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Author Topic: Hobbyist miners forced out today?  (Read 6500 times)
w128
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May 27, 2011, 05:58:01 PM
 #21

network hashrate wouldnt change srsly because of ppl <300mhash

Not true at all. Half the users on BTCguild contribute <300 Mhash and they account for over 10% of the total pool hashrate.

I'd wager that <300Mhash users have even greater representation in the general population.
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May 27, 2011, 05:58:23 PM
 #22

Given that entry line and enthusiast AMD gfx cards scale in their mhash per Watt, I see zero argument / sense in differentiating between "hobby" miners vs "pros".

How could there be? The MARGIN stays the same issue regardless of how much VOLUME you have.

If it somehow becomes unprofitable for the current AMD generation of gfx cards, it becomes unprofitable for _ALL_ of them.

Regardless of whether it is some dude running 10 machines of 6990s or one normal guy with a 5770 - setting aside other hardware components / power draw sources, of course.
Yeah, I was thinking the same thing as well, just neglected to put it in writing.

It really depends on MHash/watts as far as whether a given setup will remain profitable.  But if you have a rig with 4 of the most efficient cards on the planet, then you could stay in business just as easily as a "professional" miner would.
acamus
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May 27, 2011, 06:12:55 PM
 #23

i'm just waiting on the bounty for the cost effective FPGA miner to come through, that would possibly change some things

Short Bitcoin  (http://forum.bitcoin.org/index.php?topic=12536.0) if you dare.
http://www.tradebitcoin.com/
http://oneminuteslow.com/bitcoin/100-20.png (http://forum.bitcoin.org/index.php?topic=8895.0)
15V8JNvmvuWnRF3r6hfTyLL1ukyfp
JayC
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May 27, 2011, 06:13:16 PM
 #24

Given that entry line and enthusiast AMD gfx cards scale in their mhash per Watt, I see zero argument / sense in differentiating between "hobby" miners vs "pros".

How could there be? The MARGIN stays the same issue regardless of how much VOLUME you have.

If it somehow becomes unprofitable for the current AMD generation of gfx cards, it becomes unprofitable for _ALL_ of them.

Regardless of whether it is some dude running 10 machines of 6990s or one normal guy with a 5770 - setting aside other hardware components / power draw sources, of course.

You're focusing on just the cards, not the infrastructure, power costs, or labor...  If you're paying $.25 per kwh and I'm paying $.08 kwh...  things become unprofitable for you, way before they do for me.

Also scale as well...  if you have 1 machine making $1 USD a day profit... it might not be worth the headache....  but if I have 200 machines making $1 a day profit it might very well be worth the headache.
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May 27, 2011, 06:18:55 PM
 #25

Given that entry line and enthusiast AMD gfx cards scale in their mhash per Watt, I see zero argument / sense in differentiating between "hobby" miners vs "pros".

How could there be? The MARGIN stays the same issue regardless of how much VOLUME you have.

If it somehow becomes unprofitable for the current AMD generation of gfx cards, it becomes unprofitable for _ALL_ of them.

Regardless of whether it is some dude running 10 machines of 6990s or one normal guy with a 5770 - setting aside other hardware components / power draw sources, of course.

You're focusing on just the cards, not the infrastructure, power costs, or labor...  If you're paying $.25 per kwh and I'm paying $.08 kwh...  things become unprofitable for you, way before they do for me.

Also scale as well...  if you have 1 machine making $1 USD a day profit... it might not be worth the headache....  but if I have 200 machines making $1 a day profit it might very well be worth the headache.

As soon as it gets to $1 a day per machine I'll be out of here. That's how much it costs per machine, if each machine uses the full wattage available to it. I know that is unlikely as there is actually very little in the machine, but it's always good to have a limit set for my escape Smiley
w128
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May 27, 2011, 06:24:41 PM
 #26

Given that entry line and enthusiast AMD gfx cards scale in their mhash per Watt, I see zero argument / sense in differentiating between "hobby" miners vs "pros".

How could there be? The MARGIN stays the same issue regardless of how much VOLUME you have.

