What will be the main factors in 2016?

[bitowl]

What are the most important factors that will affect bitcoin's exchange rate over the next year?

1. Not the actual reward halving, but the communities response afterward. If everyone start slowly buying beforehand expecting the price to jump suddenly, they are in effect pricing this in already. When btc fails to take off, everyone pitches their coins fearing the worst. Alternatively, the price actually does increase substantially as proposed by so many here.

2. Rifts in the development community. BitcoinXT vs Blockstream. This is probably the most important long term factor but there is still wiggle room if things aren't worked out next year and people can remain optimistic.

3. Government intervention. At any time they can pass a bill in the name of security, shutting down the exchanges and nuking the price. A long shot but enough of a reality to keep the common person from being sold on bitcoin's legitimacy, suppressing the demand significantly.

Anything I miss?

[lister storm]

block halving and merchant adoption will positive factors while we may get some negative news from government regulation

[Nunu]

Interesting question or say topic regarding the main factors in 2016. 

It's good to be able to take a look at a near future such as 2016 rather than take a look at a very distant future when we have a slightest idea if we'd be able to reach it.

[HabBear]

What are the most important factors that will affect bitcoin's exchange rate over the next year?

1. Not the actual reward halving, but the communities response afterward. If everyone start slowly buying beforehand expecting the price to jump suddenly, they are in effect pricing this in already. When btc fails to take off, everyone pitches their coins fearing the worst. Alternatively, the price actually does increase substantially as proposed by so many here.

Isn't the reward halving the factor that could change behavior? I agree with your comment that people may be buying into it and thus pricing is being effected now, so we may not see a boost in the days after the halving happens, but it's not like monetary policy where it can be reversed or further manipulated to change the price or counteract behavior. 6 months after the halving, if demand remains at the same growth rate we'll see a higher price rise because the growth of demand will have been halved.

I think this is the biggest factor for 2016, but not the most important. The most important is continuing adoption of this project...that, almost alone, will breed success of this thing.

[Amph]

i woudl say that the community will respond to the halving prior to the halving itself, like it usually happen, not so much afterward

government is waiting for more adoption to partecipate in the process of regulating bitcoin, it seems that every big istitution is waiting another one to enter in play...

[Mickeyb]

This is a complicated question to answer. It certainly won't be one thing but rather many things that will happen during the next 12 months and they will all react together to move the price upwards or downwards!

You know, Bitcoin has many use cases and all of these fields that Bitcoin covers are developing at its own pace. So anything from governmental decisions over to the Bitcoin core decisions, our own progress, user adoption, lack of drama in the next year, etc will have a great influence on Bitcoin price!

[Meuh6879]

in 2016, customers want low price at any ... solution.

bitcoin can take a part from this because it erases the bankster tax ... and can reinject economy instead of the cashless laws (applies on 01/01/2016).

oh, and ... in 01/01/2016 ... the law of Bail-In are effectives (BANK can STEAL YOUR MONEY from you BANK account, LEGALLY).

[morris826]

in 2016, customers want low price at any ... solution.

bitcoin can take a part from this because it erases the bankster tax ... and can reinject economy instead of the cashless laws (applies on 01/01/2016).

oh, and ... in 01/01/2016 ... the law of Bail-In are effectives (BANK can STEAL YOUR MONEY from you BANK account, LEGALLY).

In which countries does the new bankster tax law come in on 01/01/2016, and have you got a link to an official government site exlaining when the new law comes in? I have been waiting for it to happen, but I thought they can only steal a part of anything above about $100k, and they have to leave anything below that figure untouched.

[RubyPaul1]

I think one of the biggest deal will be blocksize or blockchain pruning at 2016 or maybe 2017+. Mainstream adoption mostly depends on these kind of technical limitations. I believe when these are resolved then bitcoin price will skyrocket...

[NorrisK]

Block halving will definately be moving the price around next year. Other factors may just be gaining traction in general.

And something new or amazing could be around the corner always.

[Lituation]

I think it will be the block halving. Don't underestimate that factor, because it'll be only the second time in Bitcoin history. I guess until August we only talk about that situation and it has big effects in Bitcoin price.

[lissandra]

Hmmm.

I mean most of these factors are all on-going things though, esp the government part. But overall, I think the biggest factors would come from more bitcoin start ups or the ones that got the VC funding, they make more main stream appeal.

I honestly dont know, but it would have to come from something huge like amazon adopting bitcoin or some announcement.

[Meuh6879]

In which countries does the new bankster tax law come in on 01/01/2016, and have you got a link to an official government site exlaining when the new law comes in?

http://www.europarl.europa.eu/news/en/news-room/content/20131212IPR30702/html/Deal-reached-on-bank-%E2%80%9Cbail-in-directive%E2%80%9D

The directive is to enter into force on 1 Jauary 2015 and the bail-in system is to take effect on 1 January 2016.

[Meuh6879]

That's why, in december 2013 ... i have take somes infos about Bitcoin network to isolate my life economies because the rules have been adopted in december 2013 to be fully operational on 01/01/2016 in all countries.

[suda123]

That's why, in december 2013 ... i have take somes infos about Bitcoin network to isolate my life economies because the rules have been adopted in december 2013 to be fully operational on 01/01/2016 in all countries.

Oh its that Mr.Pump do you also post on 4chan?

[azguard]

besides halving main factor will be world economy at that moment
we all saw what happen with btc with Cyprus and Greece crisis
if something similar happen then we can count that in equations and speculate big