If Greece defaults

[dinofelis]

But Greece already defaulted partially.  How do you call getting half of your debts wavered away ?

Hehe, indeed. It happened before, and it will happen again. Just take a hard look at the numbers -- there is no way in hell that Greece can repay its debts.

Almost NO state ever pays back its debts.  In fact, almost every state debt is just a Ponzi scheme, paying back former loans with even bigger new loans.  The only thing that varies is the ratio of the total amount of debt and the economic activity.  In case of strong economic growth and small deficit, the relative debt to the GDP can decrease.  But very rarely the absolute debt decreases.

Japan too, has no intentions ever to pay back its debt.  But as long as creditors are willing to believe that THEIR loan will be paid back because the state at hand will find a next bigger fool creditor (exactly as in a Ponzi), they will be willing to give out new loans.

What happened to Greece was simply that the belief that the Greek gouvernment would be able to find next bigger fools was gone.

This could in fact happen to any state playing the eternal debt Ponzi scheme.  Of course for a state like Germany with only 65% debt and almost no deficit, there's little chance that they won't find a next bigger fool creditor for the moment, so it is pretty safe to bet on giving them a loan.  For a state like Greece, with more than 150% debt and 12% deficit, that was over the limit of the belief of a next bigger fool.  That's what got them in this mess.

But in fact, Greek debt isn't supposed to be paid back.  Just to be replaced with eternal new loans.  As most state debts in the world.

Until the Ponzi collapses.

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[tyz]

This thesis is far-fetched. Why should the Greek government make the country conditional on the Russian national bank?

It's not only Goldman Sucks, it's all taxpayers in the whole European Union. The pensioners would go through much harder times if Greece pays their pensions in drachmas. It will be tough for drivers, too. The oil companies will not accept drachmas...

The Drachma will at least have some value. Anyway, if the Drachma experiment fails, the Greek government will make the Russian Ruble as the national currency and make the pension payments in Ruble. Also, most of the Greek oil imports come from Russia. They will be having no issues, if the Greeks pay them with Rubles instead of Euros.

[cellard]

It's not only Goldman Sucks, it's all taxpayers in the whole European Union. The pensioners would go through much harder times if Greece pays their pensions in drachmas. It will be tough for drivers, too. The oil companies will not accept drachmas...

The Drachma will at least have some value. Anyway, if the Drachma experiment fails, the Greek government will make the Russian Ruble as the national currency and make the pension payments in Ruble. Also, most of the Greek oil imports come from Russia. They will be having no issues, if the Greeks pay them with Rubles instead of Euros.

As I understand it Greeks are very proud, I doubt they would switch currencies and (so obviously) be beholden to another power. At this point I don't believe they will default- the misguided idealogy of the EU seems likely to prevail. But what do I know? I'm just a guy on the internet

The scenareo is very open right now. Varou is pushing these guys to the limit and they are extremely pissed out. I don't get how he managed to get those 3.000 million more from the ECB. Its only a matter of time they get feed up and Greece leaves.

[stallion]

Do some good dear Greeks, buy some bitcoins!

They will buy Bitcoins, if you could guarentee them that the Bitcoin exchange rates will not got down by 20% or 30% all of a sudden (in less than a week's duration). Right now, Bitcoin is a very volatile currency, with highly unstable exchange rates. So obviously, people will go after safer options, be it the United States Treasury Bonds, or the American Gold Eagle coins.

I know what you mean it was only to make it less tragic...
 

Because it is, for them, a very tough time.

i agree but i guess they will make it through i dont knowmuch about there situation
but we can only hope for the best

[bryant.coleman]

This thesis is far-fetched. Why should the Greek government make the country conditional on the Russian national bank?

Because there are few other options. If Greece is kicked out of the Euro Zone, then they can't use Euro, and the option of using other currencies such as the UKP and USD are also not viable, since the US and the UK will not allow that. If they re-introduce the Dachma, then it will quickly lose its value on the Forex market.

[acquafredda]

So the thing is Greeks could wake up Monday morning and banks will be... closed!

This is going to be something.

[V for Varoufakis]

Greece and other countries must kick out gold standard (euro) and adopt keynesian policy. Keynes was genius.

[Searing]

So the thing is Greeks could wake up Monday morning and banks will be... closed!

This is going to be something.

then like all in life they will find out they could have converted to BTC BEFORE monday...thus it is with humans the world over (DOH!)


20/20 hindsight we'd still probably get some Greek BTC action (with whatever $$$ they had left after the gov't washed the EU's into the New greek currency say
at a 50% loss but I'd think after the fact we'd have a lot I mean a lot of enthusiastic greek bitoin'ers after the fact of such a boat missed (ie monday they wake
up banks closed and all the FUD)

imho there would be 'quite the come to bitcoin jesus moment after the fact don't ya know!!!'

(I myself remember my come to bitcoin jesus moment on the perils of pre-ordering ASIC machines...shudder)

wisdom ouch it hurts!

[bryant.coleman]

So the thing is Greeks could wake up Monday morning and banks will be... closed!

Doesn't matter. Almost everyone have withdrawn their savings (in the form of €500 notes) from the Greek banks (and very few Greeks are having any savings at all). Once bitten, twice shy. People have learnt the lesson from the Cyprus haircut. They are never going to trust the bankers with their hard earned money again.

http://www.businessinsider.com/greeks-withdrawing-cash-from-banks-as-eurozone-exit-looms-2015-6

[yayayo]

So the thing is Greeks could wake up Monday morning and banks will be... closed!

