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Author Topic: Trading Oil for BTC?  (Read 1833 times)
Possum577
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January 10, 2015, 09:12:23 PM
 #21

obviously people selling their bitcoin to buy Oil
the Oil's price are very low now

"People" don't buy barrels of crude oil. Large companies buy oil to refine into  motor oil or gasoline or diesel.

altcointalk14 (OP)
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January 11, 2015, 05:09:33 PM
 #22

Lots of things happen due to "coincidence", in fact coincidence is merely the human nature of trying to associate connections to things that aren't connected.

I do, however, think this is an interesting thing to analyze further. Can you compare the price of BTC/USD and the price of oil back 3 years and track it going forward? That's the only way to see if a trend is emerging, and know that even if a trend emerges it DOESN'T mean that there is a causal relationship.

I look forward to seeing more analysis you're able to put together and share.

Prior to Feb 2014 there is nowhere near any correlation, USD/BTC was off the chart, and in 2013/2012 btc was around $1.  Obviously BTC was not created to do this, but when the value and transaction volume became large enough ($1100/BTC in Dec 2013), MAYBE someone/somegroup decided to use btc to try to get around some sanctions.  (this does not represent global oil production just a couple tankers a week)

I dont have my original data anymore, I never even saved the file.  But with data prior to Feb 2014 it was hard to see the correlation last 12 months  (It was like 0.01 BTC/barrel at some points and that value moved up and down drastically making no logical sense)  You make a good point Possum, if some could see the graph with prior year data with absolutely no correlation with BTC/barrel ratio all over the universe, then all of a sudden it remains constant, not for a week, or a month, but for an entire year, you have to say hmmm.
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January 11, 2015, 06:36:25 PM
 #23

Considering how strict China is, I cannot see them using BTC to buy oil. But I like the chart, and if it went back more than a year I think it would be plausible and considering that it is a process to buy coins. I cant see them, buying bitcoins just to buy oil seems pointless to me, because they could just use cash.
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January 11, 2015, 08:47:38 PM
 #24

The price of a single bitcoin is arbitrary so it has no causal link to what you pay for a barrel of oil.
illyiller
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January 11, 2015, 10:49:13 PM
 #25

All this shows is that they are both going down since a year ago.
BTCreward
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January 12, 2015, 12:34:22 AM
 #26

There is a website called dubious correlations, I think this belongs there.
I don't see global oil production or usage bring linked to the bitcoin price at all!
This is right. The dollar has been overall strong as of the last several months because it is speculated that the federal reserve will start rising short term interest rates to more normal levels.

In addition to the dollar and oil that the dollar has strengthened against, it has strengthened against most foreign currencies, especially emerging markets

I did a very crude analysis using monthly average prices 

lol

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January 12, 2015, 06:30:50 PM
 #27

PavementBlackTop
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January 12, 2015, 09:16:36 PM
 #28

You can prob trade crude on 1Broker or on some other future platform. That includes barrels!
cryptoboy.architect
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January 13, 2015, 02:49:12 AM
 #29

http://www.tylervigen.com/

Yup it belongs there.
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