Bitcoin Forum
October 17, 2025, 06:29:10 PM *
News: Latest Bitcoin Core release: 30.0 [Torrent]
 
   Home   Help Search Login Register More  
Pages: « 1 [2]  All
  Print  
Author Topic: Have you ever applied the Kelly criterion while gambling?  (Read 188 times)
KTChampions
Legendary
*
Online Online

Activity: 2856
Merit: 2184


Leading Crypto Sports Betting & Casino Platform


View Profile
October 08, 2025, 06:12:23 PM
 #21

The Kelly Criterion defines that a gambler should never bet more than 1-3% of their total bankroll on a single bet. This mathematical model aims to protect you the gambler, from inevitable losing streaks that are a part of value betting.
It means that in essence, a gambler's perceived probability of winning a bet should be way higher than the probability of odds offered by the bookmakers, if calculated correctly.

This mathematical model is mostly applied by professional gamblers who have studied gambling for so long and are successful at it.

Visit this link to read up more on it:
https://onemoneyway.com/en/dictionary/kelly-criterion/

My question is this;
* Have you ever had the opportunity to apply this Kelly criterion model in gambling or do you intend to do so?

* Do you think gamblers should learn to adopt other models and concept strategies like Kelly criterion, to become more successful at gambling?

Are you sure we're talking about 1-3% of your deposit and not 10-30%? If I remember correctly, the Kelly criterion is all about balancing risk while maintaining profit. If you bet 1-3% of your deposit, you'll be permanently losing money relative to the optimal strategy.
As for me, yes, I've been wanting to try it for a while (naturally, in the 10-30% range, not 1-3%), but I need to set aside some time. For now, I'm playing a simple strategy that doesn't require much thought—trying to achieve a 100x multiplier by going all-in all the time.

..Stake.com..   ▄████████████████████████████████████▄
   ██ ▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄            ▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄ ██  ▄████▄
   ██ ▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀ ██████████ ▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀ ██  ██████
   ██ ██████████ ██      ██ ██████████ ██   ▀██▀
   ██ ██      ██ ██████  ██ ██      ██ ██    ██
   ██ ██████  ██ █████  ███ ██████  ██ ████▄ ██
   ██ █████  ███ ████  ████ █████  ███ ████████
   ██ ████  ████ ██████████ ████  ████ ████▀
   ██ ██████████ ▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄ ██████████ ██
   ██            ▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀            ██ 
   ▀█████████▀ ▄████████████▄ ▀█████████▀
  ▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄███  ██  ██  ███▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄
 ██████████████████████████████████████████
▄▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▄
█  ▄▀▄             █▀▀█▀▄▄
█  █▀█             █  ▐  ▐▌
█       ▄██▄       █  ▌  █
█     ▄██████▄     █  ▌ ▐▌
█    ██████████    █ ▐  █
█   ▐██████████▌   █ ▐ ▐▌
█    ▀▀██████▀▀    █ ▌ █
█     ▄▄▄██▄▄▄     █ ▌▐▌
█                  █▐ █
█                  █▐▐▌
█                  █▐█
▀▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▀█
▄▄█████████▄▄
▄██▀▀▀▀█████▀▀▀▀██▄
▄█▀       ▐█▌       ▀█▄
██         ▐█▌         ██
████▄     ▄█████▄     ▄████
████████▄███████████▄████████
███▀    █████████████    ▀███
██       ███████████       ██
▀█▄       █████████       ▄█▀
▀█▄    ▄██▀▀▀▀▀▀▀██▄  ▄▄▄█▀
▀███████         ███████▀
▀█████▄       ▄█████▀
▀▀▀███▄▄▄███▀▀▀
..PLAY NOW..
Findingnemo
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 2856
Merit: 1033


Leading Crypto Sports Betting & Casino Platform


View Profile
October 08, 2025, 06:16:05 PM
 #22

This is the first time I am coming across a term.

And no, I don't follow this, my bet amount will not depend much on my bankroll, if I deposit $50 then I may bet the whole $50 on a game or split into two or 3 at max, and bet means effectively I am betting 33%-100% on a single bet rather 3% so it's not my type.

Probably it will be useful for players who prefer dice or any instant casino games which will help them to stretch their gambling session and reducing the potential risk due to a bad streak and also increase the chance of wins by giving more number of betting opportunities.

