|
May 17, 2012, 11:09:05 PM |
|
Let me try to explain why I think inflation is low. Please correct any flaws in my reasoning.
It has generally been observed that, in the short term, there is an inverse correlation between unemployment and inflation. Unemployment is high.
Another argument can be made, when we acknowledge that there is a natural rate of unemployment. The unemployment rate oscillates around this natural rate. Now, if we hold the rate of inverse correlation to inflation constant, we can see that the inflation rate similarly oscillates. Perhaps the average can be called the natural rate of inflation. This is a non-zero number.
Before saying that printing money and low interest rates cause inflation, we have to look at the circumstances. Much money was lost when banks cut lending. This money was replaced, and then some. In order for the replacement money to cause inflation, it must first be spent. Due to low demand and reluctant lending, this is not happening. So inflation remains low. Increased demand would increase inflation.
It is true that we have a negative real interest rate. This does not mean that inflation is high; interest rates are low. The idea is to make other investments more attractive. Investment here can mean real estate, stocks, increased lending, or a new tv.
|