2014: The Worst Year for BTC?

[LiberyOrDeath]

In fact, you're taking two arbitrary points in time and comparing the exchange rate of BTC vs the USD.
Just because theses points in time happen to be January 1st and December 31st doesn't add any fundamentally important information.

Well then, what points in time would you suggest we use instead of years and months?

Let's say you do use months. Here's something I posted elsewhere on the forum, slightly revised:

A comparison to 2011

It took us 20 months following the 2011 $32 high for that price to be surpassed. Giving the investors back then the benefit of the doubt, let's assume that most of them didn't go all in at $32. Say they averaged at around $16. Even if that was the case, it actually still took 18 months just for them to get back above THAT level after it dropped below it.  So, then, let's use an even more optimistic estimate for them. Say they dollar cost averaged down in equal amounts from $32 to $2 (June 2011 to November 2011). Their break even exchange rate might have been about $10.  Even then, they'd still have had to wait around 13 months after the $32 peak just to break even.

Putting that into today's context, with our ATH on Bitstamp of 1163, the relative to 2011, the bottom this time around would've been around $73, and we've only actually gotten down to the $340 range! This brings me to another key difference regarding this time around.

The fact that we haven't even gotten close to such a relative low of $73, that's actually a double edged sword. Even while people haven't lost as much money on the way down up to this point as they would have if it had dropped to $73, they also haven't had the opportunity to buy in as low, to accelerate their process of breaking even -- assuming that it still, in the long term, goes back up.

This time around, say you dollar cost averaged in, by buying in with the same amount of dollars, at equal intervals, all the way down from $1163 to $338.  Your break even point might now be around $655. In a relative sense, that break even point is much closer to it's related high of $1163 than, say, the aforementioned $10 was to $32 back in 2011. Back then, it would've been like having your break even exchange rate at around $18, not $10. Keep in mind that that even a price of $18 wasn't crossed again for 19 months out from the high of $32.

So, we're currently only 10 months out from the current ATH. Say the same sort of situation comes to pass as 2011. Could you really hold out eight more months just to break even?

I appreciate your input. The numbers you have emphasized are exact figures and it cannot be disputed. You are correct.

That said - this is not 2011 anymore - we are a couple of months away from 2015. Back in 2011 BTC was an obscure curiosity known among a small community of hardcore programmers and coders, and now BTC is an international phenomenon with it being in the mainstream news everyday - this is a key difference between 2011 and 2014/15. However I cannot dispute your numbers - they are exact and strictly speaking you are absolutely correct. But what I am saying is that the setting is radically different now than it was in 2011. And this should affect the way you make you calculations and observations.

[mmortal03]

Even though we still have a few months to go until the end of 2014, chances are that this year might turn out to be the worst for BTC. By this I mean the first year so far that BTC will end up in negative territory, 2011, 2012, 2013 all ended with huge upward movements, yet this year we have fallen from January high of $900-$1000 to what we have know $475.

What does this signal in your opinion? This year has seen many breakthroughs and positive news, yet we are down more than 50% this year - unprecedented event in the history of BTC, since all the previous years ended with high gains. Does this mean that 2015 will be a huge year or is it just a small detour along the way?

What do you cryptoheads think about this phenomenon ?

Cheers,
Jay

September 4, 2013
1 BTC = $123

September 4, 2014
1 BTC = $475

That's an increase of $352 (286%) over 1 year.

It'll be interesting to see what happens in the remaining 4 months.

October 3, 2013
1 BTC = $103

October 3, 2014
1 BTC = $375

Like I said in the "Crunch time!" thread, a diff chart subtracting the current daily price from a year ago would be interesting. If we don't take off pretty soon, this diff will begin to approach zero pretty rapidly here. We're about a month and a half away from going negative after 365 days.

[mmortal03]

In fact, you're taking two arbitrary points in time and comparing the exchange rate of BTC vs the USD.
Just because theses points in time happen to be January 1st and December 31st doesn't add any fundamentally important information.

Well then, what points in time would you suggest we use instead of years and months?

Let's say you do use months. Here's something I posted elsewhere on the forum, slightly revised:

A comparison to 2011

*snip*

I appreciate your input. The numbers you have emphasized are exact figures and it cannot be disputed. You are correct.

That said - this is not 2011 anymore - we are a couple of months away from 2015. Back in 2011 BTC was an obscure curiosity known among a small community of hardcore programmers and coders, and now BTC is an international phenomenon with it being in the mainstream news everyday - this is a key difference between 2011 and 2014/15. However I cannot dispute your numbers - they are exact and strictly speaking you are absolutely correct. But what I am saying is that the setting is radically different now than it was in 2011. And this should affect the way you make you calculations and observations.

For sure. We haven't reached $73 yet on this downtrend, have we? Seriously, though, I really don't expect to see a mirror image of 2011. The low this time should not be so extreme. One can use such an extreme prior example as a measuring stick, not necessarily a predictor.

[Clegg]

I wonder how many nervous hands will have cashed out their btc and given up on it because of these low prices. Will they be kicking themselves later on when the price recovers or goes to a new all time high? I don't even think bitcoin has reached even 10% of it's potential yet, so seems silly to dump now.

[LiberyOrDeath]

I wonder how many nervous hands will have cashed out their btc and given up on it because of these low prices. Will they be kicking themselves later on when the price recovers or goes to a new all time high? I don't even think bitcoin has reached even 10% of it's potential yet, so seems silly to dump now.

Imagine how many people bought in at the peak of 1000-1200 USD - those people are 75% down, and they are in the gutter, because I don't see no reason why this cannot go down to 100 USD or less since we are testing the April 2013 high of 270 USD now.

