The next bubble could well surprise even the early traders...

[Tirapon]

Just a theory, but I have a gut feeling that if we witness another bubble cycle, the majority of traders will underestimate the peak, possibly by a significant amount.

Why?

IMO the last two bubbles were nothing in the grand scheme of things. Even in the runup to 1200 USD, I would have guessed that maybe 1 in 10 people would have heard of Bitcoin. I think that figure could well be closer to 5 in 10 by now.

We have the two largest stock exchanges (NYSE, NASDAQ) giving credibility to the technology, and people seem to be educating themselves more so than they would have tended to a few years back

We will hopefully have the BIT providing access for institutional investment.

Wall street want their slice of the pie. But the pie is too small right now. So they're gonna have to make it bigger.

Why not load up now, drive the price to tens of thousands of dollars, and then cash out for ridiculous profits before repeating the whole thing.

This wouldn't even be market manipulation - simply buying an asset deemed to be undervalued, and then selling at profit. Natural market forces would drive the bubble thus nobody could be accused of manipulation, and it would be very easy money.

Am I missing something, or is this whole thing a lot more simple than most people are willing to believe?

[1713572797]

1713572797

[1713572797]

1713572797

[Q7]

Just a theory, but I have a gut feeling that if we witness another bubble cycle, the majority of traders will underestimate the peak, possibly by a significant amount.

Why?

IMO the last two bubbles were nothing in the grand scheme of things. Even in the runup to 1200 USD, I would have guessed that maybe 1 in 10 people would have heard of Bitcoin. I think that figure could well be closer to 5 in 10 by now.

We have the two largest stock exchanges (NYSE, NASDAQ) giving credibility to the technology, and people seem to be educating themselves more so than they would have tended to a few years back

We will hopefully have the BIT providing access for institutional investment.

Wall street want their slice of the pie. But the pie is too small right now. So they're gonna have to make it bigger.

Why not load up now, drive the price to tens of thousands of dollars, and then cash out for ridiculous profits before repeating the whole thing.

This wouldn't even be market manipulation - simply buying an asset deemed to be undervalued, and then selling at profit. Natural market forces would drive the bubble thus nobody could be accused of manipulation, and it would be very easy money.

Am I missing something, or is this whole thing a lot more simple than most people are willing to believe?

Sound nice but rather not. When it went from 1200 to current price right now, I just wonder what's the effect in terms of loss of reputation. What does people see in bitcoin? As a reliable currency? It will be good for those people who are looking to make a nice profit. But if you consider long term the negative effect is more profound and less people is going to trust bitcoin. As in previous thread, I've made it clear that we don't need wall street. These people are just there to make money and they don't care what the decentralization, low cost cross border transaction and the rest means to them.

[bassclef]

Once everyone who wants a slice of the Bitcoin pie buys at these price levels, hold onto your hats. Because once there's nothing left to sell, price goes up.

[tokeweed]

Just a theory, but I have a gut feeling

I stopped right there.  Theory and gut feeling shouldn't be used in the same sentence...  Especially when it relates to something that could make you lose some money.

[NotHatinJustTrollin]

Just a theory, but I have a gut feeling that if we witness another bubble cycle, the majority of traders will underestimate the peak, possibly by a significant amount.

Why?

IMO the last two bubbles were nothing in the grand scheme of things. Even in the runup to 1200 USD, I would have guessed that maybe 1 in 10 people would have heard of Bitcoin. I think that figure could well be closer to 5 in 10 by now.

We have the two largest stock exchanges (NYSE, NASDAQ) giving credibility to the technology, and people seem to be educating themselves more so than they would have tended to a few years back

We will hopefully have the BIT providing access for institutional investment.

Wall street want their slice of the pie. But the pie is too small right now. So they're gonna have to make it bigger.

Why not load up now, drive the price to tens of thousands of dollars, and then cash out for ridiculous profits before repeating the whole thing.

This wouldn't even be market manipulation - simply buying an asset deemed to be undervalued, and then selling at profit. Natural market forces would drive the bubble thus nobody could be accused of manipulation, and it would be very easy money.

Am I missing something, or is this whole thing a lot more simple than most people are willing to believe?

Bitcoiners are perfectly fine with their investment being a pump&dump.

[jaredboice]

Paid trolls are just fine with wasting their time in a forum on a topic they don't believe in

[Dilla]

Just a theory, but I have a gut feeling

I stopped right there.  Theory and gut feeling shouldn't be used in the same sentence...  Especially when it relates to something that could make you lose some money.