..Stake.com..   ▄████████████████████████████████████▄
   ██ ▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄            ▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄ ██  ▄████▄
   ██ ▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀ ██████████ ▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀ ██  ██████
   ██ ██████████ ██      ██ ██████████ ██   ▀██▀
   ██ ██      ██ ██████  ██ ██      ██ ██    ██
   ██ ██████  ██ █████  ███ ██████  ██ ████▄ ██
   ██ █████  ███ ████  ████ █████  ███ ████████
   ██ ████  ████ ██████████ ████  ████ ████▀
   ██ ██████████ ▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄ ██████████ ██
   ██            ▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀            ██ 
   ▀█████████▀ ▄████████████▄ ▀█████████▀
  ▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄███  ██  ██  ███▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄
 ██████████████████████████████████████████
▄▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▄
█  ▄▀▄             █▀▀█▀▄▄
█  █▀█             █  ▐  ▐▌
█       ▄██▄       █  ▌  █
█     ▄██████▄     █  ▌ ▐▌
█    ██████████    █ ▐  █
█   ▐██████████▌   █ ▐ ▐▌
█    ▀▀██████▀▀    █ ▌ █
█     ▄▄▄██▄▄▄     █ ▌▐▌
█                  █▐ █
█                  █▐▐▌
█                  █▐█
▀▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▀█
▄▄█████████▄▄
▄██▀▀▀▀█████▀▀▀▀██▄
▄█▀       ▐█▌       ▀█▄
██         ▐█▌         ██
████▄     ▄█████▄     ▄████
████████▄███████████▄████████
███▀    █████████████    ▀███
██       ███████████       ██
▀█▄       █████████       ▄█▀
▀█▄    ▄██▀▀▀▀▀▀▀██▄  ▄▄▄█▀
▀███████         ███████▀
▀█████▄       ▄█████▀
▀▀▀███▄▄▄███▀▀▀
..PLAY NOW..
Dunamisx
Hero Member
*****
Online Online

Activity: 1386
Merit: 599


Leading Crypto Sports Betting & Casino Platform


View Profile
October 08, 2025, 06:20:35 PM
 #23

* Have you ever had the opportunity to apply this Kelly criterion model in gambling or do you intend to do so?

No, I haven't, but wouldn't mind if placed with an opportunity of giving a try one day.

* Do you think gamblers should learn to adopt other models and concept strategies like Kelly criterion, to become more successful at gambling?

As we know gambling for what it is and has always been, could this make a difference, after all the various strategies and approaches we may consider, we still stand a chance of taking the risk of winning or losing because this is gambling.

..Stake.com..   ▄████████████████████████████████████▄
   ██ ▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄            ▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄ ██  ▄████▄
   ██ ▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀ ██████████ ▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀ ██  ██████
   ██ ██████████ ██      ██ ██████████ ██   ▀██▀
   ██ ██      ██ ██████  ██ ██      ██ ██    ██
   ██ ██████  ██ █████  ███ ██████  ██ ████▄ ██
   ██ █████  ███ ████  ████ █████  ███ ████████
   ██ ████  ████ ██████████ ████  ████ ████▀
   ██ ██████████ ▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄ ██████████ ██
   ██            ▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀            ██ 
   ▀█████████▀ ▄████████████▄ ▀█████████▀
  ▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄███  ██  ██  ███▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄
 ██████████████████████████████████████████
▄▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▄
█  ▄▀▄             █▀▀█▀▄▄
█  █▀█             █  ▐  ▐▌
█       ▄██▄       █  ▌  █
█     ▄██████▄     █  ▌ ▐▌
█    ██████████    █ ▐  █
█   ▐██████████▌   █ ▐ ▐▌
█    ▀▀██████▀▀    █ ▌ █
█     ▄▄▄██▄▄▄     █ ▌▐▌
█                  █▐ █
█                  █▐▐▌
█                  █▐█
▀▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▀█
▄▄█████████▄▄
▄██▀▀▀▀█████▀▀▀▀██▄
▄█▀       ▐█▌       ▀█▄
██         ▐█▌         ██
████▄     ▄█████▄     ▄████
████████▄███████████▄████████
███▀    █████████████    ▀███
██       ███████████       ██
▀█▄       █████████       ▄█▀
▀█▄    ▄██▀▀▀▀▀▀▀██▄  ▄▄▄█▀
▀███████         ███████▀
▀█████▄       ▄█████▀
▀▀▀███▄▄▄███▀▀▀
..PLAY NOW..
macson
Full Member
***
Offline Offline

