[CLOSED] S.DICE - SatoshiDICE 100% Dividend-Paying Asset on MPEx

[FTWbitcoinFTW]

Here's why I think there's been a lack of S.DICE buying pressure:

 A) The general belief that SatoshiDice betting volume in BTC is inversely correlated with the BTC/USD exchange rate. New S.DICE bids became very rare indeed when the BTC/USD price started soaring over $20.

* 3M share was sold at more than $20/BTC

 B) Fear that SatoshiDice will be shut down by some authority and without any warning.

* Like BTC, is very hard to shut down S.Dice. All you need is address to bet !

 C) A lack of news or updates is allowing fear to be the dominant factor guiding trading decisions.

*$500K/month look like a good news/update to me.

The outlook is bright, however. There's strong evidence that betting volume has remained constant when whale action is factored out (many thanks to organofcorti and dooglus for this analysis). Evoorhees is presently working on removing any question about SatoshiDice's legal status, and in the meantime is laying low. When the legal issues are put to rest and evoorhees starts promoting the business again, I think we can expect a big swing in sentiment from negative to positive, and thus a higher and more stable share price.

*March without whales looks like shit
*Legal statut is crystal clear, 13% to mpex, 86% for a "mysterious investor". Erik is just a "worker"
*If march is negative ! Swing there will be but not in the way expected

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[StarenseN]

D) no new bids as very few accounts are created on mpex (1300$ - 30BTC is a pain) > agony ?

[JordanL]

D) no new bids as very few accounts are created on mpex (1300$ - 30BTC is a pain) > agony ?

There are enough passthroughs and brokers by now that this isn't really an issue. I have tried out CoinBR.com (because I try out almost every BTC related service), and they are really top notch. Reasonable fees, great support, and your trades are processed on MPEx immediately. Perfect for smaller traders who want to trade on MPEx but don't want to pay the upfront fee.

[JordanL]

* Like BTC, is very hard to shut down S.Dice. All you need is address to bet !

No, this is not true. Bitcoin is decentralized, you would have to shut down every computer mining to shut it down.

I'm not saying S.Dice would be easy for authorities to shut down, I have no idea really of how the company is structured, but it would not be even close to as hard as it would be to shut down Bitcoin itself. A few people, one company, a few servers, that's all they would have to find to shut down Satoshi Dice. Apples and oranges.

[MPOE-PR]

No, this is not true. Bitcoin is decentralized, you would have to shut down every computer mining to shut it down.

I'm not saying S.Dice would be easy for authorities to shut down, I have no idea really of how the company is structured, but it would not be even close to as hard as it would be to shut down Bitcoin itself. A few people, one company, a few servers, that's all they would have to find to shut down Satoshi Dice. Apples and oranges.

Depends a lot on what their model actually is. I think what the OP means was that something like S.DICE is unstoppable as long as BTC exists.

[dooglus]

*March without whales looks like shit

SD's luck has been horrible in March.  The bet volume is such that the house should be about 2000 BTC up on the month so far, but they're only about 200 BTC up.

[JordanL]

I think what the OP means was that something like S.DICE is unstoppable as long as BTC exists.

If that's correct, then I totally agree. To me his post appeared to be discussing the value of the S.DICE security, so I figured he was referring to Satoshi Dice specifically.

[Choadzilla]

dooglus, thank you for those graphs!!

[zx9r]

SD's luck has been horrible in March.  The bet volume is such that the house should be about 2000 BTC up on the month so far, but they're only about 200 BTC up.

Where can we see the current month graph ?

[Mausini]

SD's luck has been horrible in March.  The bet volume is such that the house should be about 2000 BTC up on the month so far, but they're only about 200 BTC up.

Where can we see the current month graph ?

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=80312.new;topicseen#new

[StarenseN]

So is the fincen report a great news for satoshi dice (btc/btc business)?

[strello]

fincen report?

[FTWbitcoinFTW]

fincen report?

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=154672.0;topicseen

[🏰 TradeFortress 🏰]

So is the fincen report a great news for satoshi dice (btc/btc business)?

I don't see how it affects sdice. sdice is not a "exchanger" or a "money transmitter", or an "administrator".

But under that guidance (IIRC) WinPoker would be an exchanger / money transmitter..

