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Author Topic: MoneyPot.com :: The bitcoin gambling wallet  (Read 76767 times)
JackpotRacer
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September 12, 2015, 08:13:33 AM
 #601

As % of house edge. All are estimates.

Small rolls

Before:
MP : Max 50%. Average 49% (estimate)
Dev : Max 50%. Average 49% (estimate)
Investor : 2%

After:
MP : 5%.
Dev : max 50%.
Investor : 45%.

Big rolls

Before:
MP : 1%
Dev : 1%
Investor : 98%

After:
MP : 5%
Dev : Max 50%
Investor : Min 45%.


Medium rolls
Something in between.

As per my understanding.  Cool

thanks a lot for trying to shed some light Smiley

but it doesn' look right to me because the new offer should not have any differences anymore for small, medium and big rolls but sure thing that I could be wrong Smiley

lets see if we get an explanation that will be understood and satisfy all

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September 12, 2015, 08:18:28 AM
 #602

As % of house edge. All are estimates.

Small rolls

Before:
MP : Max 50%. Average 49% (estimate)
Dev : Max 50%. Average 49% (estimate)
Investor : 2%

After:
MP : 5%.
Dev : max 50%.
Investor : 45%.

Big rolls

Before:
MP : 1%
Dev : 1%
Investor : 98%

After:
MP : 5%
Dev : Max 50%
Investor : Min 45%.


Medium rolls
Something in between.

As per my understanding.  Cool

thanks a lot for trying to shed some light Smiley

but it doesn' look right to me because the new offer should not have any differences anymore for small, medium and big rolls but sure thing that I could be wrong Smiley

lets see if we get an explanation that will be understood and satisfy all


Yeah, that estimate he posted goes against Ryan's idea that investors should benefit more on huge rolls than on small. I think something's off with it for that reason.
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September 12, 2015, 08:18:41 AM
 #603

Not really. Well based on the stats it is I guess.

However officially MP's share was much bigger. Officially the share between app owners and MP was 50/50. Therefor officially the app devs should get much less than 61%. So the app owners get a worse deal based on the stats, but a better deal based on the official MP "rules".

AFAIK, MP gave extra commission to app owners sometimes. And currently MP gives also a better deal to investors (commission-free.) This is why the stats are not really correct.



So basically in the end, I think these new rules are actually better for both the app owners and the investors. And mostly bad for MP.

even more confusing now because now I understand that even it is worse for app owners it is better for app owners

I would like to ask some of the guys who understood the announcement Ryan gave to be so kind and explain it in ELI5 = an example with numbers to really see all the pro and cons for the app owner

Before with the official old rules app owners should get less than 50% (a bit below 40% to my estimation.)

However, because Ryan is a nice guy, he gave app owners extra commission sometimes, see for example this post. So even though app owners should have gotten 35-40%, the actually received commission was 61% based on the stats. This is only because some of the commission, that should go to MP, went to the app owners instead.


So: new rules are better for app owners compared to the old rules. But it seems worse based on stats, because MP gave extra commission to the app owners sometimes.


Is it more clear now? Tongue

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September 12, 2015, 08:22:54 AM
 #604


Yeah, that estimate he posted goes against Ryan's idea that investors should benefit more on huge rolls than on small. I think something's off with it for that reason.

It is still applicable, but not to that extent. Both extremes kind of reduced, that is all. It is still around the same, but with significant changes. Smiley



So: new rules are better for app owners compared to the old rules. But it seems worse based on stats, because MP gave extra commission to the app owners sometimes.

Correct. Cheesy
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September 12, 2015, 08:43:08 AM
 #605

Not really. Well based on the stats it is I guess.

However officially MP's share was much bigger. Officially the share between app owners and MP was 50/50. Therefor officially the app devs should get much less than 61%. So the app owners get a worse deal based on the stats, but a better deal based on the official MP "rules".

AFAIK, MP gave extra commission to app owners sometimes. And currently MP gives also a better deal to investors (commission-free.) This is why the stats are not really correct.



So basically in the end, I think these new rules are actually better for both the app owners and the investors. And mostly bad for MP.

even more confusing now because now I understand that even it is worse for app owners it is better for app owners

I would like to ask some of the guys who understood the announcement Ryan gave to be so kind and explain it in ELI5 = an example with numbers to really see all the pro and cons for the app owner

Before with the official old rules app owners should get less than 50% (a bit below 40% to my estimation.)

