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[20140907]只讲应用,比特币的价格下限在哪里?
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Topic: [20140907]只讲应用,比特币的价格下限在哪里? (Read 1130 times)
multiinone
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[20140907]只讲应用,比特币的价格下限在哪里?
September 07, 2014, 01:35:09 AM
#1
随着比特币价格不断下降,虽然当前仍未触及最低点,但有些人可能会想:比特币最低价格会到哪个点?是否到了某个点它就会自动止跌?碰巧的是,这是通货膨胀市场中货币价值的一个有趣案例。
通常地,当某种货币出现这种情况时,其原因就是突然爆发的流动性:央行印刷了大量的纸币,并将其注入到需要高度资金运转的经济之中。这就将出现一个失控的局面,人们看到自己的货币在贬值,未来他们有可能将其出售,从而导致价值进一步下降,等等。
对于比特币,目前还没有突然爆发的流动性,投机泡沫已经破灭,而且其价格更接近实际的市场均衡,这就出现了一个有趣的问题:这种均衡体现在哪里?
首先,让我们做一些假设。我们想象未来没有人对囤积比特币感兴趣:没有人相信比特币价格会稳定不变,但认为未来价格会下降,所以他们只会买仅够的比特币,以便在不久的将来再购买一些。比特币价格完全由简单的供求关系决定:人们某一天花费多少比特币购买商品和服务,以及有多少比特币存在。我们也将试图建立一个下限,这其中有一些猜测的成分,所以我们将挑选更悲观的数据支撑。这个结果是某个数据可能会小几倍,但会给我们数量级的答案。假设像对比特币失去信心一样,我们也对其他替换货币失去信心:我们只关心通过有形的商品和服务对比特币的需求来维持比特币的价格,这意味着我们无法使用比特币交易所的统计数据来支持我们的数据。
那么我们开始吧。消费于商品和服务的比特币总量的代表主要是两个最大的比特币付款处理器,Coinbase和BitPay处理比特币的总数据。当然还有其他电子商务(不包括企业发的比特币工资),但Coinbase和BitPay加起来可能就超过总额的一半以上:几乎所有的大型比特币商家都是通过Coinbase或BitPay接受的比特币。
不幸的是,这些企业都不愿意透露准确的业务数据。好消息是,在字里行间,我们可以猜测出来。例如,我们知道BitPay截止到2013年底的收入达到了1亿美元,我们也知道他们2012年做了价值300万美元的交易。由于该公司成立于2011年,我们猜测2013年BitPay至少做了9400万美元交易似乎是合理。Coinbase也没有发布相关交易数据,但两家公司都公布他们合作的商家数量:BitPay超过30000名,而Coinbase超过31000名。如果我们假设每个商家处理的平均付款总额是相似的,那这两家公司的收入相当。我们继续往下看,并称它们为年收入1亿美元的企业,或两者每年总数3亿美元,这不包括不需要通过这两家公司处理的所有商品和服务交易的50%保证金。在现实中,这些数字可能稍高,因为2014年增长肯定会持续增长,但很难有量级上的增长,所以我们只管假设2014年将有3亿美元收入。
3亿美元将只占60亿比特币市值(以每个473美元计算)的5%左右。换句话说,如果95%比特币的总需求是投机性的,由于我们对比特币价格的保守假设,在自然市场力量阻止价格进一步下跌之前,我们可以设置一个23美元的较低价格界线。
让我们理智地检验这个数据。在我们估算2013年期间BitPay和Coinbase的大概流量数据的同时,我们CoinDesk的同事算出了前三名的比特币交易所的比特币流量。比特币交易流量将是很大程度上投机买卖(包括替换货币交易),而很少会有商品和服务的电子商务。
比特币将跌至23美元吗?很可能不会。如果是这样,那么我们假设BitPay和Coinbase在2014年没有增长是完全错误。Overstock、Dell和 Newegg都在2014年接受比特币,而比特币实际价值可能高出几倍。此外,人们也不可能彻底失去囤积比特币和各种替换货币的兴趣。这可能是一个相当低的下限,但它确实让我们知道:市场均衡体现在哪里以及当前的比特币价格无法持续。
----
原文:
https://coinreport.net/bitcoin-low-can-go/
作者:Andre Infante
译者:高大尚
稿源(译):巴比特资讯(
www.8btc.com
)
译者btc地址:1FvTb47rTFTSxNmj8iAAUw85oPhV5JbvbX
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wuqing78
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Re: [20140907]只讲应用,比特币的价格下限在哪里?
September 07, 2014, 02:38:30 AM
#2
我感觉的下线在2500RMB,现在这个低迷的状况可能要持续挺长一段时间啊
kaiy
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Re: [20140907]只讲应用,比特币的价格下限在哪里?
September 07, 2014, 06:45:31 AM
#3
Quote from: wuqing78 on September 07, 2014, 02:38:30 AM
我感觉的下线在2500RMB,现在这个低迷的状况可能要持续挺长一段时间啊
如果比特币跌到2500你就会认为比特币的下限为2000. 就像3500的时候你认为他会到3000一样.
fwzd
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Re: [20140907]只讲应用,比特币的价格下限在哪里?
September 07, 2014, 12:15:54 PM
#4
我感觉的下线在2800RMB,也就是现在已经是在最低点了,所以要上车的可要赶快了!
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[20140907]只讲应用,比特币的价格下限在哪里?
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