If it somehow becomes unprofitable for the current AMD generation of gfx cards, it becomes unprofitable for _ALL_ of them.

Regardless of whether it is some dude running 10 machines of 6990s or one normal guy with a 5770 - setting aside other hardware components / power draw sources, of course.

I think most of these discussions would benefit from differentiating between profitable and "worthwhile".

To use an extreme example:

Few people would consider mining with a single device for a gain of $1.00 per day to be worthwhile even though it's technically profitable. However, the same margin at 2000x that scale might be equally profitable but widely considered worthwhile.

At that scale you could even hire a couple of employees to handle daily operations and set aside a fund to replace the 4 or 5 devices that would fail each week while still turning a tidy profit.
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May 27, 2011, 06:26:44 PM
 #27

No.

300MH/s = .67BTC/day
= $5.70/day
= $171/month

And anyone with that kind of MH/s is probably using no more than 250w of electricity, so 180kwh/month, or about $18 more in electricity per month.  Well, if you get decent rates on electricity, anyway.  $72/month at most though.

Mining is far from being unprofitable.  When difficulty hits 4M, then we'll talk about it being unprofitable for a good portion of hobbyist miners.
This is a plausible scenario.  What cracks me up is the people who assume the BTC exchange rate will stay the same forever Smiley  Look at the historicals.  It's only going UP.

But if you think the rate will go up, it's more efficient to buy BTC than to mine them.
w128
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May 27, 2011, 06:37:43 PM
 #28

No.

300MH/s = .67BTC/day
= $5.70/day
= $171/month

And anyone with that kind of MH/s is probably using no more than 250w of electricity, so 180kwh/month, or about $18 more in electricity per month.  Well, if you get decent rates on electricity, anyway.  $72/month at most though.

Mining is far from being unprofitable.  When difficulty hits 4M, then we'll talk about it being unprofitable for a good portion of hobbyist miners.
This is a plausible scenario.  What cracks me up is the people who assume the BTC exchange rate will stay the same forever Smiley  Look at the historicals.  It's only going UP.

But if you think the rate will go up, it's more efficient to buy BTC than to mine them.

I'm starting to get tired of seeing this.

If buying and selling BTC were as simple and straightforward as mining has become, it would be a good point. As things stand it's nowhere near it.

A newcomer can start mining and take his first payout in minutes. An ambitious one can build an array of machines and mine for nearly a week before his payments clear through Dwolla and MtGox.

Instant, or at least fast gratification and ease of use is very important.
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May 27, 2011, 06:53:44 PM
 #29

When mining earnings are about equal to power costs, I have been developing a plan to rectify the situation. If you can't increase your mining production, you should decrease your power costs. "But how can you do that?" you might ask, quizzically, turning your head sideways like a confused little precious puppy. The solution is in converting computer heat to power. I have created a system of heatsinks that directs all of my heat to a small turbine filled with methanol. Why methanol? Because it has a boiling point of 65 degrees Celsius, silly goose, which is a bit below the temperature of my video cards. The heat boils the methanol and the gas drives the turbine, which turns an electricity generator (and also is used to rotate a foot massager).

It's not very efficient, but that's where this plan gets better. I can drastically increase the money I get from power generation by directing the methanol vapors to my neighbor, who is a huge jerk who keeps birds in his apartment and lets them fly out his window as they please. The methanol will probably cause him to faint, and then I can take his birds and eat them. This will save me the $20 per month that I normally spend on dead birds, not to mention my normal $12 foot massage budget. This system might not work for you guys, so you'll have to find what works most efficiently for you. Go hog wild. Be creative. Have fun. For example, you might use cats instead of birds. The possibilities here are endless.

Or you could just use the heat to distill ethanol, and give that to hobos in exchange for whatever dead birds they might have found around town. This is a lucrative, untapped market and you've really got to get in early.

Also I have found a lot of large batteries just sitting under the hoods of cars nearby, and these are great for charging at the library, and then carrying home to use to power your computers.

