The next bitcoin boom phase will be driven by the USA.

[BitchicksHusband]

Even the winklevii don't dare to speak for a price above 40k$ and yet everyone else is dreaming of 1m$ bitcoin... 

They have an SEC fund.  They are forced to speak conservatively.

[Melbustus]

Even the winklevii don't dare to speak for a price above 40k$ and yet everyone else is dreaming of 1m$ bitcoin... 

They have an SEC fund.  They are forced to speak conservatively.

Well, they don't actually have a fund, yet. That'll probably take a while (years?) to get approved, if ever. More likely that the first bitcoin-ETF we get comes from an already well-established firm producing and managing similar products.

But $40k/btc is not particularly conservative. And they even say they consider it a "small bull-case scenario". So they're thinking higher as their target success-case. But really think about what higher than $40k/btc would mean. That'd mean a market-cap of >$1T (at full 21m BTC issuance). As much of a long-term bitcoin bull as I am, I think the hurdles to getting significantly beyond that valuation are pretty high. Bitcoin would have to have fought, and won, many political battles, as well as the battles for mindshare among consumers, businesses, Wall St., etc.

Don't get me wrong - I think bitcoin is a powerful enough idea that these cases are theoretically possible, but I also think such success-cases, if they materialize, are necessarily a long way off.

[chriswilmer]

Even the winklevii don't dare to speak for a price above 40k$ and yet everyone else is dreaming of 1m$ bitcoin... 

They have an SEC fund.  They are forced to speak conservatively.

Well, they don't actually have a fund, yet. That'll probably take a while (years?) to get approved, if ever. More likely that the first bitcoin-ETF we get comes from an already well-established firm producing and managing similar products.

But $40k/btc is not particularly conservative. And they even say they consider it a "small bull-case scenario". So they're thinking higher as their target success-case. But really think about what higher than $40k/btc would mean. That'd mean a market-cap of >$1T (at full 21m BTC issuance). As much of a long-term bitcoin bull as I am, I think the hurdles to getting significantly beyond that valuation are pretty high. Bitcoin would have to have fought, and won, many political battles, as well as the battles for mindshare among consumers, businesses, Wall St., etc.

Don't get me wrong - I think bitcoin is a powerful enough idea that these cases are theoretically possible, but I also think such success-cases, if they materialize, are necessarily a long way off.

For Bitcoin believers (i.e., us), I think this just comes down to an argument over what does "a long way off" mean? The Winklevii didn't give a timescale. A $1 million dollars per bitcoin (in today's dollars) does make sense as a kind of final, equilibrium valuation, and Bitcoin would need to have won all of the political, economic and technological battles for that to occur. Is it... 10 years away? 50 years away? 150 years away? $40k per bitcoin seems like a reasonable 5-10 year target (to me). $1 million per bitcoin could take over 50 years I think... major upheavals would need to have occurred and settled before we get to that point.

[GigaCoin]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IhnUgAaea4M

Not my intended sentiment, but....lol.

'Merica

[Wilhelm]

With over 42% of the US population aware of bitcoin, it makes sense that Bitcoin should probably be an American thing. Nowhere else, except european countries (where the Dutch apparently have 1% of the population owning bitcoin) is bitcoin so popular. And the legal/political system so free. :-)

W8 , there are 150k+ bitcoin owners in the Netherlands?
Any source for this ? Cause I find it amazing

Also , I deeply believe that the EU zone will be the one that really drives mass adoption , not this speculation bubble in China!
We need real shops and real users , not day traders.

Yep I'm actively promoting it

We brought apartheid, orange carrots, colonized half the planet, sold your New York to the english for Suriname and we even sold tulips for more money than a street in Amsterdam .... we're definately into bitcoin

[umaOuma]

Even the winklevii don't dare to speak for a price above 40k$ and yet everyone else is dreaming of 1m$ bitcoin... 

They have an SEC fund.  They are forced to speak conservatively.

I have to agree, I know if Bitcoin get successfull the price can go over 100K
It is not about price, but about Bitcoin usefullness, when I see the number of miners and money put in mining equipment, I have little doubt about Bitcoin future

[disruptornation]

The reason we don't have any solid US-based exchanges is due to state-by-state MTL requirements, and specifically, the surety-bond coverage requirements for businesses to obtain such licenses. Either Coinbase, Circle, or some new well-funded entity will go through the expensive work of getting the licenses, or start a fund/company that's knowledgeable about bitcoin and willing to underwrite the bond coverage.

