To whom it may concern...

[Hunterbunter]

Who listened?

I did!

but then I messed up my exit and bitcoinica spreads owned me.

[notme]

Who listened?

I did!

but then I messed up my exit and bitcoinica spreads owned me.

Just a touch too greedy, eh?

[Hunterbunter]

Who listened?

I did!

but then I messed up my exit and bitcoinica spreads owned me.

Just a touch too greedy, eh?

Not sure I follow...meant to put limit orders but put market orders due to retarded clicking.

[proudhon]

Who listened?

I did!

but then I messed up my exit and bitcoinica spreads owned me.

Just a touch too greedy, eh?

Not sure I follow...meant to put limit orders but put market orders due to retarded clicking.

Ouch.  Sorry dude.

[notme]

Who listened?

I did!

but then I messed up my exit and bitcoinica spreads owned me.

Just a touch too greedy, eh?

Not sure I follow...meant to put limit orders but put market orders due to retarded clicking.

Lame... been there, done that.  Sorry.  I had assumed you meant you had not set your exit at a high enough price.

[RandyMarsh]

Are still going down? 4.2? 3.8? I closed half of my short at 4.5, i hope we're still going down

[Hunterbunter]

Are still going down? 4.2? 3.8? I closed half of my short at 4.5, i hope we're still going down

If we break 4.5 then my personal guestimate is yes. I think this is 70% likely. How far? there's support at 4.2...but more at 3.8.

If we don't...might turn around and head back up and attempt to break through $5 again. I think this is 30% likely.

I must say $4.50 is an odd place for the market to stop at, but it is what it is.

[proudhon]

Ok, here's my uber-bearish prediction.  Bitcoin doesn't make it above $7.20 for the rest of 2012.  The market needs new money, and recent events will likely scare new money away.  The money currently in the system will not be enough to overcome the production rate.  Additionally, FPGAs are becoming more popular and affordable, thus reducing operating costs and making it possible to remain profitable at lower exchange rates. 

So, I'm completely out of BTC again.  I got out at $4.90 as soon as I read Zs preliminary hack report.  I've placed my bets.  I'm obviously expecting the price to continue to fall.  If I'm wrong hopefully I'll be able to jump back in without losing any of the bitcoins I've traded up to over the past months, but I'm willing to take the chance that I'll end up with less than I had yesterday. 

[N12]

Once again on exactly the same page as proudhon. Last time (called the 3.8 bottom @4.2-4.4) went well, so let’s see if we are right now too.

We should probably issue analysis and charge money for it.

[proudhon]

Once again on exactly the same page as proudhon. Last time (called the 3.8 bottom @4.2-4.4) went well, so let’s see if we are right now too.

We should probably issue analysis and charge money for it.

Haha, after I read about the hack I couldn't get rid of my coins fast enough.



Of course it was just a coincidence that the hack happened while I was trolling for a drop.  And in the interest of full disclosure, I was actually long on bitcoinica and just wanted to improve my base price.  Things were looking fairly bullish to me.  I closed the bitcoinica position about 30 minutes before I sold everything on MtGox.

[Technomage]

I won't sell because my long term outlook has improved thanks to the hacks, so it would be counter-intuitive. On top of that I don't want to add to the panic. I will ride the short term crash as low as it goes. So I'm still very much long and traditionally so, I've not touched Bitcoinica nor am I planning to do so in the future.

[N12]

Everything the same here, except I was still just long from the lower 4s.

I’m going to wait for a sustainable bottom now. We don’t even have a clue about the real extent of the things that are happening, and I keep seeing more and more bad news.

For instance, bitcoinwatch.com is for sale recently. Why? Does the owner need cash RIGHT NOW? Has he had lots of BTC stolen too? I don’t know. But it sure is a weird coincidence.

Technomage, the funny thing is that you actually lose out on getting more Bitcoins with your long-term bagholding.

[Technomage]

Technomage, the funny thing is that you actually lose out on getting more Bitcoins with your long-term bagholding.

I know this but it's not like it's free money. I've done some short term trading and it's not something I enjoy. It requires being aware of everything that happens, all the time. It's stressful and I don't like it. If I see an obvious opportunity I might do something, for example this time I went to sleep after Slush announced his loss, but before Zhou had announced anything. I heard about the Bitcoinica hack after I woke up and the price had already dropped a good amount. Now I'm simply not sure how low it will go from here so I decided it's not worth it.