Why do people keep saying bitcoin will be a binary outcome?

[bitcoinsrus]

I keep hearing (on here) that bitcoin will either either succeed or fail.

Why can't it just hover around eternity?  So what most are saying is that, it can only either get mass adoption (100k-1mn) or go to 0?

I don't think it will go to 0.  You have to realize that a lot of people already have a ton invested in bitcoin.  They have miners, btc itself etc.

I believe that even if a better bitcoin comes out in the future, there will still always be that group of people trying to get that last btc 100+ years from now (2140 or w.e).  

As for 10k-1mn I don't know, maybe.  

Bitcoin can either continue up or can lose value (but it might still be a novelty and have decent value)

What are your thoughts on this subject?

[Ibian]

It's too radical a technology to just plod along forever. Either people will use it for the benefits it gives, which is beyond any other comparable current alternative, or it will be killed with a concerted worldwide top level effort. Last part is unlikely since politicians, as part of their nature, tend to take opposing views on economic matters.

[chessnut]

Bitcoin is a speculative investment at present. it is attractive because if a large infrastructure was built around bitcoin, a LOT more capital would flow into it. The market would become very liquid, and the network effect would eventually push the value to astronomical levels. This is genuinely probable considering what the technology is capable of.

If this infrastrucure fails to develop, speculators will sell (we are talking billions). This crash would damage any infrastructure too severely for bitcoin to survive at any significant value. not to mention, the mining network would shut down, leaving the system vulnerale to attack.

[Bit_Happy]

Some people forget how quiet things were for BTC in 2012.
With VC money pouring in we will not be that "dead", but it is possible for the market to stagnate near "the bottom" for what will seem like a very long time.