A worthwhile flag trade setup formed on the daily chart

[ibankbitcoins]

http://ibankbitcoins.com/sites/default/files/resize/users/user1/6-10-2014-chart-946x439.jpg

You can see clearly that we are in a flag right now. Breakout above 680, and I am looking to buy. Target is around 800usd/btc based on measured move. I like this setup because it has a predefined risk, reward is based on a likely hood of reaching 800btc. With a stop at 620 dollars, the defined risk is 60.

During this consolidation, you can clearly see volume tapering off. People are taking profits here, selling is light but surely buyers are not letting this thing slide. Again, I won't be interested if it collapsed here, only interested if it makes new high above 680. If you like more details on technical analysis about bitcoin, you can follow me on my blog or twitter.

PS: I used bitcoinchart.com graph with bit-e data daily chart.

[Raystonn]

You didn't notice we dropped out of the triangle/flag already on bitstamp?

[ibankbitcoins]

You didn't notice we dropped out of the triangle/flag already on bitstamp?

Care to elaborate? I see price stable @640

[Raystonn]

The current daily candle has a low beyond that of the last 3 days.  The triangle was clearly broken.

[ibankbitcoins]

From my chart, it is clearly is not, a matter of subjectivity and you do have a point.

More importantly, volume and volatility hasn't picked up whether its broken or not. Hence breakout up or down is still valid.

ibankbtc.

[Raystonn]

Your chart is btc-e, not bitstamp.  How does btc-e volume compare to bitstamp?

[Miz4r]

Huobi and OKcoin has higher volume than both btc-e and bitstamp, triangle clearly isn't broken there.

[Raystonn]

Hey I hope you are right.  I'd love to see Bitcoin go up.

[ibankbitcoins]

Your chart is btc-e, not bitstamp.  How does btc-e volume compare to bitstamp?

I think bitstamp and bit-e are pretty close while bitfinex is ahead. I used bit-e for my backtesting and previous analysis. Maybe i'll switch to another more volume exchange.

ibankbtc.

[DolanDuck]

Nice thread, this  consolidation period will end soon,  with the recent news of yahoo finance incorporing bitcoin, the value can only go up!

[DubFX]

Nice thread, this  consolidation period will end soon,  with the recent news of yahoo finance incorporing bitcoin, the value can only go up!

It SHOULD go up but look at the cahrts, we've been on 627$ today.

[MatTheCat]

Nice thread, this  consolidation period will end soon,  with the recent news of yahoo finance incorporing bitcoin, the value can only go up!

It SHOULD go up but look at the cahrts, we've been on 627$ today.

Yeah, I abandoned that bull flag thesis a good few days ago. Funny how the text books never point out that these bullish pennants can and do fail all the time.....After all, most tops don't just stop being tops over night, takes a while for the market to admit that there is no support at a particular high for the market to start receding. For anything other than a blow off top, you are going to get some kind of 'consolidating' flag action.

I reckon that Bitcoin goes down a bit from here b4 it can go back up, possibly even testing long term support trendline, and certainly through the OPs $620 stop loss.

[ibankbitcoins]

To clear things up, setup is only a buy on a breakout above 675 usd/btc like I originally described in the chart.