Activity: 1358
Merit: 165



View Profile WWW
October 08, 2025, 06:37:17 PM
 #24

I don't apply this strategy to my gambling, but my approach to gambling is quite similar in that I don't bet more than my bankroll on a single bet. I usually bet 3-5% of my bankroll, sometimes even up to 10% if I feel the bet is good, but definitely not more than my bankroll.

Because I think bankroll management is quite important, since if you understand how to manage your bankroll then you avoid blowing up your bankroll in one go. It is not to achieve success in gambling that you do this, it is only to prevent your financial ruin, because people who use their bankroll at one time will usually spend more money later and that can lead to irresponsible gambling.


Samlucky O
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 812
Merit: 560


The great city of God 🔥


View Profile WWW
October 08, 2025, 06:53:52 PM
 #25

The Kelly Criterion defines that a gambler should never bet more than 1-3% of their total bankroll on a single bet. This mathematical model aims to protect you the gambler, from inevitable losing streaks that are a part of value betting.
It means that in essence, a gambler's perceived probability of winning a bet should be way higher than the probability of odds offered by the bookmakers, if calculated correctly.

This mathematical model is mostly applied by professional gamblers who have studied gambling for so long and are successful at it.
Well it's a nice strategy that every gambler will like to adopt, provided that it is a strategy that will increase the chances of winning than loses.

My question is this;
* Have you ever had the opportunity to apply this Kelly criterion model in gambling or do you intend to do so?
The thing is that I have been so careful in my betting pattern to an extent that my strategy resonate with this that of this Kelly criterion, but however since I don't know the name I never knew I have already adopted it long time ago. As a matter of fact I don't intend to try it out since I have already used it severally but didn't know the name.

* Do you think gamblers should learn to adopt other models and concept strategies like Kelly criterion, to become more successful at gambling?
Well any strategy that is beneficial to gamblers is what they adopt. One thing also is that this strategy has no guarantee that it will favor everyone that used it. I still maintain on the stand that gambling is based on luck regardless of the types of strategy people adopt and think it is helpful.

R


▀▀▀▀▀▀▀██████▄▄
████████████████
▀▀▀▀█████▀▀▀█████
████████▌███▐████
▄▄▄▄█████▄▄▄█████
████████████████
▄▄▄▄▄▄▄██████▀▀
LLBIT|
4,000+ GAMES
███████████████████
██████████▀▄▀▀▀████
████████▀▄▀██░░░███
██████▀▄███▄▀█▄▄▄██
███▀▀▀▀▀▀█▀▀▀▀▀▀███
██░░░░░░░░█░░░░░░██
██▄░░░░░░░█░░░░░▄██
███▄░░░░▄█▄▄▄▄▄████
▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀
█████████
▀████████
░░▀██████
░░░░▀████
░░░░░░███
▄░░░░░███
▀█▄▄▄████
░░▀▀█████
▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀
█████████
░░░▀▀████
██▄▄▀░███
█░░█▄░░██
░████▀▀██
█░░█▀░░██
██▀▀▄░███
░░░▄▄████
▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀
||.
|
▄▄████▄▄
▀█▀
▄▀▀▄▀█▀
▄░░▄█░██░█▄░░▄
█░▄█░▀█▄▄█▀░█▄░█
▀▄░███▄▄▄▄███░▄▀
▀▀█░░░▄▄▄▄░░░█▀▀
░░██████░░█
█░░░░▀▀░░░░█
▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄
▄░█████▀▀█████░▄
▄███████░██░███████▄
▀▀██████▄▄██████▀▀
▀▀████████▀▀
.
▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄
░▀▄░▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄░▄▀
███▀▄▀█████████████████▀▄▀
█████▀▄░▄▄▄▄▄███░▄▄▄▄▄▄▀
███████▀▄▀██████░█▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄
█████████▀▄▄░███▄▄▄▄▄▄░▄▀
███████████░███████▀▄▀
███████████░██▀▄▄▄▄▀
███████████░▀▄▀
████████████▄▀
███████████
▄▄███████▄▄
▄████▀▀▀▀▀▀▀████▄
▄███▀▄▄███████▄▄▀███▄
▄██▀▄█▀▀▀█████▀▀▀█▄▀██▄
▄██▀▄███░░░▀████░███▄▀██▄
███░████░░░░░▀██░████░███
███░████░█▄░░░░▀░████░███
███░████░███▄░░░░████░███
▀██▄▀███░█████▄░░███▀▄██▀
▀██▄▀█▄▄▄██████▄██▀▄██▀
▀███▄▀▀███████▀▀▄███▀
▀████▄▄▄▄▄▄▄████▀
▀▀███████▀▀
OFFICIAL PARTNERSHIP
SOUTHAMPTON FC
FAZE CLAN
SSC NAPOLI
Floxynice
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 532
Merit: 291



