Difference in exchange prices

[notung]

BTCChina: 403 USD (2450 CNY)
MtGox:    390 USD
Bitstamp: 354 USD
BTC-e:    344 USD


Any suggestion about these big differences? I know that they prices are often different... but so much? Is it an indication of something? It looks to me that this disagreement in prices is a sign of a tendency change... But I have no idea. What it's your opinion?

[firstlast]

Nothing special here. Right now it's a buyer's market, so the long time it takes to deposit fiat into the exchanges is contributing to the price gaps.

[Boxman90]

BTCChina price = fake, because 0 trading fees, selling to oneself is encouraged, easy to mass manipulate price and fake high volume

MtGox price = fake, because USD (and EUR) can't leave there. All withdrawals take >2 months, so you currently can NOT get your money out. To get any currency out, one has to convert (BUY --> higher price) to BTC. (recent rumors have it that even BTC withdrawals are grinding to a halt). One could say that due to the inability to withdraw MtGox USD, "MtGox USD" as a currency is worth less than normal USD you can move around the globe in a day or three.

Bitstamp price (358 at moment of writing) = okay at the moment, only healthy market (along with BTC-e) currently.

BTC-e price (347 at moment of writing) two factors:

a) Currently USD/EUR at BTC-e is 1.315, actual value is 1.335. BTC-e USD's are worth more in that sense - 1.335/1.315*347 = 353. But this is only because I'm European, and will cash out in Euros.

b) LTC market is really big there. Due to switching from BTC to LTC and back, arbitrage bots will suppress the BTC-price a bit compared to other exchanges (a few dollars)


I don't see too much weird going on here.

[firstlast]

Any word on when BTCChina will start charging fees again for trading?

[notung]

BTCChina price = fake, because 0 trading fees, selling to oneself is encouraged, easy to mass manipulate price and fake high volume

MtGox price = fake, because USD (and EUR) can't leave there. All withdrawals take >2 months, so you currently can NOT get your money out. To get any currency out, one has to convert (BUY --> higher price) to BTC. (recent rumors have it that even BTC withdrawals are grinding to a halt). One could say that due to the inability to withdraw MtGox USD, "MtGox USD" as a currency is worth less than normal USD you can move around the globe in a day or three.

Bitstamp price (358 at moment of writing) = okay at the moment, only healthy market (along with BTC-e) currently.

BTC-e price (347 at moment of writing) two factors:

a) Currently USD/EUR at BTC-e is 1.315, actual value is 1.335. BTC-e USD's are worth more in that sense - 1.335/1.315*347 = 353. But this is only because I'm European, and will cash out in Euros.

b) LTC market is really big there. Due to switching from BTC to LTC and back, arbitrage bots will suppress the BTC-price a bit compared to other exchanges (a few dollars)


I don't see too much weird going on here.

It makes sense what you say. Thanks for the reply!

[superduh]

BTCChina price = fake, because 0 trading fees, selling to oneself is encouraged, easy to mass manipulate price and fake high volume

MtGox price = fake, because USD (and EUR) can't leave there. All withdrawals take >2 months, so you currently can NOT get your money out. To get any currency out, one has to convert (BUY --> higher price) to BTC. (recent rumors have it that even BTC withdrawals are grinding to a halt). One could say that due to the inability to withdraw MtGox USD, "MtGox USD" as a currency is worth less than normal USD you can move around the globe in a day or three.

Bitstamp price (358 at moment of writing) = okay at the moment (fake because people are using bitstamp to cash out hence driving the price down), only healthy market (along with BTC-e) currently.

BTC-e price (347 at moment of writing) two factors:

a) Currently USD/EUR at BTC-e is 1.315, actual value is 1.335. BTC-e USD's are worth more in that sense - 1.335/1.315*347 = 353. But this is only because I'm European, and will cash out in Euros.

b) LTC market is really big there. Due to switching from BTC to LTC and back, arbitrage bots will suppress the BTC-price a bit compared to other exchanges (a few dollars)
lowest volume of all the exchanges. prices also down for those trying to cash out

I don't see too much weird going on here.
people in different countries can value BTC differently and hence different prices. also, as mentioned because different deposit/withdrawl methods and different locations of exchanges it is an amazing arbitrage opportunity if you can make it work.

[theonewhowaskazu]

BTCChina price = fake, because 0 trading fees, selling to oneself is encouraged, easy to mass manipulate price and fake high volume

MtGox price = fake, because USD (and EUR) can't leave there. All withdrawals take >2 months, so you currently can NOT get your money out. To get any currency out, one has to convert (BUY --> higher price) to BTC. (recent rumors have it that even BTC withdrawals are grinding to a halt). One could say that due to the inability to withdraw MtGox USD, "MtGox USD" as a currency is worth less than normal USD you can move around the globe in a day or three.

