STOP!!! Do not buy that new ASIC ! And here's why...

[libitum]

People have been saying that mining will never be profitable. Just check the first post in this thread. In the meantime, I have preordered KNC mining gear since july last year, from every batch they sell.
So far, October delivered Jupiters, have given me about 5x what I paid for them, and I can still resell it half the money I paid for it.
November delivered Jupiters (mine was delivered middle December), has only given me about 1.5x - 2x. I am also still able to sell those for the same price I paid for it.

I wrote quite a long post about this same issue (mining in 2014, the increasing difficulty, expected profits, etc.) that I dont want to repeat it here. If you want to take a look, you find it at: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=477616.0

[polarhei]

Well, one can't do a thing, double will do. Regardless the model.

In my suggestion, Obtain contract first.

[envy2010]

Unless you have free power (and nobody actually has free power), and free hardware (nobody has that either), there is a break-even point where the current value of BTC mined today matches the money expended to get that BTC.

When the majority of miners hit that point, you will see difficulty stop rising. Just look at the time between when GPU mining became mainstream, and when ASICs hit... difficulty actually dropped a bit.

Sure, tech improvements can make ASICs more efficient, but thats a 10% to 20% improvement, not the 1000% improvement that ASICs are over GPUs.

At 1w/GH/s and $0.10 per kwh and $593 per BTC, that break-even point is 124 billion difficulty. Even at 0.5 w/GH/s and $0.5/kwh and $1200 per BTC, that point is still only at 600 billion difficulty.

At 20% increase every 11 days, difficulty will hit 124 billion in 220 days, and 600 billion in 320 days. In reality, most ASICs don't get 1GH/s per watt, so some will be shut down long before 100 billion, leading to a gradual leveling off. In one year, we will probably be sitting at around 100 billion and only 28 and 20 nm ASICs will still be running.

[Searing]

Unless you have free power (and nobody actually has free power), and free hardware (nobody has that either), there is a break-even point where the current value of BTC mined today matches the money expended to get that BTC.

When the majority of miners hit that point, you will see difficulty stop rising. Just look at the time between when GPU mining became mainstream, and when ASICs hit... difficulty actually dropped a bit.

Sure, tech improvements can make ASICs more efficient, but thats a 10% to 20% improvement, not the 1000% improvement that ASICs are over GPUs.

At 1w/GH/s and $0.10 per kwh and $593 per BTC, that break-even point is 124 billion difficulty. Even at 0.5 w/GH/s and $0.5/kwh and $1200 per BTC, that point is still only at 600 billion difficulty.

At 20% increase every 11 days, difficulty will hit 124 billion in 220 days, and 600 billion in 320 days. In reality, most ASICs don't get 1GH/s per watt, so some will be shut down long before 100 billion, leading to a gradual leveling off. In one year, we will probably be sitting at around 100 billion and only 28 and 20 nm ASICs will still be running.

yeah i have 1 neptune left (1st batch order...10.2k version....i'm at the top 10 of the list too...anyway....still hainging on but essentially ..from what i can tell i may be able to "barely" get the same amount of coins as i could buy with the 10.2k now (at 3TH) ...so it is getting to the point of punting this last one too

one  i can get a refund on this "hedge" on bitcoin going nuts (gee look what happened) and get my USD back (whew!)

two i suspect with the amount of orders knc is getting refunded on neptunes as we speak they will either a) give us more TH say make it a 4TH machine to stick with them or b) don't care if we refund just more machinery for their hashing farm

three i like to mine .....but it is getting to the point of "this is dumb to keep stage"

anyway seems the worst fear i had has come to pass ..in that difficulty is going up faster then equip can get out to folks ....at an even more accelerated pace and the second is the miners (the cheerleaders of bitcoin) are gettnig pushed out by the price...lack of equip to roi and the large farms coming into play..ie we look pretty well boxed in here on what options we have for best use of coin and mining don't look like the way here at least this 1st 1/2 of the year imho

anyway they have till maybe march 15th the very latest april 1st or i punt and get my refund back....we will see...but knc does refunds...the other guys don't....so this may be the last hurrah for independent miners this year unless some other dark horse comes out of the woodwork and offers more bang for the buck and delivers like knc did last summer...i think they are just gonna build equip for their own use from now on and be the  'worlds largest virtual miner place" as they state

anyway we will see how it goes ..but looks likely this last neptune asic will also get punted unless knc has somehting up their sleeve

or is there some other mnfg coming on the market i should be aware of ?

anyway my clouded view so far on this

Searing

[lowbander80]

I think as miners when spending money and electricity want except from the fun of it
to make some money too, so these can be reinvested in faster hashing equipment...
If this aint going to happen no more investment in these BFL KNC etc machines..
See the advert from BFL when their card look like miners will launced what is their lifetime...
I guess the BTC will increase
For this reason on my ebay user ID i advertise since today BITCOINS ACCEPTED

[bitlite]

Well, maybe you should also take into consideration that, after you returned your investment, you have a machine worth a few thousand dollar which you can sell afterwards...

