Think I've understood this and generally agree with it, but some clarification would be good as I think a couple of points were a bit confused.
We've already hit $420, which is the support you say was established a few months back. However you seem to be anticipating a further retracement to this level (and below), since this is your target buy price.
What does it mean that the $420 mark was so significantly breached, albeit for a short time? And the fact that your buy target is some way beneath it?
Just seems like there's some loose ends to tie up there.
I'd expect minor capitulations to the 420 range on the way up, 420 would be my great entry target 450-460 would be a more risky but far more likely target. I always say don't take a trade you don't love. I'd rather miss an opportunity than take an overtly risky entry.
I ended up buying at around ~400