Did Karpeles cause the April and November 2013 bubbles? Most Probably.

[lumierre]

After reading this, I now think that drawing TA trend lines from at least a year back up to now doesn't make sense.
http://willyreport.wordpress.com/

However, the fact is that the price has been in an uptrend for years and will still probably go up with the influx of new market players. A long term log trend line from 2010 is likely more reliable than plotting with 2013 charts. Kinda sad but the good news is that Mt.Gox has ended.

Lastly, this flash crash in BTC-e should be a red flag for everybody, especially those who have funds in BTC-e.
https://i.imgur.com/EshPBv8.png

[Dalmar]

Obvious ponzi scheme is obvious.

[MatTheCat]

After reading this, I now think that drawing TA trend lines from at least a year back up to now doesn't make sense.
http://willyreport.wordpress.com/

However, the fact is that the price has been in an uptrend for years and will still probably go up with the influx of new market players. A long term log trend line from 2010 is likely more reliable than plotting with 2013 charts. Kinda sad but the good news is that Mt.Gox has ended.

Lastly, this flash crash in BTC-e should be a red flag for everybody, especially those who have funds in BTC-e.
https://i.imgur.com/EshPBv8.png

Wouldn't surprise me at all.

Running an unregulated unmonitored online digital financial asset exchange, would be an idiot con-man's wet dream and the potential for riches beyond wildest dreams could easily sway those who have started out with honest intentions to become idiot conmen. Karpeles himself has a history of online fraud and was probably running a corrupt show from the start. Perhaps he thought he could ramp up Bitcoin with fake trade volume, cash out real Bitcoins on other more honest exchanges, and then use 'Willy' to crash Bitcoin allowing him to buy back his customers real Bitcoins at a fraction of the price he sold them at? Perhaps he could have gotten away with it until bigger whales than him (China) came to market?

I have never trusted BTC-e nor Bitfinex (both of these exchanges had the hacker $100 flash crashes), I did trust Bitstamp, but their very peculiar KYC procedures are ringing alarm bells. However, Bitstamp apply their wacky off-putting KYC procedures also to people who are looking to deposit funds, not just withdraw. MtGox was always quite efficient at accepting fiat in, just not so good at handing it back upon request.

[dropt]

I have never trusted BTC-e nor Bitfinex

And yet, you have what can only be considered an advert for them in your sig.  Oh the irony.

[smoothie]

I refuse to give credit to the price moves of last year to MTGOX or mark.

The market is much bigger than them. And their death as a business is evidence of that.

[zimmah]

yes, i believe those bot trades were not much more than noise, and they probably barely affected the price.

it's a bit tiresome to see this FUD all over the forums.

[ArticMine]

Very interesting analysis. My take is that if it was Karpeles this was desperate short covering. The suspension of USD withdrawals came right after the first 2013 bubble while the final collapse came after the second 2013 bubble. I never accepted the US government as the real cause behind the suspension of USD withdrawals from MTGox. One must keep in mind here that if one wishes to scam a community with a large component of libertarians and crypto-anarchists the US government makes for a very good bogeyman.
 
The net result of short selling large quantities of BTC is to suppress the price for a while, and then when the short collapses into bankruptcy or just before a sharp rally. Those who were around in 2011-2012 might remember pirateat40 who came to grief in very much the same way. It was a rally in August 2012 that finally did him in, and once the market realized that the BTC were never there and consequently could not be sold the price took off.

[jamesc760]

I really doubt Karpeles could have done it. In fact, I'm sure there's no way he could have pulled it off. He's too stupid.

[damnek]

The willly story would also explain why the coinlab deal fell through. Mtgox didn't provide access to its userbase to coinlab as was agreed on. When they made that deal, Mark probably thought he would still be able to fix things and there was no willy yet. He must've been worried that coinlab would find out about his little secret.

[Peter R]

Very interesting analysis. My take is that if it was Karpeles this was desperate short covering. The suspension of USD withdrawals came right after the first 2013 bubble while the final collapse came after the second 2013 bubble. I never accepted the US government as the real cause behind the suspension of USD withdrawals from MTGox. One must keep in mind here that if one wishes to scam a community with a large component of libertarians and crypto-anarchists the US government makes for a very good bogeyman.
 
The net result of short selling large quantities of BTC is to suppress the price for a while, and then when the short collapses into bankruptcy or just before a sharp rally. Those who were around in 2011-2012 might remember pirateat40 who came to grief in very much the same way. It was a rally in August 2012 that finally did him in, and once the market realized that the BTC were never there and consequently could not be sold the price took off.

I agree that Willy was likely short covering (in order to make good on BTC withdrawal requests).  But I think the reason MtGox was short was that the 850k BTC went missing in 2011 and not in 2013.  MtGox had been operating on fractional reserves for nearly its entire life.  

Here's the complete theory which seems to explain most detail: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=497289.0

[Wandererfromthenorth]

the findings are very interesting, but i highly doubt that willy played any major role in any of the BTC bubble honestly...
Doesn't make sense from a volume standpoint.

http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/26h8tv/the_willy_btc_volume_is_only_equivalent_to_7_of/

[ShameOnYou]

I have never trusted BTC-e nor Bitfinex

And yet, you have what can only be considered an advert for them in your sig.  Oh the irony.

Read that one again, if you will: "Want to swim with sharks and wrestle with vipers? Trade Bitfinex!" Does that really sound like an advertisement to you? Doesn't to me, but to each his own...

[Wandererfromthenorth]

Hey, Bitfinex is a VERY legit operation, back when there was the reverse trade glitch they refunded users and all. The team is very professional. one of the most trustwhorty exchanges out there.

About BTC-E, well, lol, let's just say I use it only for the trollbox, but no money there...