Doesn't matter. Almost everyone have withdrawn their savings (in the form of €500 notes) from the Greek banks (and very few Greeks are having any savings at all). Once bitten, twice shy. People have learnt the lesson from the Cyprus haircut. They are never going to trust the bankers with their hard earned money again.

http://www.businessinsider.com/greeks-withdrawing-cash-from-banks-as-eurozone-exit-looms-2015-6

The current bank run in Greece is effectively financed via abuse of the emergency liquidity program of the ECB, which is scandalous but explains why the Greek government is delaying negotiations.

I don't think that a bank closure would not matter. I think even if all savings have been withdrawn, it would still have serious economic consequences esp. for internationally operating companies in Greece. If there are capital controls, companies will have a hard time to do business.

ya.ya.yo!

[aso118]

Doesn't matter. Almost everyone have withdrawn their savings (in the form of €500 notes) from the Greek banks (and very few Greeks are having any savings at all). Once bitten, twice shy. People have learnt the lesson from the Cyprus haircut. They are never going to trust the bankers with their hard earned money again.
http://www.businessinsider.com/greeks-withdrawing-cash-from-banks-as-eurozone-exit-looms-2015-6

They probably will be hit with additional taxes to fund the Greek government's follies, in any case.
Even if they manage to withdraw their money in the form of Euros, in case of a Grexit, they may have to exchange Euros for Drachmas or a new currency. The government might rip them off using the exchange rate.

[GreenStox]

I was watching TV and it is now imminent, and probably inevitable that the GREXIT will happen, greece will default and probably the bank dominoes will fall down 1 by one.

Then the house of cards phony economy with it. When does the debt come due in Thursday?

[manselr]

Greece is has been for long a long time now too far over indebted to scammer lenders that demand that THEY run the county. This is the total theme of the troika. Takeover by financial and economic means. Asphyxiation by debt upon debt. They should default on the debt as soon as possible, start printing Drachmas, and being creating jobs and rebuilding its economy, and say goodbye to their bureaucrat bosses.

[yayayo]

Greece is has been for long a long time now too far over indebted to scammer lenders that demand that THEY run the county. This is the total theme of the troika. Takeover by financial and economic means. Asphyxiation by debt upon debt. They should default on the debt as soon as possible, start printing Drachmas, and being creating jobs and rebuilding its economy, and say goodbye to their bureaucrat bosses.

Greece is indebted, because it spent more money than it could afford. Greece used forged statistics to gain access to the EU, while in fact the country did not fulfill the economic stability criteria starting from day one. Greece always had a living standard below most other European countries before gaining access to EU-funding, because Greece has a totally inefficient bureaucracy, high levels of corruption, and a socialist "work ethic".

So it's pretty clear that Greece should leave the Eurozone, because it should never have become a member in the first place. Of course the Greek people do not want that, because it would cut off their permanent life support provided from taxpayers in more productive countries.

ya.ya.yo!

[bryant.coleman]

Greece always had a living standard below most other European countries before gaining access to EU-funding, because Greece has a totally inefficient bureaucracy, high levels of corruption, and a socialist "work ethic".

You are generalizing things. For sure the living standards in Greece were lower than that in countries such as Germany and France, but it was much better when compared to the same in Bulgaria or Romania. Greece played its part, in subsidizing the entry of the Eastern European nations, such as Poland and Romania in to the EU. And Greece is not the only corrupt nation in the Europe. The same can be said about almost all the Eastern European countries.

[JackH]

Eurogroup meeting is over

The eurogroup meeting has ended, after barely an hour.

That strongly suggests that very little progress has been made on the latest Greek proposals; and that means EU leaders won’t be in a position to sign off a deal at tonight’s summit.

Another nail to the coffin of Greece. This just happened 3 min ago.

[acquafredda]

Yes, still a lot of uncertainty.
Apparently the Eu is ok with Tsipras's plan but they want more time.

Such a mess...

[GreenStox]

Takeover by financial and economic means. Asphyxiation by debt upon debt. They should default on the debt as soon as possible, start printing Drachmas, and being creating jobs and rebuilding its economy, and say goodbye to their bureaucrat bosses.

I`m not sure if you exit from 1 puddle you want to enter in the next.

The money printing is the whole problem that made them indebted. Switching currency and doing the thing over again, i`m not sure it would be wise.

[moneyflow]

Eurogroup meeting is over

The eurogroup meeting has ended, after barely an hour.

That strongly suggests that very little progress has been made on the latest Greek proposals; and that means EU leaders won’t be in a position to sign off a deal at tonight’s summit.

Another nail to the coffin of Greece. This just happened 3 min ago.

Isn't that the same story all the time, these guys get together but never get to a point where something conclusive had been met , if something effective is not decided Greece will soon be into more trouble and this could mean more unemployment and the countries economy will take even more timre to recover than the current state which Greece is in.

[AtheistAKASaneBrain]

Takeover by financial and economic means. Asphyxiation by debt upon debt. They should default on the debt as soon as possible, start printing Drachmas, and being creating jobs and rebuilding its economy, and say goodbye to their bureaucrat bosses.

I`m not sure if you exit from 1 puddle you want to enter in the next.

The money printing is the whole problem that made them indebted. Switching currency and doing the thing over again, i`m not sure it would be wise.

Obviously the ideal thing to do would be to start using a cryptocurrency to not end up in the same trap again, but that's expecting to much from the greeks and in general any goverment. We are way too ahead of the curve. The governments are not going to adopt Bitcoin because that would constitute losing a lot of control over their citizen's money (even tho the privacy in bitcoin kinda sucks unless you know your ways around it)