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Author Topic: [CLOSED] S.DICE - SatoshiDICE 100% Dividend-Paying Asset on MPEx  (Read 315727 times)
GeoRW
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March 05, 2013, 10:22:54 AM
 #1001

So the bank of Satoshi Dice cannot be broken like the one in Monte Carlo?  
I'd though of starting a casino site but was terrified of the possibility of going bust.
I guess if you have deep enough pockets you can weather the unlucky streaks and always
come out ahead at the end of the month. True?

The bank can always be broken given enough of a statistical anomaly but as the volume becomes so great the probability of a consecutive number of days ending up losing goes down dramatically (i.e. 30 days). So SD's deep pockets in relation to the maximum bet help keep the casino afloat, but the betting volume is what assures consistent profitability. It seems to me as though SD has both the pockets and the volume to never have a losing month from now on (in relation to their maximum bet), so I am making that prediction now.

So far in March, SD is around 2000 BTC in loss Wink There's always possibility that someone will find some exploit and make SD go bust, especially some competitor. It's a risky business - gambling.
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March 05, 2013, 10:24:14 AM
 #1002

All consultation fees are worth the price period. The volume of SD assures that it is basically impossible for a month to be losing. That's how statistics works. I appreciate that statistic being kept as I predict no months from now on will ever be losing. Bam! Thanks Mr. Voorhees.

So the bank of Satoshi Dice cannot be broken like the one in Monte Carlo? 
I'd though of starting a casino site but was terrified of the possibility of going bust.
I guess if you have deep enough pockets you can weather the unlucky streaks and always
come out ahead at the end of the month. True?
It's possible and likely that there will be days where the house loses, but over a month it's practically impossible given their volume.
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March 05, 2013, 10:55:21 AM
 #1003

All consultation fees are worth the price period. The volume of SD assures that it is basically impossible for a month to be losing. That's how statistics works. I appreciate that statistic being kept as I predict no months from now on will ever be losing. Bam! Thanks Mr. Voorhees.

So the bank of Satoshi Dice cannot be broken like the one in Monte Carlo? 
I'd though of starting a casino site but was terrified of the possibility of going bust.
I guess if you have deep enough pockets you can weather the unlucky streaks and always
come out ahead at the end of the month. True?
It's possible and likely that there will be days where the house loses, but over a month it's practically impossible given their volume.

That's wrong.

Take a look at the maximum that can be won on a single bet, then look at the expected profits in a month.  Then realise that loads of volume in small bets can have their profit wiped out by a few winning large bets - and realise that you're just totally wrong.

In fact it's already HAD a losing month.

Risk of Ruin can be reduced to zero by controlling max bet sizes based on backing capital - but you can't remove the risk of losing months without capping max bets at a level which would lose the best customers.  And of course the possibility of losing months also means the possibility of months where you win well above expectation.

If you STILL aren't convinced then look at the results for the month that just ended.  Now look at how far ABOVE expectation S.DICE did.  Now try to think of a good reason why it can finish that much above expectation but not that much below expectation given a small house margin and fair games (hint: there's no such reason).

All of you talking about junk like odds of X losing days in a row are totally ignoring the very high odds on some wagers and the massive range of bet sizes available.  There'll be more losing months.  There'll also be more months of winning well above expectation.  And investors need to take both in their stride.
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March 05, 2013, 12:53:15 PM
 #1004

Someone still selling shares at low 0.005s when people put up asks?

I picked up another 1100 shares or so @ 0.0050999 this morning.   Smiley
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March 05, 2013, 02:38:43 PM
 #1005


If you STILL aren't convinced then look at the results for the month that just ended.  Now look at how far ABOVE expectation S.DICE did.  Now try to think of a good reason why it can finish that much above expectation but not that much below expectation given a small house margin and fair games (hint: there's no such reason).


Exactly.
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March 05, 2013, 07:13:15 PM
 #1006

That's wrong.

Take a look at the maximum that can be won on a single bet, then look at the expected profits in a month.  Then realise that loads of volume in small bets can have their profit wiped out by a few winning large bets - and realise that you're just totally wrong.

In fact it's already HAD a losing month.

Risk of Ruin can be reduced to zero by controlling max bet sizes based on backing capital - but you can't remove the risk of losing months without capping max bets at a level which would lose the best customers.  And of course the possibility of losing months also means the possibility of months where you win well above expectation.

If you STILL aren't convinced then look at the results for the month that just ended.  Now look at how far ABOVE expectation S.DICE did.  Now try to think of a good reason why it can finish that much above expectation but not that much below expectation given a small house margin and fair games (hint: there's no such reason).

All of you talking about junk like odds of X losing days in a row are totally ignoring the very high odds on some wagers and the massive range of bet sizes available.  There'll be more losing months.  There'll also be more months of winning well above expectation.  And investors need to take both in their stride.

He has a point, the site could do under ER just as much as it could do over ER. It won't go bankrupt, that's one thing, but it certainly can have loser months.

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March 05, 2013, 07:40:05 PM
 #1007

also questionable if S.DICE will grow as fast as Bitcoin  Huh

Shares value might drop well under IPO value soon (but still outperform 99% of all fiat-denominated assets out there).

https://localbitcoins.com/?ch=80k | BTC: 1LJvmd1iLi199eY7EVKtNQRW3LqZi8ZmmB
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March 05, 2013, 08:36:13 PM
 #1008


Take a look at the maximum that can be won on a single bet, then look at the expected profits in a month.  Then realise that loads of volume in small bets can have their profit wiped out by a few winning large bets - and realise that you're just totally wrong.