I'm a little late to this discussion, but I actually gave a presentation about Bitcoin and surety bonds at the Inside Bitcoins Las Vegas conference in December. A bonding solution is already available and you're correct, it is the well-funded entities mentioned that I'm working with. It's a long road, but the companies that can weather the storm, will come out on top.

I've also written about the topic on www.msbtalk.com.

[Melbustus]

...
Along the way, someone is going to solve the money-transmission licensing problem. The reason we don't have any solid US-based exchanges is due to state-by-state MTL requirements, and specifically, the surety-bond coverage requirements for businesses to obtain such licenses. Either Coinbase, Circle, or some new well-funded entity will go through the expensive work of getting the licenses, or start a fund/company that's knowledgeable about bitcoin and willing to underwrite the bond coverage. Solving this problem will lead to much better liquidity in the US, and allow for some of the next-gen services outlined above, as well as advanced trading and hedging.
...

Looks like it was Coinbase:
http://www.wsj.com/articles/first-u-s-bitcoin-exchange-set-to-open-1422221641

[ajw7989]

When the Coinbase exchanges goes live in 12 hour or so bitcoin will definitely hit 300 or so. Its about time we have major news to pump up bitcoin 

[4ever]

With over 42% of the US population aware of bitcoin, it makes sense that Bitcoin should probably be an American thing. Nowhere else, except european countries (where the Dutch apparently have 1% of the population owning bitcoin) is bitcoin so popular. And the legal/political system so free. :-)

But aren't the laws the strictest in US and Russia as well ?

[Melbustus]

With over 42% of the US population aware of bitcoin, it makes sense that Bitcoin should probably be an American thing. Nowhere else, except european countries (where the Dutch apparently have 1% of the population owning bitcoin) is bitcoin so popular. And the legal/political system so free. :-)

But aren't the laws the strictest in US and Russia as well ?

It's really unclear what Russia's stance is. They *may* pass a law that imposes fines for using bitcoin in any way. Or not. We'll see.

As far as the US goes, the laws aren't "strict" for consumers. Owning and using bitcoin is not a problem. You get taxed on any capital-gains you may experience while holding bitcoin, but that's to be expected.

Where it gets ugly in the US is if you're running a financial service that uses bitcoin. If the business qualifies as a Money Services Business, you need to get separate licensing in every state in which you operate (ie, if you serve customers who reside in a given state), and that's very time consuming and expensive. Furthermore, in many cases, it's not even clear what businesses are classified as MSBs. Hopefully New York State's BitLicense proposal will clear some of that up, and potentially also trigger some convergence of money-transmission licensing rules between states, at least for digital currency businesses. We'll see.

[CoinRocka]

...
Along the way, someone is going to solve the money-transmission licensing problem. The reason we don't have any solid US-based exchanges is due to state-by-state MTL requirements, and specifically, the surety-bond coverage requirements for businesses to obtain such licenses. Either Coinbase, Circle, or some new well-funded entity will go through the expensive work of getting the licenses, or start a fund/company that's knowledgeable about bitcoin and willing to underwrite the bond coverage. Solving this problem will lead to much better liquidity in the US, and allow for some of the next-gen services outlined above, as well as advanced trading and hedging.
...

Looks like it was Coinbase:
http://www.wsj.com/articles/first-u-s-bitcoin-exchange-set-to-open-1422221641

Very, very nice call 

[ivyleague1985]

Nicely written article that I 100% agree with.

[Mellnik]

With over 42% of the US population aware of bitcoin, it makes sense that Bitcoin should probably be an American thing. Nowhere else, except european countries (where the Dutch apparently have 1% of the population owning bitcoin) is bitcoin so popular. And the legal/political system so free. :-)

And America has made its history and fame on innovation. The internet started where? That's right. So did planes and cars and electricity etc. etc. etc.

Wow dense...
The World Wide Web has been invented at CERN (Switzerland).

I don't know what you refer to by the term "car" but the first modern engine has been invented in Germany named "Ottomotor" as well as the first jet plane.

Airplanes have been invented by "Sir George Cayley" in England.

Bitcoin was also not invented in the USA. Americans are good at copying existing innovations nothing more. Now go on the street with a patriotism USA flag.