The Levy Report - Another Global Reccession 2015, the year for BTC

[Addition]

All I know is that their quantitative analysis has been impressive this century - How will this impact BTC?


http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/analysis-and-features/doom-and-gloom-2015-global-recession-warning-from-financial-seers-of-the-century-9624700.html


http://levyforecast.com/sample-publications/

Respected by macro-economists, true. But should we listen?

[pitham1]

All I know is that their quantitative analysis has been impressive this century - How will this impact BTC?


http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/analysis-and-features/doom-and-gloom-2015-global-recession-warning-from-financial-seers-of-the-century-9624700.html


http://levyforecast.com/sample-publications/

Respected by macro-economists, true. But should we listen?

I doubt if the 2008 recession was predicted by anybody.
It is very difficult to predict when asset bubbles will pop, but when they do, I expect it to be very good for bitcoin.

[Lethn]

As a matter of fact, several people did.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z0YTY5TWtmU

[tvbcof]

I doubt if the 2008 recession was predicted by anybody.
It is very difficult to predict when asset bubbles will pop, but when they do, I expect it to be very good for bitcoin.

It was zero surprise to me.  My friends and I at work used to talk economics and finance all the time before the event.  When it happened I just laughed.  I had not predicted to the minute that 'it' would happen, but I did loudly expound on the possibility of such problems and what would be the operative reasons.  Not that I thought them up on my own...I just mostly regurgitated theories of others, but there were plenty of people describing these things in alternative financial circles.

I was surprised that 'they' were able to recover things by simple standard borrowing methods which work in a debt-based system and mark-to-model accounting chicanery.  Or I should say, that these methods have sustained things this long.  I think that the event was actually premature and provoked a bit to hit the last presidents lame duck period.  No telling what this president has in store.  Probably something much more vicious and nasty of which economic rape will be simply a sidebar.  Should be good for Bitcoin regardless.

[Q7]

Even if it crashes, not sure if people would actually fled towards bitcoin, but would rather go for gold just like in the past.

[tvbcof]

Even if it crashes, not sure if people would actually fled towards bitcoin, but would rather go for gold just like in the past.

Damn hard to get the phyz if TSHTF.  Or at least that with the right count of protons and shit in it's nucleus.  This is especially true of one is racing the herd and/on the lamb.

Bitcoin and physical gold are actually close cousins in that they have no counter-party risk but Bitcoin has some serious advantages in terms of mobility.  Associated with the counter-party risk idea, both Bitcoin and gold have the potential for a fair measure of opacity and plausible deniability which can be employed when one party is seeking to understand aspects of another party's stash.  People who see their paper-gold, stocks-n-bonds, IRAs, 404-Ks, and very possibly their demand account contents flutter away under the guise of 'social justice' will likely feel the pain of this want greatly.

Bitcoin will do well if infrastructure holds up...which in some respects like freedom of association/communication is a big if.  Even given problems here, a fairly technical person will probably be able to use the solution to a reasonable degree.  And the world has a fair number of technical people and would have even more if the struggle to preserve assets comes into play.  Plus they can hire out.  In a true crisis, Bitcoin, after getting the wind knocked out of it would catch it's breath, rally, and finish way ahead of the pack.  That would be my guess anyway.