Furthermore, I have found that my apartment is hot enough now that I don't need clothing anymore, so I sold my clothes and now I am a nudist. This has corollary advantages in that sometimes people will actually pay me money to leave from certain places! Don't tell them this, but I was probably going to leave those places anyway because I was getting cold. As a bonus, most bus drivers will let you ride for free if you no longer have pockets and pretend not to understand what they mean when they say "Sir, please pay the bus fare." I offer them one of my car batteries as a gesture of good will, but they never accept it.

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m4rkiz
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May 27, 2011, 06:58:33 PM
 #30

300MH/s = .67BTC/day
= $5.70/day
= $171/month

there are THREE difficulty increases per month, so it is going to be nowhere near $171 per month, $5.70 for next 9 days is correct though

my estimate would be around $100 from 300MH/s (if running 24/7 until end of june)
mewantsbitcoins
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May 27, 2011, 07:01:25 PM
 #31

When mining earnings are about equal to power costs, I have been developing a plan to rectify the situation. If you can't increase your mining production, you should decrease your power costs. "But how can you do that?" you might ask, quizzically, turning your head sideways like a confused little precious puppy. The solution is in converting computer heat to power. I have created a system of heatsinks that directs all of my heat to a small turbine filled with methanol. Why methanol? Because it has a boiling point of 65 degrees Celsius, silly goose, which is a bit below the temperature of my video cards. The heat boils the methanol and the gas drives the turbine, which turns an electricity generator (and also is used to rotate a foot massager).

It's not very efficient, but that's where this plan gets better. I can drastically increase the money I get from power generation by directing the methanol vapors to my neighbor, who is a huge jerk who keeps birds in his apartment and lets them fly out his window as they please. The methanol will probably cause him to faint, and then I can take his birds and eat them. This will save me the $20 per month that I normally spend on dead birds, not to mention my normal $12 foot massage budget. This system might not work for you guys, so you'll have to find what works most efficiently for you. Go hog wild. Be creative. Have fun. For example, you might use cats instead of birds. The possibilities here are endless.

Or you could just use the heat to distill ethanol, and give that to hobos in exchange for whatever dead birds they might have found around town. This is a lucrative, untapped market and you've really got to get in early.

Also I have found a lot of large batteries just sitting under the hoods of cars nearby, and these are great for charging at the library, and then carrying home to use to power your computers.

Furthermore, I have found that my apartment is hot enough now that I don't need clothing anymore, so I sold my clothes and now I am a nudist. This has corollary advantages in that sometimes people will actually pay me money to leave from certain places! Don't tell them this, but I was probably going to leave those places anyway because I was getting cold. As a bonus, most bus drivers will let you ride for free if you no longer have pockets and pretend not to understand what they mean when they say "Sir, please pay the bus fare." I offer them one of my car batteries as a gesture of good will, but they never accept it.

This sounds more and more like my life  Grin
newmont
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May 27, 2011, 08:02:47 PM
 #32

>This is a plausible scenario.  What cracks me up is the people who assume the BTC exchange rate will stay the same forever   Look at >the historicals.  It's only going UP.

What cracks ME up is that people think prior performance predicts future results... actually it does not crack me up - it makes me sad...
Chucksta
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May 27, 2011, 08:32:35 PM
 #33

When mining earnings are about equal to power costs, I have been developing a plan to rectify the situation. If you can't increase your mining production, you should decrease your power costs. "But how can you do that?" you might ask, quizzically, turning your head sideways like a confused little precious puppy. The solution is in converting computer heat to power. I have created a system of heatsinks that directs all of my heat to a small turbine filled with methanol. Why methanol? Because it has a boiling point of 65 degrees Celsius, silly goose, which is a bit below the temperature of my video cards. The heat boils the methanol and the gas drives the turbine, which turns an electricity generator (and also is used to rotate a foot massager).

It's not very efficient, but that's where this plan gets better. I can drastically increase the money I get from power generation by directing the methanol vapors to my neighbor, who is a huge jerk who keeps birds in his apartment and lets them fly out his window as they please. The methanol will probably cause him to faint, and then I can take his birds and eat them. This will save me the $20 per month that I normally spend on dead birds, not to mention my normal $12 foot massage budget. This system might not work for you guys, so you'll have to find what works most efficiently for you. Go hog wild. Be creative. Have fun. For example, you might use cats instead of birds. The possibilities here are endless.