Bitstamp price (358 at moment of writing) = okay at the moment, only healthy market (along with BTC-e) currently.

BTC-e price (347 at moment of writing) two factors:

a) Currently USD/EUR at BTC-e is 1.315, actual value is 1.335. BTC-e USD's are worth more in that sense - 1.335/1.315*347 = 353. But this is only because I'm European, and will cash out in Euros.

b) LTC market is really big there. Due to switching from BTC to LTC and back, arbitrage bots will suppress the BTC-price a bit compared to other exchanges (a few dollars)


I don't see too much weird going on here.

I call BS on the first one.

"Selling to yourself" can only happen within the spread. What am I getting by manipulating the "last" price within the spread, other than boosting the total china volume?

[Boxman90]

(fake because people are using bitstamp to cash out hence driving the price down)

People cashing out driving the price down are genuine market forces. There is nothing fake about that, _at all_. Yes if people want to cash out, prices drop. If people want Bitcoin, price rises..

I call BS on the first one.

"Selling to yourself" can only happen within the spread. What am I getting by manipulating the "last" price within the spread, other than boosting the total china volume?

Fake buys and sells can manipulate the market. If you put up a 1000 BTC wall, and sell that to yourself (minus some collateral from the small orders in front of it), all the people see is a 1000 BTC wall being eaten like chump change. This creates fake momentum upwards, pushing people towards buying.

Just regular fees would prevent you from trickery like that. For all we know the entire upswing of yesterday was completely faked by one giant whale. There's no natural mechanism (fees) to prevent such manipulation.

Also,

it is an amazing arbitrage opportunity if you can make it work.

The kicker is that you CAN'T make it work.

Arbitrage with Gox is 100% IMPOSSIBLE due to the 2 month withdrawal delay. The market moves more than the spread in a matter of mere days.

Arbitrage with BTCChina is also impossible, for you need to have a chinese bank account in order to cash out there. Even if you have that, it'll take multiple days if not weeks to get your CNY converted to USD and sent to a USD bank account of your own, and then on to another exchange. Prices will have moved more than the spread with BTCChina within that period.

[theonewhowaskazu]

(fake because people are using bitstamp to cash out hence driving the price down)

People cashing out driving the price down are genuine market forces. There is nothing fake about that, _at all_. Yes if people want to cash out, prices drop. If people want Bitcoin, price rises..

I call BS on the first one.

"Selling to yourself" can only happen within the spread. What am I getting by manipulating the "last" price within the spread, other than boosting the total china volume?

Fake buys and sells can manipulate the market. If you put up a 1000 BTC wall, and sell that to yourself (minus some collateral from the small orders in front of it), all the people see is a 1000 BTC wall being eaten like chump change. This creates fake momentum upwards, pushing people towards buying.

Just regular fees would prevent you from trickery like that. For all we know the entire upswing of yesterday was completely faked by one giant whale. There's no natural mechanism (fees) to prevent such manipulation.

You're trolling so bad right here. How does creating a bit sell wall and selling it to yourself do anything? It does nothing. People see that 1000 BTC wall being sold like its chump change, and they also see 1000 BTC wall being bought like its chump change. "Pulling the wall" on gox is just as misleading. Anybody worth their salt won't give a flying fuck about such arbitrary orderbook changes.

[superduh]

Boxman, you sound like you know what you are talking about. just want to make a few small corrections/explain better.
1) you are making an assumption that btcchina allows people to buy and sell to themselves. any non amateur platform wouldn't allow that. not sure if they do but i would doubt it.
2) just like you said mtgox price is fake since people only buy btc, i'm stretching to say bitstamp is fake since most people use it to cash out of mtgox. the "true price" would be somewhere between mtgox and bitstamp.

3) you are correct people can't arbitrage well at moment. once ltc is enabled on most of those exchanges the prices should be much more closer to each other.

[Boxman90]

@theonewhowaskazu, you're clearly not trading or highly inexperienced. 9 out of 10 times if a giant wall gets eaten, the price spikes up heavily afterwards due to buying momentum (sure, it comes down afterwards, but it shoots the hell up first). Aka people 'panic buying'. Herd mentality. Why am I even explaining this? It's common sense. If you can fake upwards momentum, people will follow.

I saw it today with the 1000BTC wall in bitstamp, and we have seen it a few days back with the 6K Gox wall.

[bitcoin carpenter]

I think the price fluctuation is mostly due to demographic pressure... most of the existing btc are being held in europe and the usa, where there is less buying pressure because there is some early market saturation.
In china their is a large "possibly manipulated" demand for btc, but they have to wait for btc to come on the market from mining or from arbitage, in other words they need to drive the price up to pull the btc out of early buyers hands.

However you look at it, the price will be moved by the largest players, and China is the biggest whale in the room atm