Why are people predicting the price going down? I predict it steadily growing

[etheral]

http://puu.sh/cipnn/5314307f71.png

If we ignore the crazy ups and downs caused by the speculators, Bitcoin grew about a 100% this year, it's not that crazy for such a new technology

I predict a minimum of 50% growth by the next year, with a maximum being unpredictable at this point

Black markets are thriving, bitcoin IS used for a real exchange and it cannot be easily replaced, whether some people like this or not. This is what really support the bitcoin economy right now and people failing to see that are missing some critical points, if not for black markets, we would have seen bitcoin prices falling to $50, 100$ but there is a large group of people that USE bitcoins in large amounts for real purchases.

I can't see people starting to use Bitcoins for everyday purchases any time soon unless we are hit by a disastrous economic downfall that threatens people savings (which is very possible in the future)
Recent stock prices fall and governments around the world lowering interest rates again.
Uncertainty in the Euro zone.

Just my thoughts

[Dalmar]

Look at the fiat volumes on bitcoin exchanges, most of the fiat volume came in post-250. A significant portion of bitcoiners are underwater.
Hence, all the bearish sentiment. The price has not been steadily rising for most.

[pereira4]

Look at the fiat volumes on bitcoin exchanges, most of the fiat volume came in post-250. A significant portion of bitcoiners are underwater.
Hence, all the bearish sentiment. The price has not been steadily rising for most.

Yeah the MCD graphs show a dowtrend... OP TA analysts are trying to find a bottom before we can talk about a recover. If you trust in Bitcoin as I do we know it will go back up, but the interesting to focus at is on the Bottom so one can but a lot of cheap BTC.

[yayayo]

Look at the fiat volumes on bitcoin exchanges, most of the fiat volume came in post-250. A significant portion of bitcoiners are underwater.
Hence, all the bearish sentiment. The price has not been steadily rising for most.

Without doubt we have a quite bearish sentiment for now. But Bitcoin usage is definitely growing. So I think the bearish sentiment is not backed by fundamentals and will reverse in the foreseeable future.

Bitcoin is not just another investment like stocks and bonds. It definitely has the properties of a currency and therefore has a use on its own as a "value transfer vehicle". The more value is in transfer through Bitcoin, the higher Bitcoin's value.

So I agree with OP.

ya.ya.yo!

[pereira4]

Yes it's getting more "used", if by used you mean people like "Overstock" accepting it, and by accepting it you mean they sell at marketprice as soon as they get them. This is a problem. We need a real economy, that isnt.

[inca]

Yes it's getting more "used", if by used you mean people like "Overstock" accepting it, and by accepting it you mean they sell at marketprice as soon as they get them. This is a problem. We need a real economy, that isnt.

It isn't a problem. A large part of bitcoin will always be its role as a tradable speculative store of value. As the price rises volatility has reduced. Watch the coinbase AMA to see the true effect of merchant integration.

These price moves are pretty much down to speculation. And mining of new coins. That's it.

[Gumbork]

Yes it's getting more "used", if by used you mean people like "Overstock" accepting it, and by accepting it you mean they sell at marketprice as soon as they get them. This is a problem. We need a real economy, that isnt.

I believe most merchant sell them immediately except for overstock. The ceo seems to keep a portion of it.

[CryptoCarmen]

Yes it's getting more "used", if by used you mean people like "Overstock" accepting it, and by accepting it you mean they sell at marketprice as soon as they get them. This is a problem. We need a real economy, that isnt.

I believe most merchant sell them immediately except for overstock. The ceo seems to keep a portion of it.

Merchants just sell goods they get from manufacturers. So unless they pay them in BTC yes they exchange BTC into whatever manufacturers want. Merchants are not wizards that use magic to get goods from thin air.

[resya]

I think the drop will end at around $350, tomorrow we go up a bit and next week we'll drop more. That's what think it will happen

[kwukduck]

I really don't understand the fuzz about merchant acceptance causing downward pressure. Before those btc can be spent and sold at market price they have to be bought. But wait, you say, those coins spent are from the early adopters! Orly? If they wanted to use those btc or spend them so badly and never convert back they would have already.

[faince222]

People want to predict only that they want that will happen. Bitcoin trend from their creation is surely positive, and only news about his fall, are only rumor, not else.

[NotLambchop]

...Bitcoin trend from their creation is surely positive...

Yes, Bitcoin's initial price was 0 (zero).  Price climbing above that constitutes a positive trend.  Thanks for the sciences.

[PenAndPaper]

People don't predict. People wish... and the most sopshisticated of them use kindergartner-level TA to support their wishes...

[Room101]

Just look at the charts on blockchain. BTC is growing steadily. USD transactional volume is up 300% from this time last year, which corresponds pretty closely with the price. Most people here seem to have unrealistic expectations of how bitcoin will make them millionaires overnight with no real effort or risk on their part. By the end of 2015 BTC will be over $1000. That's damn good growth, just stop expecting to make shit loads in a matter of weeks. There may well be more speculative bubbles, but steady growth through adoption is what you should be banking on.

Most people seem to be pretty bearish right now, based purely on the price returning to more sustainable levels of growth. Up 300% in a year is an excellent return.

[brg444]

Merchant adoption, currency use & payments systems are distractions.

Do not be fooled that their marginal performance reflects BTC's

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=801737.msg9054448#msg9054448

[NotLambchop]

...Most people seem to be pretty bearish right now, based purely on the price returning to more sustainable levels of growth...

Last year exponential growth was being touted as not just sustainable, but verging on mathematical certainty.

Was there ever a price at which you told people "Don't buy you idiot, sell!  This is unsustainable"?

[Brewins]

people predicting the price going down because the price is in fact going down.

if things change, they will predict the opposite.