Or you could just use the heat to distill ethanol, and give that to hobos in exchange for whatever dead birds they might have found around town. This is a lucrative, untapped market and you've really got to get in early.

Also I have found a lot of large batteries just sitting under the hoods of cars nearby, and these are great for charging at the library, and then carrying home to use to power your computers.

Furthermore, I have found that my apartment is hot enough now that I don't need clothing anymore, so I sold my clothes and now I am a nudist. This has corollary advantages in that sometimes people will actually pay me money to leave from certain places! Don't tell them this, but I was probably going to leave those places anyway because I was getting cold. As a bonus, most bus drivers will let you ride for free if you no longer have pockets and pretend not to understand what they mean when they say "Sir, please pay the bus fare." I offer them one of my car batteries as a gesture of good will, but they never accept it.

LOL, love it... nice bit of joviality Smiley
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May 27, 2011, 08:33:27 PM
 #34

>This is a plausible scenario.  What cracks me up is the people who assume the BTC exchange rate will stay the same forever   Look at >the historicals.  It's only going UP.

What cracks ME up is that people think prior performance predicts future results... actually it does not crack me up - it makes me sad...
Right, because the USD is on the fast track to recovery and isn't losing valuation anymore Roll Eyes

Mousepotato
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May 27, 2011, 08:57:47 PM
 #35

...I have created a system of heatsinks that directs all of my heat to a small turbine filled with methanol....

You should have put up some photovoltaic panels, 2 or 3 of 600 W each would probably do the trick, and run your computer off of it.
During the 25 years lifetime you can earn a lot of money. First digging for the last remaining BTCs, then earning your transaction fees.

Please elaborate on that and show us the calculation of how profitable it will be  Tongue
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May 27, 2011, 09:02:26 PM
 #36

i'm just waiting on the bounty for the cost effective FPGA miner to come through, that would possibly change some things
I thought the ATI cards already are quite effective with their stream processors.
An FPGA needs to be developed, and will only be produced in small quantities, making production costs higher.
I don't immediately see the added advantage over GPUs.
rograz
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May 27, 2011, 09:14:58 PM
 #37

If anything i'd worry more about "hobbyist" miners making it impossible for truly large scale and professional mining (as long as it's GPU based) to be profitable.  
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May 27, 2011, 09:21:40 PM
 #38

If anything i'd worry more about "hobbyist" miners making it impossible for truly large scale and professional mining (as long as it's GPU based) to be profitable. 
That's a stupid statement
serious miners .. large scale are just that large
what a hobbyist does,  does not even count on the large scale
I'm a hobbyist My fraction of a coin don't mean SHIT
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May 27, 2011, 09:34:31 PM
 #39

I'm a hobbyist My fraction of a coin don't mean SHIT

For you it may not but for others it will, some ppl will mine cause they believe in the project, other will mine for "fun", other might mine cause they like the extra fan noise or want hot air blowing on their feet. Just cause you wont mine when it get's to that stage doesn't mean that other wont. You truly believe every person who is running F@H for example is doing it because they want to try and help out cure world disease?

If I wanted to get into professional mining I would be truly terrified by everyone who has free power, idealists simply supporting the project, ppl who considers their hardware "free" or wouldn't mind mining as long as there is a profit no matter how small. And let's not forget about all the additional costs involved when someone has to take their operation out of their mom's basement into the real world.


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May 27, 2011, 09:39:58 PM
 #40

No.

300MH/s = .67BTC/day
= $5.70/day
= $171/month

And anyone with that kind of MH/s is probably using no more than 250w of electricity, so 180kwh/month, or about $18 more in electricity per month.  Well, if you get decent rates on electricity, anyway.  $72/month at most though.

Mining is far from being unprofitable.  When difficulty hits 4M, then we'll talk about it being unprofitable for a good portion of hobbyist miners.

Math is hard.
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