Bitcoin Forum
April 05, 2020, 11:34:00 AM *
News: Latest Bitcoin Core release: 0.19.1 [Torrent]
 
   Home   Help Search Login Register More  
Pages: « 1 [2]  All
  Print  
Author Topic: What do you base your speculation on?  (Read 2661 times)
bitcoinBull
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 826
Merit: 1000


rippleFanatic


View Profile
September 10, 2012, 06:13:06 PM
 #21

It beats the market in the time period that I test in, that is my fitness criteria. Even despite spotty execution I have more BTC than I started with every month.

What time range for holding periods does your model calculate?

I'm not quite sure what you are asking. In order to follow the model I would be resetting orders with each candle. As a new candle comes in the curves are recalculated and converged, risk levels are optimized and a new set of orders are placed.

I have found it to be fruitless to issue any kind of public report from the model because the output doesn't really mean anything unless you are trading the model rigorously. There is no set 'holding period'. Candles come in according to how fast the market is trading according to volume. Right now I am using candles of a constant amount of volume, about 14k BTC.

Ah, well that leads to my follow-up question: do you use market orders or limit orders?

College of Bucking Bulls Knowledge
1586086440
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1586086440

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1586086440
Reply with quote  #2

1586086440
Report to moderator
1586086440
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1586086440

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1586086440
Reply with quote  #2

1586086440
Report to moderator
1586086440
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1586086440

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1586086440
Reply with quote  #2

1586086440
Report to moderator
AWARD-WINNING
CRYPTO CASINO
ASKGAMBLERS
PLAYERS CHOICE 2019
PROUD
PARTNER OF
1500+
GAMES
2 MIN
CASH-OUTS
24/7
SUPPORT
100s OF
FREE SPINS
PLAY NOW
Advertised sites are not endorsed by the Bitcoin Forum. They may be unsafe, untrustworthy, or illegal in your jurisdiction. Advertise here.
1586086440
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1586086440

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1586086440
Reply with quote  #2

1586086440
Report to moderator
1586086440
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1586086440

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1586086440
Reply with quote  #2

1586086440
Report to moderator
1586086440
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1586086440

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1586086440
Reply with quote  #2

1586086440
Report to moderator
Dansker
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 740
Merit: 500


Hello world!


View Profile
September 10, 2012, 06:19:33 PM
 #22

I was thinking that press coverage, social media buzz and google search statistics would feature prominently with all of you as sources.

Is this not so?

labestiol
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 434
Merit: 250


View Profile
September 10, 2012, 06:35:20 PM
 #23

Is the fixed volume candle much more effective than fixed time candle ?
I had never thought about this idea of fixed volume candle, but it seems to make a lot of sense

1BestioLC7YBVh8Q5LfH6RYURD6MrpP8y6
phelix
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1708
Merit: 1005


nmc:id/phelix


View Profile
September 11, 2012, 07:46:40 PM
 #24

Is the fixed volume candle much more effective than fixed time candle ?
I had never thought about this idea of fixed volume candle, but it seems to make a lot of sense

I have tried fixed time, fixed volume, and even fixed volatility candles. Fixed volume seems to work the best.

The idea actually comes from Whitehead's Process Philosophy. Time is probably not what we think it is.

very interesting. do you happen to have a chart or link with a fixed volume bitcoin chart?

blockchained.com ■ bitcointalk top posts
Chalkbot
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 894
Merit: 1000



View Profile
September 12, 2012, 02:54:21 AM
 #25

It's obviously driven primarily by the price of a shave and a haircut:




Two bit(coin)s!
lebing
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1288
Merit: 1000

Enabling the maximal migration


View Profile
September 12, 2012, 03:44:51 AM
 #26

This thread delivers  Grin

Bro, do you even blockchain?
-E Voorhees
evolve
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 700
Merit: 500


daytrader/superhero


View Profile
September 12, 2012, 04:03:17 AM
 #27

Trending.

First off, I wont jump in if the market is too flat. You can make money off the minor swings in a flat market, but you risk getting caught with your pants down because it could trend in either direction quickly. This may mean staying out of the market for a couple weeks until a trend forms.

When the price starts trending upward heavily, I find a comfortable entry point as close to the bottom of the trends trading range as possible. This takes a lot of chart watching, and a little bit of luck. I define my exit points right away. I plan the top price I want to sell at (generally a little above the current trade range) and my low price to minimize losses in case of a crash (generally 25% of my total unrealized gains).

If I'm not confident in the market, I stay out, and most importantly, I don't trade on emotion. I stick to my strategy.
genuise
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 379
Merit: 250


View Profile WWW
September 12, 2012, 10:41:34 AM
 #28

Is the fixed volume candle much more effective than fixed time candle ?
I had never thought about this idea of fixed volume candle, but it seems to make a lot of sense

I have tried fixed time, fixed volume, and even fixed volatility candles. Fixed volume seems to work the best.

The idea actually comes from Whitehead's Process Philosophy. Time is probably not what we think it is.

very interesting. do you happen to have a chart or link with a fixed volume bitcoin chart?

Can you check bitcoin-analytics.com charts which are calculated for predefined volumes, are those charts close to what you were thinkning about?

Endgame
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 412
Merit: 250



View Profile
September 12, 2012, 01:14:46 PM
 #29



My palantir never lies
genuise
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 379
Merit: 250


View Profile WWW
September 12, 2012, 09:38:51 PM
 #30

Is the fixed volume candle much more effective than fixed time candle ?
I had never thought about this idea of fixed volume candle, but it seems to make a lot of sense

I have tried fixed time, fixed volume, and even fixed volatility candles. Fixed volume seems to work the best.

The idea actually comes from Whitehead's Process Philosophy. Time is probably not what we think it is.

very interesting. do you happen to have a chart or link with a fixed volume bitcoin chart?

Can you check bitcoin-analytics.com charts which are calculated for predefined volumes, are those charts close to what you were thinkning about?

Not really, no.

None of that gives you a probability distribution for price, and provides no real guidance for how to set your personal risk levels. I know how much to risk because I solve for it, continually. As new data comes in the curves change and there is a whole new solution set to search through, it is adaptable to the market and my own personal market positions. This gives me a personal perspective of the market that nobody else has and that is what provides an edge. As long as everyone looks at the same charts that information gets priced into the market quickly and can make it difficult to pull in profits. Few have managed to train themselves to recognize useful patterns in real time, but this is getting harder to do, even for the best of them, because of the algos that do the same thing. Ultimately, it's going to be a war with the machines.

I can understand that what you are talking is far from what felix was asking. I believe his question was not about probablities but about charts calculated for fixed volumes, that is why I asked my question.

Pages: « 1 [2]  All
  Print  
 
Jump to:  

Sponsored by , a Bitcoin-accepting VPN.
Powered by MySQL Powered by PHP Powered by SMF 1.1.19 | SMF © 2006-2009, Simple Machines Valid XHTML 1.0! Valid CSS!