Isn't that how all theories are developed before researched or proven/unproven? "I have a gut feeling we don't actually have all the planets and stars revolve around us, but we revolve around the sun..."

[tokeweed]

Just a theory, but I have a gut feeling

I stopped right there.  Theory and gut feeling shouldn't be used in the same sentence...  Especially when it relates to something that could make you lose some money.

Isn't that how all theories are developed before researched or proven/unproven? "I have a gut feeling we don't actually have all the planets and stars revolve around us, but we revolve around the sun..."

Sure.  But that's astronomy.  This is money.  And any decision about money that involves a "gut feeling" would mostly lead to losses. 

[uki]

Just a theory, but I have a gut feeling

I stopped right there.  Theory and gut feeling shouldn't be used in the same sentence...  Especially when it relates to something that could make you lose some money.

Well, most of the posts in the speculation section are about gut feeling, rather than theory. It is a nice reading, though.

[Amph]

Just a theory, but I have a gut feeling

I stopped right there.  Theory and gut feeling shouldn't be used in the same sentence...  Especially when it relates to something that could make you lose some money.

Isn't that how all theories are developed before researched or proven/unproven? "I have a gut feeling we don't actually have all the planets and stars revolve around us, but we revolve around the sun..."

Sure.  But that's astronomy.  This is money.  And any decision about money that involves a "gut feeling" would mostly lead to losses.  

if you count every "gut feeling" here in this section, some truth might come ahead, i mean one of them must be right about the movement of bitcoin

it's more fun to read about opinions, than having the right prediction immedaitely, and personally i'm sharing the same feel of the OP, something big is coming...

[leen93]

Just a theory, but I have a gut feeling that if we witness another bubble cycle, the majority of traders will underestimate the peak, possibly by a significant amount.

Why?

IMO the last two bubbles were nothing in the grand scheme of things. Even in the runup to 1200 USD, I would have guessed that maybe 1 in 10 people would have heard of Bitcoin. I think that figure could well be closer to 5 in 10 by now.

We have the two largest stock exchanges (NYSE, NASDAQ) giving credibility to the technology, and people seem to be educating themselves more so than they would have tended to a few years back

We will hopefully have the BIT providing access for institutional investment.

Wall street want their slice of the pie. But the pie is too small right now. So they're gonna have to make it bigger.

Why not load up now, drive the price to tens of thousands of dollars, and then cash out for ridiculous profits before repeating the whole thing.

This wouldn't even be market manipulation - simply buying an asset deemed to be undervalued, and then selling at profit. Natural market forces would drive the bubble thus nobody could be accused of manipulation, and it would be very easy money.

Am I missing something, or is this whole thing a lot more simple than most people are willing to believe?

we will not
for one simple reason
you say : why not load up now, drive the price to tens of thousands of dollars, and then cash out for ridiculous profits before repeating the whole thing.

and THEN cash out
when is THEN? at 10.000 ? but then everyone is going to dump there and you'll never be able to sell it and we are low again in a few seconds. So everyone wants to cash out at 9.999 but no that's also too late then so lower and lower and lower... without any good reason we'll never see the 1000 $ again. But we probably will see something great coming up and becoming a reason sometime but nobody knows when. It can be next second or it can be in 5 years..

[rjp55]

My gut says something big is coming as well. Could easily be wrong and not sure what to expect, just a feeling something is on the horizon.

[techgeek]

My gut tells me to go eat a breakfast burrito and drink my premium water from my swarvoski cup.

But hey, whatever your gut feeling is, its 100% correct. Look no matter how you look at things, time is not on your side, so what I focus on is what can I do to prepare if the price does go up.

Am I doing the following:

1. Building a non traditional business / btc
2. Being aware that no one can control the future, but better being prepared is the key by focusing on other areas to support the 1st part above.

[Hyena]

Just a theory, but I have a gut feeling

I stopped right there.  Theory and gut feeling shouldn't be used in the same sentence...  Especially when it relates to something that could make you lose some money.

Isn't that how all theories are developed before researched or proven/unproven? "I have a gut feeling we don't actually have all the planets and stars revolve around us, but we revolve around the sun..."

Sure.  But that's astronomy.  This is money.  And any decision about money that involves a "gut feeling" would mostly lead to losses. 

