Last summer's $50 -$100 prices were low relative to adoption. I don't think that's the case now. $500 is more likely ahead of adoption due to speculation.
I still think there will be a speculative bubble mid to late summer (July-Sept timeframe), but only to the $2k to $2.5k range.
I'm thinking along the same lines, although I do think if we get another speculative bubble, we are going to see $3k plus quickly. The amount of people and money paying attention now is much more vast than it was last November.