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There have only been two bubbles in bitcoin. Bubbles are actually a series of multiple bull-runs (about 4). Inbetween bull-runs are short consolidations and inbetween bubbles are deep prolonged crashes. It's somewhat like EW theory. Every rise in itself is not a "bubble" - this is a misnomer.
We already had 3 bubbles:
y-axis is ln(price/exponential trend)
(see my thread for details:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=470453.0)
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There's are sure a lot of conclusions on this forum and a whole branch of 'bitcoiner trader science' based on a perceived and assumed 'trendline', which in reality is all based on guesswork and a misapplication of this one straight line of an average of the past, or some formula that risto the $1,000,000-per-coin bull wrote. I don't base any of my TA on this 'trendline', it is not something that any real traders acknowledge anywhere outside of this forum.
Anyway, my drawing is based on a series of minor waves within 2 larger waves. A large wave (or 'bubble') is a collection of smaller waves. A small wave is defined as one that only has a 1-3 month consolidation after it and does not enter into a downtrend on the 1-week chart, and has the next small wave within the same large wave leading to an even higher high. A large wave is defined as one that has a 4-6+ month downtrend on the weekly chart and probably has the next bull right not leading to a higher high than its last bull run. This weekly-chart-type downtrend has only happened twice in bitcoin, 2011 and now.
I tend to agree with jl2012. Or more accurately, I believe a case can equally be made for 2 "bubble cycles" in which the last one consisted of two segments, or 3 cycles in which the 2nd and 3rd were separated only by an unusually brief correction. That view doesn't have to rely on any log trend line, but can e.g. be argued for by looking at volatility:
That is convincing thank you. Volatility means a lot in any market.
It means too, that if we have to see the minimum volatility between 2 bubbles, there will be a long time before the next rise. Volatility is still very high.
No, look again... That graph is gox data, so the end of the last volatility spike is irrelevant. Last time I checked, weekly bbw was quite down again, so by volatility alone the December cycle could end already. But it's not a precise enough indicator to say when a correction is done, it can only tell that well after the fact.
Thanks i didn t see that it was gox data. Ok.
Though i wasn t saying that it s a good indicator to enter
but a good indicator to wait for an entry.
Any way, i did enter long ago, when we got under 400.
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