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znort987
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z
May 26, 2011, 10:19:43 PM
 #1

z

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1480869480
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ArsenShnurkov
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May 26, 2011, 10:25:46 PM
 #2

I can give more correct estimation - take number of geeks in the world (nobody else will use bitcoins),
then take 1/3 of their total salary (geeks can't in average spent more than this)
and then divide into 21M BTC
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May 26, 2011, 10:48:25 PM
 #3

I can give more correct estimation - take number of geeks in the world (nobody else will use bitcoins),
then take 1/3 of their total salary (geeks can't in average spent more than this)
and then divide into 21M BTC

This is way off base. I have no salary and a lot of coins. My relatives aren't geeks and have considerably >0 coins.

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May 26, 2011, 10:51:31 PM
 #4

Title misleading too. There are plenty of other currencies that will die too. We're world wide.

Even using all value held in currency is low imo. Rich people are smart enough not to hold a lot of wealth in crappy fiat currencies, but Bitcoin won't be such a bad default option. On top of that I think there will be wealth to be stored in Bitcoin world. But this just means a higher cap, not necessarily a likely scenario.

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AtlasONo
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May 26, 2011, 11:35:08 PM
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Only in your dreams
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May 26, 2011, 11:50:48 PM
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I think it is more like [World GDP in US$] x [% of BTC acceptance] / 21 Million

World GDP = $52.9 Trillion [1]  (2009)

So lets say BTC takes over 0.01% of the world economy

$52.9T * .0001 = $5.29B / 21M = $251.90/BTC

[1] - http://www.google.com/publicdata?ds=wb-wdi&met_y=ny_gdp_mktp_cd&tdim=true&dl=en&hl=en&q=world+gross+domestic+product
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May 27, 2011, 12:08:10 AM
 #7

Hard to justify using GDP imo. That's just a measure of what is spent in a year right? Or is it what's created in a year? Either way that's different than the value held in money. And the better the money the more value it can/will hold compared to total wealth.

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