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Author Topic: If Bitcoin Transactions Speeds Are Increased After bitcoin Halving?????  (Read 202 times)
Bilugi (OP)
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May 24, 2020, 06:32:16 AM
 #1

Hello Readers as you can see that I was wondering that as we all know that Bitcoin block rate has been halved and bitcoins are being mined at a very half rate.
So if due to this, the Bitcoin transactions are too fast or not. And I will be pleased if the transactions time have been got much more faster than we can still think about this.
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May 24, 2020, 06:42:07 AM
 #2

Only the block reward was halved (from 12.5 to 6.25 BTC), not "block rate" or anything.

Transaction confirmation for low-fee txns had been slow this past week because most people have expected a huge market movement
because of the halving that generated a lot of transaction volume.

The average block time is still 10 minutes.

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May 24, 2020, 09:40:32 AM
 #3

The average block time is still 10 minutes.
Overall sure, but not at the moment.

If you look at the 7 day moving average of the block times over the last 7 days since the halving (here: https://bitinfocharts.com/comparison/confirmationtime-btc-sma7.html#3m), we've increased from about 9.5 minutes to about 12.3 minutes. Since the difficulty readjustment a few days ago, we seem to have stopped increasing and leveled out at about 12.3 minutes per block, but we are way behind the average of 10 minutes.

I don't think we can put down slow transaction speeds solely to people expecting a large price movement. Looking at https://diff.cryptothis.com/, we are over 100 blocks behind where we "should" be right now, which would be more than enough to clear out the remaining 70 MB of low fee transactions and completely empty the mempool. This difficulty period could be over 17 days in length, and it won't be until the next retarget that the average block time comes back down towards 10 minutes.
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May 24, 2020, 09:43:52 AM
 #4

I don't think we can put down slow transaction speeds solely to people expecting a large price movement.

Actually the slow transaction speed may be caused by the opposite: some miners don't expect big price movements and they've stopped mining for now (probably it would be at a loss at current price).
Big difficulty + smaller number of miners = slower blocks until the next difficulty adjustment.


PS. By what I've just read, Sichuan drought may be another strong reason though.

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May 24, 2020, 10:49:18 PM
 #5

Transaction confirmation for low-fee txns had been slow this past week because most people have expected a huge market movement
It's not because of the people who expecting huge market movement actually, the reason why the transaction is slowing down it's because many miners stop mining immediately after block halving.

The profit they earn before block halving is profitable but after the block halving they stop because they can't afford to pay the operational cost(Like Electricity).

This will lead to network hash rate drop and all transactions will be affected and slow down due to fewer miners are mining blocks.

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May 24, 2020, 11:29:40 PM
 #6

This will lead to network hash rate drop and all transactions will be affected and slow down due to fewer miners are mining blocks.
Still trying to understand how this whole thing works. Sorry for being too inquisitive. This can be fixed by adjusting the difficulty, right?

Because, It was inevitable that some small scale miners would have to drop out of the game after the halving. What has helped in the past after halving, is that the bitcoin price would spike after a few months there by making mining still profitable.

So, what happens if the bitcoin price still stays in the same range for the next 3-4 years?
What will incentivize most small scale miners to continue doing their job?

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nc50lc
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May 25, 2020, 03:52:54 AM
 #7

This will lead to network hash rate drop and all transactions will be affected and slow down due to fewer miners are mining blocks.
Still trying to understand how this whole thing works. Sorry for being too inquisitive. This can be fixed by adjusting the difficulty, right?
The difficulty will only change after 2016 blocks or approximate of 14days if each was mined at 10minutes range.
So during that time if the hashrate suddenly dropped, it will take more time to mine each block before the next difficulty adjustment occurs.

The average block time is still 10 minutes.
Overall sure, but not at the moment.
I mean, nothing's changed with the "block rate" unlike OP suspected: halved.

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May 25, 2020, 05:22:16 AM
 #8

So, what happens if the bitcoin price still stays in the same range for the next 3-4 years?
What will incentivize most small scale miners to continue doing their job?

If profitability doesn't increase then they'll mine other coins, join another pool with better pay rate, find cheaper electricity or anything else. That's just how the market works.

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May 25, 2020, 05:57:20 AM
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 #9

What has helped in the past after halving, is that the bitcoin price would spike after a few months there by making mining still profitable.
As long as bitcoin still has a value, then mining will always be profitable. The question is "At what difficulty will mining be profitable?". If the price was to suddenly crash to $1000, then yes, many miners would shut off, and block time would increase until the next adjustment. After the difficulty adjusts downwards, however, then it becomes easier to find a block, therefore less expensive to find a block, and some miners would then turn back on as it is again profitable for them.

From the genesis block up until September 2017 when bitcoin crossed $4,500 for the first time, mining was less profitable that it is today, even after the most recent halving ($4,500 * 12.5 BTC = $56,250 compared to $9,000 * 6.25 BTC = $56,250). A year ago, when the price was sitting around $3,500, the block reward in terms of USD was $12,500 less than it is today. And bitcoin was fine throughout.

So, what happens if the bitcoin price still stays in the same range for the next 3-4 years?
Even if the price doesn't spike in the coming months or years, mining will continue to be profitable, just at a different difficulty than it is now. Some miners will switch off, and others will switch on. It is a self correcting system.
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May 25, 2020, 06:51:46 AM
 #10

When does the Halving take place. I only found this on a dutch website:

http://www.wisselkoersberekenen.nl/cryptocurrency/bitcoin-having/

Im worries my crypto will be worthless again?
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May 25, 2020, 06:54:26 AM
 #11

When does the Halving take place.
The last one took place two weeks ago. The next one will take place in around 4 years.
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May 25, 2020, 07:05:41 AM
 #12

Pay more then you will have a faster transaction.
Pay less then your tx could be stuck there for days or even weeks.

There might be calculations that are happening from miners.
If they feel there is not enough profit going in then a white flag is necessary.
But we should wait, if difficulty will be lesser then another miner can come in.
For now, endure the high fees.
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