2014-04-12 CoinDesk - Why Bitcoin is Fated for Boom and Bust

[TheIrishman]

Why Bitcoin is Fated for Boom and Bust

http://www.coindesk.com/bitcoin-fated-boom-bust/

<< Bob Swarup has extensive global experience in financial markets, macroeconomics and regulation, and  recently released his new book Money Mania: Booms, Panics, and Busts from Ancient Rome to the Great Meltdown. Here, he presents his view on why bitcoin is fated to repeat the perennial cycle of boom and bust. >>

[hilariousandco]

Great read. Hate to say it but he's probably mostly right.

I especially agree with this:

Bitcoin’s success should be measured not by the current value or exchange rate vis-a-vis the dollar or others, but rather by the growth in the real economy. That means businesses being able to transact easily in bitcoins, people being able to execute everyday transactions, institutions accepting it as a valid form of exchange, and so on.

[bryant.coleman]

A $hitty article from another skeptic.

It is anarchic and the tool of choice for the modern cyber criminal. It destabilises our attempts to forge a more resilient economy, particularly after the last few years of financial turmoil, with Mt. Gox being but the latest example to show how truly Wild West this digital frontier is.

[TaunSew]

What bust?  Had you bought in a year ago at $100 you saw a return of 400%, which beats anything you can get from a portfolio (2% to 20%) or the bank (laughable interest rates).


The international remittance industry is worth $500 billion and the international black market (which isn't all Mafia - often it's ordinary people paid under the table) is worth $10 trillion and then Bitcoin can also attract interest from the retirement funds ($20 trillion) and Gold Enthusiasts ($1.25 trillion) who are looking to diversify.

Right now Bitcoin and all the alternate coins are small blips compared to their true potential where a $1 trillion capitalization in two decades is an achievable goal and that's coming from a pessimist.

 

[bryant.coleman]

What bust?  Had you bought in a year ago at $100 you saw a return of 400%, which beats anything you can get from a portfolio (2% to 20%) or the bank (laughable interest rates).

Why $100? I bought them in 2013 January, for just $15 / coin.
I don't know whether the 1 trillion USD is possible or not, but in the near future we can expect a significant rise from the current $ 5 billion market cap.