The long awaited auction by US Marshals of 50,000 Silk Road bitcoins has finally been held, with the volume of bids reportedly well down on the previous auction of 30,000 coins in June. No word as yet on the price (which was kept confidential last time), but given what we know it seems highly likely the bitcoins were bought well below the current market price.
The BTC/USD opened below its daily moving average at 377 on the 4H Bitfinex chart and continued its (now rather tedious) sideways trend at an RSI of around 47. This indicated a near-term bearish presence in the market, a conclusion which was given further weight when a large seller on BitStamp dumped around 716 Bitcoins late in the day and pushed the price from 377 to 367, just below the lower Bollinger Band. This sale caused market volatility to quickly increase as evidenced by the increased gap between the pink and saffron lines in the chart above. Strong buying hands at around 367-370 brought the price back to just below the daily moving average, a point at which it sits at press time. Overall, this indicates near-term bearish sentiment.
What do we expect today?
A technical reading of the BTC/USD Bitfinex chart shows the price marginally below the 100-, 50- and 20-hour SMAs and EMAs, while the RSI is somewhere near 45. This indicates bearish bias in the market which has the potential to move the price south in next few hours. There is, however, a strong support level at around 365 which might act as an active barrier to help rebut any downtrend. If the price manages to break below the 365 support we see the next reversal sitting near the November bottom of 350 with downside risk towards 320. In the event that the price bounces off the 365 support, we see the next resistance level at around 390 with upside risk towards the 400-405 area.
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