carelessness and excessive confidence in the future. This leads people to relax and lose their readiness for sudden challenges that require immediate engagement in the situation and the making of quick, effective, and often unpopular decisions.

[abhiseshakana]

I agree with you looking back at history and how nations which were super powers collapsed in the past it is clear that one contributing factor is how nations becomes lazy over time and so they don't think of production again but living a life of luxury which will lead to the basis for the economic down fall of such a nation  that you made mention of any nation that wants economic liberation will go the way of production

Laziness may be a symptom, not a root cause. Poor conditions and a weakening economy create a culture of resignation, which can appear as laziness. A nation's productive culture can change drastically if the reward system is based on status, inheritance rather than productivity, unsupportive state policies, and the shared trauma of a prolonged crisis create a society focused on survival rather than development.

Structural incentives to work hard are necessary to foster diligence. When productivity is low, there is no capital inflow, employment decreases, followed by a decline in skills, which means low productivity (a vicious economic cycle). Laziness can indeed be the beginning of downfall. When a society is accustomed to subsisting on natural resources without innovation, the ruling class enjoys a surplus and inhibits change that requires hard work. A productive culture disappears because the new generation has never been trained to deal with crises.

So, downfall and laziness are often a two-way street. When the economy falls, structural laziness emerges, while laziness in leaders and workers accelerates the downfall.

[WillyAp]

Laziness may be a symptom, not a root cause.

I disagree. Laziness is responsible for delivering half a job done. Hoping that the ordering person/company won't notice.
Laziness is responsible for delivering too late and often too little. 
Laziness is responsible for depression.
Laziness is responsible for crime, thinking it is less work than just stealing.