The lower the price goes, the less risky to buy Bitcoins

[Abelly]

I very much agree that the lower the price goes the less risky to buy Bitcoin but the question is how do we know how low price will dip at anytime. If we cannot accurately answer this question it means that we can buy when we have funds to buy. At the price you buy Bitcoin now will become dip sooner or later so why wait for the perfect buying opportunity that you don't know when or if it can happen at your expectation.

If every investors are sure that in the next few days Bitcoin will dip 30% from it's current price we will all relax and wait. The reality is that we don't know that is why I prefer DCA method of buying, I believe that Bitcoin will continue to reach ATH and give me profit.

No one can say for sure when the price will drop, this is the natural uncertainty of the market, many people wait for years to find the perfect entry, and the opportunity is missed. The reality is that the market will always fluctuate, and no matter what price you buy at, there is always a chance that it will go down in the future.

This is exactly why DCA is the most realistic strategy for many investors. Buying short when you have the funds reduces the pressure of market timing. If everyone really knew that the price would drop by 30%, the market would have reflected that information in the price long ago, because if everyone had waited, the price would never have dropped that much.

I believe, like you, that Bitcoin will reach a new ATH in the long run. So buying slowly and regularly is the most logical way.

[uche6215]

The lower the price goes, the less risky it is to buy Bitcoins. Is this phrase true?

Bitcoin investment risk is at all time but you benefit more when you buy the low price and the risk comes in the purchasing time of the lower price will depends on the time frame of the investment as you said in the second paragraph of your Op. If the investor is for short term investor, there would be very high risk and also al depends on the fast recovering movement of bitcoin. If it is fast then the investor would make profit but if it is slow then he has to extend his plan for a long term.

[Ambatman]

I want to have this confidence where I won't believe any price currently is a top but a discount
I stopped accumulating personally since we crossed $100K and have started again though under $85K.
Am I sure we won't go lower? No I'm not but doesn't stop me from adding more. Since I understand the risk as well as the reward.

Like you said volatility is reducing, if you check the dips per year you'd notice that it's reducing
Year by year.
Chances of Bitcoin crossing $200K is higher than it falling to $40K
So I'd take my chance and add more now.

[coolcoinz]

- 30% that we will have a heavily bearish next year. I would consider everything significantly (10% less) below the 2021 ATH (69k) as "heavily bearish". In short: a fall below 60k. This could happen for example if Strategy really runs into difficulties (unlikely in 2025/26,  but may become a fear for 2028+). Or if another big 2022 style hack occurs. Or if Tether falls.
- 25% lightly bearish scenarios, like a dip into the 60-75k territory and then a very slow recovery.
- 25% that the bull market will continue and until early 2026 we'll see 100k+ prices  again.
- 20% of a sideways scenario, either in the current region (around 75-90ish k) or a bit higher (e.g. around 100k). The argument for this scenario is that there may be neither overwhelmingly positive nor negative trends in adoption. And it would be basically a continuation of the lowering volatility pattern.

Definitely too bearish for my taste

IMO there's literally not a single reason apart from maybe a stock market crash that would explain a heavily bearish scenario. You gave it 30%? Why?
Also, to me a 75-90k is not a real sideways scenario. We've made it above 90k just days after you've posted it. There's really high chance that we'll go over 100k next year in a sideways scenario.
For me a sideways market is any price below the ATH, so going to 126k and getiong rejected back to 100k is a sideways market, not a bull market.

Personally, I'd give it maybe 10% of a 50% crash from the ATH.
40% that this is going to be a sideways year with price ranging from 70k at the lows to the ATH, but not breaking it.
50% that we'll make a new high in 2026.

That said, of course 80k is a great price to buy, especially that we've reached all time lows in extreme fear, the levels seen during the FTX collapse. You rarely get an opprtunity like that.

[promise444c5]

I personally DCA, the forum money as well is another DCA on its own.. I’m not usually worried about the upside or the downside either, only concerned with the unit.. I do get the dip sometimes, but I feel I buy it too early, yet my DCA still covers the long ones

Only in the "heavily bearish" scenario a buy in the 80k region is really a loss in the mid-term.

Well, not really a loss.. Like I already mentioned, the unit is what really matters. When you focus on the price too much, you might end up thinking you’re at a loss and that might hinder you from buying more at that moment . Yeah, maybe at that moment, comparing with the fiat prices, but just as you’ve also mentioned, it will still recover so long as they can wait it out.