View Profile
October 08, 2025, 07:00:31 PM
 #26

The Kelly Criterion defines that a gambler should never bet more than 1-3% of their total bankroll on a single bet. This mathematical model aims to protect you the gambler, from inevitable losing streaks that are a part of value betting.
It means that in essence, a gambler's perceived probability of winning a bet should be way higher than the probability of odds offered by the bookmakers, if calculated correctly.
Never knew there is a name for this strategy. I must have unconsciously applied the Kelly criterion without knowing it was a strategy. Going by the comments, I am still trying to understand why some gamblers don’t rate this strategy.

I don't think this strategy is about profit maximisation, it is rather more about effective risks management. I recommend that gamblers should learn to embrace strategies like this. While trying to have fun or make some quick money, they should not put themselves at risks too.

R


▀▀▀▀▀▀▀██████▄▄
████████████████
▀▀▀▀█████▀▀▀█████
████████▌███▐████
▄▄▄▄█████▄▄▄█████
████████████████
▄▄▄▄▄▄▄██████▀▀
LLBIT|
4,000+ GAMES
███████████████████
██████████▀▄▀▀▀████
████████▀▄▀██░░░███
██████▀▄███▄▀█▄▄▄██
███▀▀▀▀▀▀█▀▀▀▀▀▀███
██░░░░░░░░█░░░░░░██
██▄░░░░░░░█░░░░░▄██
███▄░░░░▄█▄▄▄▄▄████
▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀
█████████
▀████████
░░▀██████
░░░░▀████
░░░░░░███
▄░░░░░███
▀█▄▄▄████
░░▀▀█████
▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀
█████████
░░░▀▀████
██▄▄▀░███
█░░█▄░░██
░████▀▀██
█░░█▀░░██
██▀▀▄░███
░░░▄▄████
▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀
|||
▄▄████▄▄
▀█▀
▄▀▀▄▀█▀
▄░░▄█░██░█▄░░▄
█░▄█░▀█▄▄█▀░█▄░█
▀▄░███▄▄▄▄███░▄▀
▀▀█░░░▄▄▄▄░░░█▀▀
░░██████░░█
█░░░░▀▀░░░░█
▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄
▄░█████▀▀█████░▄
▄███████░██░███████▄
▀▀██████▄▄██████▀▀
▀▀████████▀▀
.
▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄
░▀▄░▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄░▄▀
███▀▄▀█████████████████▀▄▀
█████▀▄░▄▄▄▄▄███░▄▄▄▄▄▄▀
███████▀▄▀██████░█▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄
█████████▀▄▄░███▄▄▄▄▄▄░▄▀
███████████░███████▀▄▀
███████████░██▀▄▄▄▄▀
███████████░▀▄▀
████████████▄▀
███████████
▄▄███████▄▄
▄████▀▀▀▀▀▀▀████▄
▄███▀▄▄███████▄▄▀███▄
▄██▀▄█▀▀▀█████▀▀▀█▄▀██▄
▄██▀▄███░░░▀████░███▄▀██▄
███░████░░░░░▀██░████░███
███░████░█▄░░░░▀░████░███
███░████░███▄░░░░████░███
▀██▄▀███░█████▄░░███▀▄██▀
▀██▄▀█▄▄▄██████▄██▀▄██▀
▀███▄▀▀███████▀▀▄███▀
▀████▄▄▄▄▄▄▄████▀
▀▀███████▀▀
OFFICIAL PARTNERSHIP
SOUTHAMPTON FC
FAZE CLAN
SSC NAPOLI
taufik123
Legendary
*
artcontest
Offline Offline