However, because Ryan is a nice guy, he gave app owners extra commission sometimes, see for example this post. So even though app owners should have gotten 35-40%, the actually received commission was 61% based on the stats. This is only because some of the commission, that should go to MP, went to the app owners instead.


So: new rules are better for app owners compared to the old rules. But it seems worse based on stats, because MP gave extra commission to the app owners sometimes.


Is it more clear now? Tongue


thanks Nico but it is still not clear enough (at least not for me)

regarding your sample link that should proof that Ryan is a nice guy (and I agree that Ryan is a nice guy) but not in this case and I am sorry to say that but this discussion would need its own thread
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1020726.msg12046313#msg12046313

if we could just leave this sample and stats out and try to get the real picture ( it was a one time and very short thingy)

let me see if I ask ELI5 maybe I get ELI5 answer

my understanding of Ryan's announcement is and please correct me if  I am wrong
1x Kelly is 1% of Bank Roll
half Kelly = 0.5% of Bank Roll

will app owner now get 50% of HE of each 1x Kelly bet of Bank Roll? if yes I ask why Ryan tell us
we recommend apps limit bets to a half kelly for predictable earnings

if my app has always a max of 1x Kelly and I get 50% of HE why should I reduce the max to half Kelly?

as you can see I am still confused and thank all of for your patience to deliver an explanation that all of us will understand (even me)






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September 12, 2015, 08:53:57 AM
 #606

my understanding of Ryan's announcement is and please correct me if  I am wrong
1x Kelly is 1% of Bank Roll
half Kelly = 0.5% of Bank Roll

will app owner now get 50% of HE of each 1x Kelly bet of Bank Roll? if yes I ask why Ryan tell us
we recommend apps limit bets to a half kelly for predictable earnings

if my app has always a max of 1x Kelly and I get 50% of HE why should I reduce the max to half Kelly?

as you can see I am still confused and thank all of for your patience to deliver an explanation that all of us will understand (even me)

When the bets get high enough, investors need an appropriate return for the risk they are taking. So, when it crosses the limit, but it does not meet the criterion, the commission is cut to compensate to make it meet the kelly criterion.
It simply means, you get more % on big bets, but if the bet is big enough and since the investor is taking a higher risk, it will go lower. But I think, it is still higher than what devs used to get in the previous method.
Predictable earnings means flat 50% off edge. For huge bets (a couple of bitcoins), you used to get around 1% before, but I think it should be much higher now. Smiley

Based on my understanding of things.
Thanks Smiley
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September 12, 2015, 09:07:26 AM
 #607

my understanding of Ryan's announcement is and please correct me if  I am wrong
1x Kelly is 1% of Bank Roll
half Kelly = 0.5% of Bank Roll

will app owner now get 50% of HE of each 1x Kelly bet of Bank Roll? if yes I ask why Ryan tell us
we recommend apps limit bets to a half kelly for predictable earnings

if my app has always a max of 1x Kelly and I get 50% of HE why should I reduce the max to half Kelly?

as you can see I am still confused and thank all of for your patience to deliver an explanation that all of us will understand (even me)

When the bets get high enough, investors need an appropriate return for the risk they are taking. So, when it crosses the limit, but it does not meet the criterion, the commission is cut to compensate to make it meet the kelly criterion.
It simply means, you get more % on big bets, but if the bet is big enough and since the investor is taking a higher risk, it will go lower. But I think, it is still higher than what devs used to get in the previous method.
Predictable earnings means flat 50% off edge. For huge bets (a couple of bitcoins), you used to get around 1% before, but I think it should be much higher now. Smiley

Based on my understanding of things.
Thanks Smiley
ndnhc

thanks again but Ryan mentioned 2 things

1x Kelly and half Kelly

actually he added another option that I also did not understand

If apps place a bet that would put investors (after giving the commissions) at greater than 1x kelly risk the investors will give apps a reduced commission to limit themselves to a kelly

anyone mind to explain this in ELI5

thanks

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September 12, 2015, 09:15:28 AM
Last edit: September 12, 2015, 09:32:40 AM by NLNico
 #608

For the bigger picture, just imagine that the commission should have been divided by 50/50 between app and MP with the old rules. This should make you realize already that before you should have gotten less than 50% since investors obviously also get a share. Right? That's all you need to know, to understand why this is a better deal for app owners.