[RationalSpeculator]

What the hell is happening with the sdice valuation? People are just dumping these shares with the end result being that I made since start of the year 300% on my bitcoins and at the same time barely 30% on sdice. To me, this does not make sense. Sdice has - proven- to raise the amount of btc earned and payed out, even while btc goes up dramatically in value. So logically sdice should go up as much as bitcoin goes up (ie the share price not dropping when btc goes up). Is it right to conclude that investors are behaving irrationally today? Or am I missing something?

Great company by the way Erik!

[🏰 TradeFortress 🏰]

What the hell is happening with the sdice valuation? People are just dumping these shares with the end result being that I made since start of the year 300% on my bitcoins and at the same time barely 30% on sdice. To me, this does not make sense. Sdice has - proven- to raise the amount of btc earned and payed out, even while btc goes up dramatically in value. So logically sdice should go up as much as bitcoin goes up (ie the share price not dropping when btc goes up). Is it right to conclude that investors are behaving irrationally today? Or am I missing something?

Great company by the way Erik!

It's quite clear that people are not going to bet $1,000 as frequently as $100. BTC/USD definitely does influence the price of S.DICE, but not 1:1.

1) People may be wanting to cash out their bitcoin earnings and therefore selling their BTC assets
2) Concern over blockchain bloat and possible anti-spamTX actions taken by bitcoind (this is just speculation BTW, it will not actually be a problem)
3) Concern over S.DICE's poor luck in March (less divs too)
4) Large investors needing to liquidate their S.DICE shares (this was what happened last time)
5) BTC/USD exchange rate to some effect

Holding S.DICE assets instead of cold storage bitcoins brings you more risk, and is the risk really worth the returns?

[Bowjob]

What the hell is happening with the sdice valuation? People are just dumping these shares with the end result being that I made since start of the year 300% on my bitcoins and at the same time barely 30% on sdice. To me, this does not make sense. Sdice has - proven- to raise the amount of btc earned and payed out, even while btc goes up dramatically in value. So logically sdice should go up as much as bitcoin goes up (ie the share price not dropping when btc goes up). Is it right to conclude that investors are behaving irrationally today? Or am I missing something?

Great company by the way Erik!

read https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=135760.0

I've seen this coming from a few months ago. Basically holding S.Dice shares and BTC creates a dissonance in your portfolio. I was baffled for a while since as BTC increased, Dice increased as well. I got off at 0.0075 and 0.0062, which was pretty good.

[thoughtfan]

What the hell is happening with the sdice valuation? People are just dumping these shares with the end result being that I made since start of the year 300% on my bitcoins and at the same time barely 30% on sdice. To me, this does not make sense. Sdice has - proven- to raise the amount of btc earned and payed out, even while btc goes up dramatically in value. So logically sdice should go up as much as bitcoin goes up (ie the share price not dropping when btc goes up). Is it right to conclude that investors are behaving irrationally today? Or am I missing something?

Great company by the way Erik!

It's quite clear that people are not going to bet $1,000 as frequently as $100. BTC/USD definitely does influence the price of S.DICE, but not 1:1.

1) People may be wanting to cash out their bitcoin earnings and therefore selling their BTC assets
2) Concern over blockchain bloat and possible anti-spamTX actions taken by bitcoind (this is just speculation BTW, it will not actually be a problem)
3) Concern over S.DICE's poor luck in March (less divs too)
4) Large investors needing to liquidate their S.DICE shares (this was what happened last time)
5) BTC/USD exchange rate to some effect

Holding S.DICE assets instead of cold storage bitcoins brings you more risk, and is the risk really worth the returns?

I would add to this (which may not be entirely independent of the above):

6) Many investors may still be looking at their S.Dice investment in usd terms and if they'd invested near the top of what they would in usd to start with now have a holding far above what they're cofortable with;
7) From the fact of the price never coming near what it was before a few weeks back when a whole new tranche of shares were sold cheap I'd guess there's still a significant number of shares in the hands of those who at the time bought more than they'd intended to long term with the intention of making a quick buck on the way back up who are now holding something that cost them more than they could currently sell it fo (me, me ) ;
8 ) Increase in btc/usd exchange rate meaning taking a hit on the S.Dice price doesn't matter so much given the usd value has gone up so much.

[ThickAsThieves]

How about, SDICE is low because profit is down this month again?

Bitcoin dividends are a large part of asset value.

[Bugpowder]

How about, SDICE is low because profit is down this month again?

Bitcoin dividends are a large part of asset value.

Most bitcoin 'investors' can't see more than 2 days beyond the next payday.