Now that just tears it. Do you even know what gut feeling is? It's your connection with the silent knowing that goes beyond the comprehension of this petty little thing called your mind. I wouldn't normally step into arguments like that but you are outright spreading wrong and malicious information. Gut feeling is what people should listen to. It is the mind and the ego that make us do all the wrong decisions in life.

[Torque]

Just remember, there was a lot of doom and gloom in Aug 2013 as well.  People then thought that the April-May 2013 rally was still deflating, and that they were still headed down, more down. 

Then October happened...

I can completely understand the sentiment, this market is very unpredictable.  People expect the worst with bitcoin, instead of hoping for the best possible outcome long term.

[Bit_Happy]

Just a theory, but I have a gut feeling that if we witness another bubble cycle, the majority of traders will underestimate the peak, possibly by a significant amount.

Why?

IMO the last two bubbles were nothing in the grand scheme of things. Even in the runup to 1200 USD, I would have guessed that maybe 1 in 10 people would have heard of Bitcoin. I think that figure could well be closer to 5 in 10 by now.

We have the two largest stock exchanges (NYSE, NASDAQ) giving credibility to the technology, and people seem to be educating themselves more so than they would have tended to a few years back

We will hopefully have the BIT providing access for institutional investment.

Wall street want their slice of the pie. But the pie is too small right now. So they're gonna have to make it bigger.

Why not load up now, drive the price to tens of thousands of dollars, and then cash out for ridiculous profits before repeating the whole thing.

This wouldn't even be market manipulation - simply buying an asset deemed to be undervalued, and then selling at profit. Natural market forces would drive the bubble thus nobody could be accused of manipulation, and it would be very easy money.

Am I missing something, or is this whole thing a lot more simple than most people are willing to believe?

It is almost that simple:
There is still the slight chance of a huge, previously undiscovered bug in the Bitcoin code and/or an altcoin that somehow takes over.
The future should be very bright for Bitcoin. 

[uki]

Just remember, there was a lot of doom and gloom in Aug 2013 as well.  People then thought that the April-May 2013 rally was still deflating, and that they were still headed down, more down.  

Then October happened...

I can completely understand the sentiment, this market is very unpredictable.  People expect the worst with bitcoin, instead of hoping for the best possible outcome long term.

People seem to be unstable emotionally, at least the most of these that are posting in the speculation sub-forum. Every single day there is a new thread about either going to the moon, or going down to double digit, and then people are 'disappointed' when some healthy horizontal trend happens. It will be boring for the next month or two, nothing bad about it. Patience is the key!

[bassclef]

Just remember, there was a lot of doom and gloom in Aug 2013 as well.  People then thought that the April-May 2013 rally was still deflating, and that they were still headed down, more down. 

Then October happened...

I can completely understand the sentiment, this market is very unpredictable.  People expect the worst with bitcoin, instead of hoping for the best possible outcome long term.

People seem to be unstable emotionally, at least the most of these that are posting in the speculation sub-forum. Every single day there is a new thread about either going to the moon, or going down to double digit, and then people are 'disappointed' when some healthy horizontal trend happens. It will be boring for the next month or two, nothing bad about it. Patience is the key!

I think this "unstable" trollish behavior is primarily those who either missed the boat at single/double digits, sold too early or lost their coin somehow and now are angry and bitter, or can't afford much and see it as an opportunity to better their economic status. Some are trading, talking their books, risking what they already have to make more. Some are simply angry and jealous. Their emotions reflect that they are (or were) invested somehow.

Overall I get the sense that most here are self-interested, trying to increase their stash of a very limited and soon-to-be more expensive digitally-limited commodity.

We're near the bottom of a market cycle that plays out over years, so it is very difficult for many to take a longer-term view. I do think the market will turn around this year, either gradually or violently, which will help sentiment a lot but unfortunately draw in many new users looking to get rich, probably more so than 2013 given Bitcoin's increased publicity. Those that buy near the top will become future weak hands that will drive the subsequent and unavoidable bear market. Those few that stuck out the bear market will now be in a much stronger position. Exciting times if it happens.

[MiningAtlas]

people who sell at $2000 will be shocked when we hit $15000

[ensurance982]

Yeah, I think one of the biggest advantages we now have may be the sheer mass of people with a lot of money lying around watching Bitcoin to see if it bubbles again at some point. If it does, they will enter. Just wait for a trend-reversal...