In fact it's already HAD a losing month.

Risk of Ruin can be reduced to zero by controlling max bet sizes based on backing capital - but you can't remove the risk of losing months without capping max bets at a level which would lose the best customers.  And of course the possibility of losing months also means the possibility of months where you win well above expectation.

If you STILL aren't convinced then look at the results for the month that just ended.  Now look at how far ABOVE expectation S.DICE did.  Now try to think of a good reason why it can finish that much above expectation but not that much below expectation given a small house margin and fair games (hint: there's no such reason).

All of you talking about junk like odds of X losing days in a row are totally ignoring the very high odds on some wagers and the massive range of bet sizes available.  There'll be more losing months.  There'll also be more months of winning well above expectation.  And investors need to take both in their stride.

Am I wrong or is this not just Gaming Theory 101?
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March 06, 2013, 01:41:29 AM
 #1009

If you STILL aren't convinced then look at the results for the month that just ended.  Now look at how far ABOVE expectation S.DICE did.  Now try to think of a good reason why it can finish that much above expectation but not that much below expectation given a small house margin and fair games (hint: there's no such reason).

You're right, except that you're ignoring human nature.  A lot of people if they win big will keep playing, hoping to win even more.  But when they lose big maybe they have no more funds to keep playing with.  If you look at last month's graph for instance you'll see that the site was almost 4000 BTC below expected profit on Feb 3rd, presumably mostly due to the big player having some big wins.  The big player then continued to play and ended up losing those winnings and more, until he finally gave up on Feb 5th.

tl;dr it's hard to quit when you're ahead; it's easy to quit when you're busto

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March 06, 2013, 02:16:58 AM
 #1010

If you STILL aren't convinced then look at the results for the month that just ended.  Now look at how far ABOVE expectation S.DICE did.  Now try to think of a good reason why it can finish that much above expectation but not that much below expectation given a small house margin and fair games (hint: there's no such reason).

You're right, except that you're ignoring human nature.  A lot of people if they win big will keep playing, hoping to win even more.  But when they lose big maybe they have no more funds to keep playing with.  If you look at last month's graph for instance you'll see that the site was almost 4000 BTC below expected profit on Feb 3rd, presumably mostly due to the big player having some big wins.  The big player then continued to play and ended up losing those winnings and more, until he finally gave up on Feb 5th.

tl;dr it's hard to quit when you're ahead; it's easy to quit when you're busto

So you're claiming the house running above the expected ROI was due to WINNING players keeping playing?  Would have though it's more likely to be losing players who wouldn't give up until they bust.

Sure - winning players DO often give back a big chunk of a large win: but if they keep even one satishi of their winnings they've NOT contributed to the site's profit and have definitely NOT been responsible for the site running above expectation.  When there's a house edge only LOSING players give profit or can be responsible for the house running above expectation.
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March 06, 2013, 03:31:31 AM
 #1011

So you're claiming the house running above the expected ROI was due to WINNING players keeping playing?  Would have though it's more likely to be losing players who wouldn't give up until they bust.

Well, everyone's a losing player if they play long enough.  In early February the big player who had been responsible for the majority of the site's profits in December and January started off winning, but kept playing until he had lost.  He (like any long-enough term player) is and was an overall losing player, but just happened to have a good run in the first couple of days of February.

That's all.

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March 06, 2013, 08:32:21 AM
 #1012

So you're claiming the house running above the expected ROI was due to WINNING players keeping playing?  Would have though it's more likely to be losing players who wouldn't give up until they bust.

He's right on that score. Some of a casino's best paid staff are the people who get big winners to keep playing / come back if they momentarily left / etc.

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March 06, 2013, 08:55:59 AM
 #1013

Wouldn't the people who keep on playing be reflected in the volume and the 1.9% edge line?
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March 06, 2013, 09:56:16 AM
 #1014

Congratulations, 90% of people who invested in S.DICE barely broke even or made a loss.

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March 06, 2013, 10:05:58 AM
 #1015

Congratulations, 90% of people who invested in S.DICE barely broke even or made a loss.

How do you work that out! The Mpex dividend was 0.00013242 per share, passthroughs 95% of that.

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March 06, 2013, 10:10:40 AM
 #1016

Congratulations, 90% of people who invested in S.DICE barely broke even or made a loss.

How do you work that out! The Mpex dividend was 0.00013242 per share, passthroughs 95% of that.
The current bid on MPEx is 0.00350001. IPO was 0.0032 to 0.0037. I wasn't factoring in dividends, but many people brought it at 0.004s, 0.005s or even 0.008s.

Regardless, looking at USD terms it's not that bad of an investment.

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March 06, 2013, 12:57:34 PM
 #1017

Is the best bid still that low?  Mpex is down...
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March 06, 2013, 01:00:14 PM
 #1018

Congratulations, 90% of people who invested in S.DICE barely broke even or made a loss.

How do you work that out! The Mpex dividend was 0.00013242 per share, passthroughs 95% of that.
The current bid on MPEx is 0.00350001. IPO was 0.0032 to 0.0037.

http://finance.qandas.com/investing/what-is-an-unrealized-profit-and-loss.html
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March 06, 2013, 01:28:47 PM
Last edit: March 06, 2013, 02:30:53 PM by nebulus
 #1019

My suspicion is that MPEX is down so people don't pull money to cash out on the price hike.

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March 06, 2013, 02:46:43 PM
 #1020

My suspicion is that MPEX is down so people don't pull money to cash out on the price hike.

Maybe mpex can ask bitcointalk forum how to run a forum with thousands of database queries and thousands of users and make it so it doesn't go down.

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