Now the "max profit" thing is something else.

Let's say app's HE to the players is 1.3% and BR is 450. This means max profit on a bet is: 450*1*0.013 = 5.85 BTC based on 1x kelly. Right?

Some examples how much percentage of the HE everyone gets with several bets:

Bet                   App              Investors              MoneyPot             
BTC5.250%90%10%
BTC4.425%67.5%7.5%
BTC3.147%47.7%5.3%
BTC2.925 50%45%5%
BTC1.550%45%5%
BTC0.150%45%5%

Basically, the higher the bet, the more money goes to investors because they can only risk their money based on 1x kelly. This also happened with the old rules, see this older post.

If you, as an app owner, want a 50% of HE guaranteed profit always, you can limit your max bet to 2.925 as shown in this example (if BR is 450 and player HE is 1.3%.) This is based on half kelly:

450*0.5*0.013 = 2.925

So basically, if you always want 50% of HE, you could do: 0.5*bankroll*player_HE = max profit of bet.







Ps, @Ryan, correct me if I have something wrong Tongue And I am not sure how the 10% of MP commission relates to the 1x kelly thing. Most dice-invest sites also don't really have 1x kelly as 1x kelly because of the commission, but idk.

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September 12, 2015, 09:41:53 AM
 #609

For the bigger picture, just imagine that the commission should have been divided by 50/50 between app and MP with the old rules. This should make you realize already that before you should have gotten less than 50% since investors obviously also get a share. Right? That's all you need to know, to understand why this is a better deal for app owners.






Now the "max profit" thing is something else.

Let's say app's HE to the players is 1.3% and BR is 450. This means max profit on a bet is: 450*1*0.013 = 5.85 BTC based on 1x kelly. Right?

Some examples how much percentage of the HE everyone gets with several bets:

Bet                   App              Investors              MoneyPot             
BTC5.250%90%10%
BTC4.425%67.5%7.5%
BTC3.147%47.7%5.3%
BTC2.925 50%45%5%
BTC1.550%45%5%
BTC0.150%45%5%

Basically, the higher the bet, the more money goes to investors because they can only risk their money based on 1x kelly. This also happened with the old rules, see this older post.

If you, as an app owner, want a 50% of HE guaranteed profit always, you can limit your max bet to 2.925 as shown in this example (if BR is 450 and player HE is 1.3%.) This is based on half kelly:

450*0.5*0.013 = 2.925

So basically, if you always want 50% of HE, you could do: 0.5*bankroll*player_HE = max profit of bet.







Ps, @Ryan, correct me if I have something wrong Tongue And I am not sure how the 10% of MP commission relates to the 1x kelly thing. Most dice-invest sites also don't really have 1x kelly as 1x kelly because of the commission, but idk.

could we agree on what is 1x Kelly bet and if the app gets 50% of HE in case of a 1x Kelly bet?

and lets also try to agree what is a greater than 1x Kelly bet?

maybe if one user could explain to me what a 1x Kelly bet is and what a greater than 1x Kelly is?
maybe this could help me to understand it

thanks again

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September 12, 2015, 10:02:01 AM
 #610

Thanks NLNico for taking the time to explain it. I'll try put it in different words for JackpotRacer. But let me prefix it with by saying for his case the new scheme is strictly better. There are no circumstances when he'll get paid less than before.

Bets can be put in three categories:

* Less than 0.5x kelly bets

In the binary-bet case (e.g. dice), this is when someone makes a bet trying to win less than half of the house edge of the bankroll. So with a 3% house edge, if the player is trying to win less than 1.5% of the bankroll.

* 0.5x to 1x kelly bets

In the binary-bet case (e.g. dice), this is when someone makes a bet trying to win between 0.5 and 1  of the house edge of the bankroll. So with a 3% house edge, if the player is trying to win between 1.5% and 3% of the bankroll.

* Greater than 1x kelly bets

In the binary-bet case (e.g. dice), this is when someone makes a bet trying to win between >1 of the bankroll. So with a 3% house edge, if the player is trying to win between >3% of the bankroll.


The commissions for placing each type of these bets vary:
* Less than 0.5x kelly bets

Apps get 50% of the house edge on every bet (regardless of outcome). This is paid by investors.

