[POLL] How will Pirateat40's debt repayment unfold?

[dank]

Can someone enlighten me?  Did the beloved Pirateat40 run with the money?

[1713455512]

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[1713455512]

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[peasant]

I don't expect we will have any news until Tuesday.

[BobbyJo]

The way things are going, it wouldnt suprise me if Pirate bought up his own debt for 30% face value and then repayed it all (to himself).

[peasant]

It's a good way to eliminate a lot of his debt. If he pays everyone else back also it was a great way to spin all the negative Ponzi team vibes in his favor.  As long as it's done before Mikes bet is complete. That would be epic.

[finkleshnorts]

It seems to me that it's pretty much all over.

[unclescrooge]

See you tomorrow

[finkleshnorts]

See you tomorrow

Things like that have been said for over a week. In my book it's over until something new happens.

[imsaguy]

In my book it's over until something new happens.

then by that definition, it was never actually over.

[ElectricMucus]

In my book it's over until something new happens.

then by that definition, it will never be actually over.

FTFY

[imsaguy]

In my book it's over until something new happens.

then by that definition, it will never be actually over.

FTFY

It depends on which scenario a person is referring to.

[CoinCidental]

i think he has already defaulted if the latest statement says he doesnt have the coins to return  now and doesnt know when he is likely to have them so will not be giving any further  timeframes or dates

[SysRun]

He most definitely already defaulted, but as far as repayment goes, I voted he will not be able to pay... ever.

1. Compound interest

2. The funds he's moving around are not currently in BTC. Unless he has a fixed option price for buying ~500k BTC he'll be driving the price up exponentially if he attempts to buy.

3. Knowing this, those day traders that are out there in anticipation are holding on to their BTC so they can be right at the top of the wave. this makes a higher peak.

4. This one is not related to the others, but what if he's a psychopath? This is a defining characteristic of Madoff. Confidence men are all about saying how they have close friends and they take time to make others feel warm and fuzzy. I doubt this is the case, but once bitten twice shy, right? I only know the guy from text posts on the internet.

[gene]

How will Pirateat40's debt repayment unfold?

As predicted by several people here, the scam didn't just end with the collapse of the ponzi (more than 2 weeks ago) but other low-grade scams to fleece even greater fools.

It was also accompanied by a few side-shows, courtesy of mentally-diminished shills, delusional victims, and infantile wagers to demonstrate who will "put their money where their mouths are."

The bitcoin community deserves nothing less.

[grue]

1. set up ponzi
2. get tons of suckers
3. once it's on the verge of collapse, announce it's going to payout, "soon"
4. don't payout on time
5. everyone panics, sells their accounts at <50% value
6. pirate sets up puppet accounts and scoops them up
8. now pirate's obligations are < 50%, so he will have enough money to payout to the puppet accounts
9. technically, he still paid out
10. he also gets tons of $$$ from various bets because the ponzi default

[guruvan]

The amount of USD he would need to purchase the balance of the coin he needs to repay is not huge. Even the total amount of coin needed calculated in USD is not a very large amount of USD. (even if you calculate the real prices with slippage)

A few million dollars isn't really that much money. Given the potential future value of the coin he does hold, I'm fairly confident in his borrowing ability, and therefore his ability to come up with the coin. I'm still pretty bullish on pirate repaying.

I've had orders on the GLBSE book for various PPT issues, on both the bid & ask sides, and have seen very little movement, or volume. Pirate is not purchasing his own debt at a discount in any significant way AFAICT. People suggesting he's doing this have clearly not researched what they're saying.

[Dalkore]

The amount of USD he would need to purchase the balance of the coin he needs to repay is not huge. Even the total amount of coin needed calculated in USD is not a very large amount of USD. (even if you calculate the real prices with slippage)

A few million dollars isn't really that much money. Given the potential future value of the coin he does hold, I'm fairly confident in his borrowing ability, and therefore his ability to come up with the coin. I'm still pretty bullish on pirate repaying.

I've had orders on the GLBSE book for various PPT issues, on both the bid & ask sides, and have seen very little movement, or volume. Pirate is not purchasing his own debt at a discount in any significant way AFAICT. People suggesting he's doing this have clearly not researched what they're saying.

Thank you for this assessment.  One of the better opinions in this debate giving an alternative way to look at it.  Kudos 

[muyuu]

I've had orders on the GLBSE book for various PPT issues, on both the bid & ask sides, and have seen very little movement, or volume. Pirate is not purchasing his own debt at a discount in any significant way AFAICT. People suggesting he's doing this have clearly not researched what they're saying.

He wouldn't need to be impatient about that. Every day his debt is worth less, that does actually beat the interest he owes. If Vandroiy wins his bet, the debt is going to plummet and then he should be able to buy a good chunk of it.

[bitlane]

I would love to lose a 5000 BTC bet in order to pull off a Scam worth 500,000 BTC.

[muyuu]

I would love to lose a 5000 BTC bet in order to pull off a Scam worth 500,000 BTC.

Makes sense though. By losing a 5000 BTC bet, his creditors will think he's definitely not going to pay and his debt price will plummet possibly below original deposits even.

This would send your ass to jail IRL, but in anonymous Bitcoin Wild West I can see him pulling it off.

[finkleshnorts]

Feel free to change your vote.