Be careful people, this ain't a game.

[BlindMayorBitcorn]

I wonder how many nervous hands will have cashed out their btc and given up on it because of these low prices. Will they be kicking themselves later on when the price recovers or goes to a new all time high? I don't even think bitcoin has reached even 10% of it's potential yet, so seems silly to dump now.

Imagine how many people bought in at the peak of 1000-1200 USD - those people are 75% down, and they are in the gutter, because I don't see no reason why this cannot go down to 100 USD or less since we are testing the April 2013 high of 270 USD now.

Be careful people, this ain't a game.

^^Very true

[OrientA]

I wonder how many nervous hands will have cashed out their btc and given up on it because of these low prices. Will they be kicking themselves later on when the price recovers or goes to a new all time high? I don't even think bitcoin has reached even 10% of it's potential yet, so seems silly to dump now.

Imagine how many people bought in at the peak of 1000-1200 USD - those people are 75% down, and they are in the gutter, because I don't see no reason why this cannot go down to 100 USD or less since we are testing the April 2013 high of 270 USD now.

Be careful people, this ain't a game.

If BTC is just an investment, and has no value, ie not being used in daily life, then the price can be anything, even 0. But there are more adoption now.

[Jerome?]

I think 2014 is the best year yet.. 

[sgbett]

I wonder how many nervous hands will have cashed out their btc and given up on it because of these low prices. Will they be kicking themselves later on when the price recovers or goes to a new all time high? I don't even think bitcoin has reached even 10% of it's potential yet, so seems silly to dump now.

Imagine how many people bought in at the peak of 1000-1200 USD - those people are 75% down, and they are in the gutter, because I don't see no reason why this cannot go down to 100 USD or less since we are testing the April 2013 high of 270 USD now.

Be careful people, this ain't a game.

^^Very true

Yes surely these people have watched their bitcoin devalue by 75% and have been waiting until now to sell.

or

Those people have been selling all the way down, and will/have run out of coins.

You are right you "don't see no reason" because you are blind to other people's opinions and concluded that everyone else in the world is a frightened rabbit.

[FUR11]

Right now things are looking terrible, yes, of course! But I'm quite certain that this crash, or maybe another (potentially even bigger one) will finally clear things up again. The volume is high, and the price really is low. Things are being decided as we speak!

[BlindMayorBitcorn]

I wonder how many nervous hands will have cashed out their btc and given up on it because of these low prices. Will they be kicking themselves later on when the price recovers or goes to a new all time high? I don't even think bitcoin has reached even 10% of it's potential yet, so seems silly to dump now.

Imagine how many people bought in at the peak of 1000-1200 USD - those people are 75% down, and they are in the gutter, because I don't see no reason why this cannot go down to 100 USD or less since we are testing the April 2013 high of 270 USD now.

Be careful people, this ain't a game.

^^Very true

Yes surely these people have watched their bitcoin devalue by 75% and have been waiting until now to sell.

or

Those people have been selling all the way down, and will/have run out of coins.

You are right you "don't see no reason" because you are blind to other people's opinions and concluded that everyone else in the world is a frightened rabbit.

Sooo aggressive. Rawr rich fella, calm down

[catena5260]

Still almost 90 days for the end of year.


As someone said: This is not end, until it ends

[LiberyOrDeath]

Still almost 90 days for the end of year.


As someone said: This is not end, until it ends

I bet you are still in denial like so many others - hoping for the repeat of the 2013 autumn. It won't happen buddy. We have tested the 270 USD support, and there are strong chances this will go below 100 USD within a few months. Just being realistic here - I hold BTC - and I will not sell, but gotta face reality people.

[sidhujag]

Still almost 90 days for the end of year.


As someone said: This is not end, until it ends

I bet you are still in denial like so many others - hoping for the repeat of the 2013 autumn. It won't happen buddy. We have tested the 270 USD support, and there are strong chances this will go below 100 USD within a few months. Just being realistic here - I hold BTC - and I will not sell, but gotta face reality people.

$100 would be great...  it would be the BEST year for BTC then (atleast for me )

[King Agamemnon]

I think 2014 is the best year yet.. 

Why because of the paypal and ebay thing?

[LiberyOrDeath]

I wonder how many nervous hands will have cashed out their btc and given up on it because of these low prices. Will they be kicking themselves later on when the price recovers or goes to a new all time high? I don't even think bitcoin has reached even 10% of it's potential yet, so seems silly to dump now.

Imagine how many people bought in at the peak of 1000-1200 USD - those people are 75% down, and they are in the gutter, because I don't see no reason why this cannot go down to 100 USD or less since we are testing the April 2013 high of 270 USD now.

Be careful people, this ain't a game.

^^Very true

Yes surely these people have watched their bitcoin devalue by 75% and have been waiting until now to sell.

or

Those people have been selling all the way down, and will/have run out of coins.

You are right you "don't see no reason" because you are blind to other people's opinions and concluded that everyone else in the world is a frightened rabbit.

It seems to me that you are the one who is ignorant of other people's opinions. You can give me all the techno-coding mumbo-jumbo to support your claim that BTC and crypto is the best thing since sliced bread, but this thing (especially alts) is turning into multiple pyramid schemes. That's all we have right now - I was in it for the philosophy behind it - and many other people are too, but what has become of this crypto world is a mockery of itself.

Trading money that is not really money, and bashing fiat along the way - with the only goal being to cash out the scamcoins and increase the amount of holding in fiat i.e. cash.

BTC has become a place for gamblers to go - there is nothing about technology or philosophy out there anymore, it's gamblers and pump and dump groups. Very sad indeed.