Activity: 3052
Merit: 2076


Rollbit.com | #1 Solana Casino


View Profile
October 08, 2025, 08:03:42 PM
 #27

I even just found out about gambling strategies like this, It never even occurred to me because I just play without caring about anything.
Only use $5 to play and bet just for entertainment, But don't care about strategies that I find complicated, and I'm not a professional either.

A professional would probably apply it, but it certainly takes a wide variety of calculations and excellent management to be successful in gambling,
but if only small players and only for entertainment, such a strategy is unthinkable.

 
█▄
R


▀▀██████▄▄
████████████████
▀█████▀▀▀█████
████████▌███▐████
▄█████▄▄▄█████
████████████████
▄▄██████▀▀
LLBIT▀█ 
  TH#1 SOLANA CASINO  
████████████▄
▀▀██████▀▀███
██▄▄▀▀▄▄████
████████████
██████████
███▀████████
▄▄█████████
████████████
████████████
████████████
████████████
█████████████
████████████▀
████████████▄
▀▀▀▀▀▀▀██████
████████████
███████████
██▄█████████
████▄███████
████████████
█░▀▀████████
▀▀██████████
█████▄█████
████▀▄▀████
▄▄▄▄▄▄▄██████
████████████▀
........5,000+........
GAMES
 
......INSTANT......
WITHDRAWALS
..........HUGE..........
REWARDS
 
............VIP............
PROGRAM
 .
   PLAY NOW    
WhoYouCantKill
Full Member
***
Offline Offline

Activity: 350
Merit: 142


Need a Campaign Manager? Hhampuz is just a PM away


View Profile
October 09, 2025, 08:02:29 PM
 #28

True, the Kelly Criterion is a strong model for managing bankroll and reducing risk. I have known lots of gamblers who are experienced who use it very well as it encourages discipline and calculated risk-taking. Though it is not perfect, yet it assist in avoiding betting overdue. Gamblers that take their craft with seriousness has to learn models such as this, because it promotes smarter, data-driven decisions rather than depending on mere luck or emotion.

Cantsay
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 1274
Merit: 632


Bitcoin Casino Est. 2013


View Profile WWW
October 10, 2025, 10:15:32 PM
 #29

For someone who uses a very small bankroll like me I really don’t bother with all these stuffs, there are times when I go all out with my entire bankroll and just bet everything, it’s not because i don’t know about the importance of having a good bankroll management but because I really don’t think that amount is enough for me to start stressing myself and calculating what to bet.

Like I have said multiple times across different threads, sometimes I can deposit an amount that would last me for just 5 bets or even lower or I can just deposit th minimum amount allowed, so in such cases I don’t have to start looking for which strategy to make it last long because it was never my intention to do so to begin with.

███▄▀██▄▄
░░▄████▄▀████ ▄▄▄
░░████▄▄▄▄░░█▀▀
███ ██████▄▄▀█▌
░▄░░███▀████
░▐█░░███░██▄▄
░░▄▀░████▄▄▄▀█
░█░▄███▀████ ▐█
▀▄▄███▀▄██▄
░░▄██▌░░██▀
░▐█▀████ ▀██
░░█▌██████ ▀▀██▄
░░▀███
▄▄██▀▄███
▄▄▄████▀▄████▄░░
▀▀█░░▄▄▄▄████░░
▐█▀▄▄█████████
████▀███░░▄░
▄▄██░███░░█▌░
█▀▄▄▄████░▀▄░░
█▌████▀███▄░█░
▄██▄▀███▄▄▀
▀██░░▐██▄░░
██▀████▀█▌░
▄██▀▀██████▐█░░
███▀░░
Pages: « 1 [2]  All
  Print  
 
Jump to:  

Powered by MySQL Powered by PHP Powered by SMF 1.1.19 | SMF © 2006-2009, Simple Machines Valid XHTML 1.0! Valid CSS!