A potential top @ $12.16: the bearish case

[kano]

... and ... meanwhile it's on it's way back up again

The drop was probably a dump of BTC and the usual jumping around after that, but since the latest rise hasn't been a typical random bubble but is being backed by some sort of demand/support for BTC, it's continued after the dump.

... and if I'm wrong, yep I'll admit it, and the facts will show it too if I am wrong, I don't see any point in pretending I'm psychic

[1713954894]

1713954894

[thebaron]

A year from now, ya'll will be complaining about 25 cent price swings on $100 BTC.

[TraderTimm]

https://docs.google.com/open?id=0BzdbolIn7zf1czhubUR6R2RoQVU

Just wondering if the longer-term trendline holds.

[ElectricMucus]

You ever heard of the turtles?

[kano]

https://docs.google.com/open?id=0BzdbolIn7zf1czhubUR6R2RoQVU

Just wondering if the longer-term trendline holds.

You will find out ... in the longer-term.

[matthewh3]

https://docs.google.com/open?id=0BzdbolIn7zf1czhubUR6R2RoQVU

Just wondering if the longer-term trendline holds.

You will find out ... in the longer-term.

I think Pirate may have managed to slow the acceleration down a bit like he has before but the long term trend is definitely up tho maybe after a bit more correction but I'd like a bit more stability like from March 2012 to June 2012.

[BrightAnarchist]

I'd like a bit more stability like from March 2012 to June 2012.

I would too, but if I'm lucky and my count in the OP is accurate, than we should ultimately see more panic here than we did during the wave A decline from $32 to $2. A waves are generally coupled with a psychological backdrop of disappointment and surprise whereas C waves are when outright fear takes hold. If it does unfold in this manner, I hope to be buying like crazy at the bottom.

But... we'll just have to wait and see what happens I guess. There is no crystal ball, only probabilities.

[TraderTimm]

Updated the trend analysis here:

https://docs.google.com/open?id=0BzdbolIn7zf1dW5IQnpUWTllZHc

In the grip of the red candles, so far.

[proudhon]

A year from now, ya'll will be complaining about 25 cent price swings on $100 BTC.

That will most definitely not be the case.  I doubt the price will be out of the $2 to $15 range a year from now. 

[matthewh3]

I think this drop to ~$8 is just opening a buying opportunity to a lot of people.  Although bank transfers to exchanges takes up to three days.  So I expect the price to be going to ~$9 for Friday but a lot of people could sell off their coins they receive back off Pirate so maybe staying around ~$8.50.  I can't see it going below $7 (for long) unless all the buying pressure that caused the rally was based around Pirate.  Even if it was I can't see it going below $6 and staying there.  That's my view on the outlook anyway.