Well said, the old ASIC miners are great to use as boat anchors. I know. One's a boat anchor while the other one is used as a door stop in my garage.

[jimmothy]

Unless you have free power (and nobody actually has free power), and free hardware (nobody has that either), there is a break-even point where the current value of BTC mined today matches the money expended to get that BTC.

When the majority of miners hit that point, you will see difficulty stop rising. Just look at the time between when GPU mining became mainstream, and when ASICs hit... difficulty actually dropped a bit.

Sure, tech improvements can make ASICs more efficient, but thats a 10% to 20% improvement, not the 1000% improvement that ASICs are over GPUs.

At 1w/GH/s and $0.10 per kwh and $593 per BTC, that break-even point is 124 billion difficulty. Even at 0.5 w/GH/s and $0.5/kwh and $1200 per BTC, that point is still only at 600 billion difficulty.

At 20% increase every 11 days, difficulty will hit 124 billion in 220 days, and 600 billion in 320 days. In reality, most ASICs don't get 1GH/s per watt, so some will be shut down long before 100 billion, leading to a gradual leveling off. In one year, we will probably be sitting at around 100 billion and only 28 and 20 nm ASICs will still be running.

I agree with your idea but not your estimations.

Asicminer 40nm chips will be able to achieve 0.2w/gh so maybe 0.4w/gh at the wall. And if AM can achieve that efficiency with 40nm, I think there is much room for improvement with 28/20nm chips.

I would guess that we eventually see 20/14nm miners with 0.1w/gh

Also there will be large scale mining operations taking advantage of cheap electricity and energy arbitrage and get electricity for something like $0.05/kwh.

[bitlite]

People who say don't mine should have to do full disclosure as to what their current hashrate is. Lots of miners may see discouraging others as a way to try and sustain the value of their mining endeavor.

The whole bitcoin Jargon is powered by the greedy and the morons who think they'll get rich mining bitcoins.
Fact 1: Difficulty level in 2014 means it's not profitable anymore.
Fact 2: Miners are in it to make money. When Miners shut their rigs off and count their losses, It's the end of Bitcoin.
Fact 3: Its all dying right now, just visit Ebay and search for Bitcoin miner. You will PU 1.4TH's Miners for around $1800, Hmmm! I wonder why?  Bitcoin is a dead man walking peeps lmfao

[hurricandave]

People who say don't mine should have to do full disclosure as to what their current hashrate is. Lots of miners may see discouraging others as a way to try and sustain the value of their mining endeavor.

The whole bitcoin Jargon is powered by the greedy and the morons who think they'll get rich mining bitcoins.
Fact 1: Difficulty level in 2014 means it's not profitable anymore.
Fact 2: Miners are in it to make money. When Miners shut their rigs off and count their losses, It's the end of Bitcoin.
Fact 3: Its all dying right now, just visit Ebay and search for Bitcoin miner. You will PU 1.4TH's Miners for around $1800, Hmmm! I wonder why?  Bitcoin is a dead man walking peeps lmfao

You are bashing on a thread that's gone 90 days without activity. Take your negativity and focus on yourself!

[timk225]

Well, he's right.  I have been telling people not to buy ASICs for a full year now, yet dumbasses keep doing it, and look at what it has done to Bitcoin mining.  I was right all along, and most people refuse to admit it.

Remember how much the USB block erupters used to cost and how cheap they are now, along with most of the early ASICs?  That money is PISSED AWAY because within 6-9 months of purchase, even the best ASIC is obsolete and useless for anything else!

[xstr8guy]

Well, he's right.  I have been telling people not to buy ASICs for a full year now, yet dumbasses keep doing it, and look at what it has done to Bitcoin mining.  I was right all along, and most people refuse to admit it.

Remember how much the USB block erupters used to cost and how cheap they are now, along with most of the early ASICs?  That money is PISSED AWAY because within 6-9 months of purchase, even the best ASIC is obsolete and useless for anything else!

Hey Nostradamus, still bitter that you missed profitable mining during the past year? There are hundreds of people here that can prove that your prediction was wrong.

[Justin00]

you should of given this advice months ago.
can't believe people still buy ASIC's.. well I am sure some are still profitable.. but with the delays and everything..its a gamble.. not in our favour..
I hope all that do have asics end up ROI and profit.. I was never into hardware... kinda wish I hadbeen.. but oh well :/