* 0.5 to 1x kelly bets

Apps get between 50% of the house edge, and 0% of the house edge. This is paid by investors in such a way that keeps them kelly-complaint. By default you can make this type of bet, but it has been requested to have an option in the admin panel to block them. As long as you don't offer a rakeback on these type of bets, accepting them is perfectly safe, though.

* >1 x kelly bets

Apps PAY investors to accept the bet.  (Don't worry, you can't accidentally do this type of bet, it can only be done via a confidential app using an explicitly subsidy argument).

--

We think in general apps should restrict themselves to <= 0.5x kelly bets, where their earnings are very predictable: 50% of the house edge. For promotional purposes they might want to use the other sort of bets, or to satisfy whales, or sell magical bet tokens etc.


While at a glance the investor:app profit split might look worse for app developers, to be clear MoneyPot was taking a 50% profit split on app developers earnings, now it takes 0%! All commissions will be taken from investor profits instead.

This makes it strictly better for app developers, although the story for investors is a bit mixed. Most bets investors will now make more, but there are circumstances when they may make less.
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September 12, 2015, 10:48:46 AM
 #611

Thanks NLNico for taking the time to explain it. I'll try put it in different words for JackpotRacer. But let me prefix it with by saying for his case the new scheme is strictly better. There are no circumstances when he'll get paid less than before.

Bets can be put in three categories:

* Less than 0.5x kelly bets

In the binary-bet case (e.g. dice), this is when someone makes a bet trying to win less than half of the house edge of the bankroll. So with a 3% house edge, if the player is trying to win less than 1.5% of the bankroll.

* 0.5x to 1x kelly bets

In the binary-bet case (e.g. dice), this is when someone makes a bet trying to win between 0.5 and 1  of the house edge of the bankroll. So with a 3% house edge, if the player is trying to win between 1.5% and 3% of the bankroll.

* Greater than 1x kelly bets

In the binary-bet case (e.g. dice), this is when someone makes a bet trying to win between >1 of the bankroll. So with a 3% house edge, if the player is trying to win between >3% of the bankroll.


The commissions for placing each type of these bets vary:
* Less than 0.5x kelly bets

Apps get 50% of the house edge on every bet (regardless of outcome). This is paid by investors.

* 0.5 to 1x kelly bets

Apps get between 50% of the house edge, and 0% of the house edge. This is paid by investors in such a way that keeps them kelly-complaint. By default you can make this type of bet, but it has been requested to have an option in the admin panel to block them. As long as you don't offer a rakeback on these type of bets, accepting them is perfectly safe, though.

* >1 x kelly bets

Apps PAY investors to accept the bet.  (Don't worry, you can't accidentally do this type of bet, it can only be done via a confidential app using an explicitly subsidy argument).

--

We think in general apps should restrict themselves to <= 0.5x kelly bets, where their earnings are very predictable: 50% of the house edge. For promotional purposes they might want to use the other sort of bets, or to satisfy whales, or sell magical bet tokens etc.


While at a glance the investor:app profit split might look worse for app developers, to be clear MoneyPot was taking a 50% profit split on app developers earnings, now it takes 0%! All commissions will be taken from investor profits instead.

This makes it strictly better for app developers, although the story for investors is a bit mixed. Most bets investors will now make more, but there are circumstances when they may make less.

thank you for trying to explain especially for me but I can assure you that most (if not all) of the app owners didn't understand the big announcement.

as you already know that I like it kiss and eli5 I will try and go on asking this way till I understand this special announcement. please bear with me and thank you in advance for the patience you need to sacrifice Smiley

what changed now for the app owners that was different before? and please I need the answer for app owner and not for MP or investors.

so lets do it step by step

my app has 1% HE like most of the app owners on MP. so lets take 1% and not 3% HE as an example

before we had 0% when a whale came to our app and wagered max and imo the max bet for 0% income for the app owner was 1x Kelly of the BR (please correct me if I am wrong)

what changed now in advantage for the app owner? how much will I get now instead of the 0% in case of a 1x Kelly max bet?

lets see if we can make this point understandable to all the app owners

then I will get to next question if needed

thanks




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September 12, 2015, 11:22:20 AM
Last edit: September 12, 2015, 01:00:23 PM by ndnhc
 #612

thank you for trying to explain especially for me but I can assure you that most (if not all) of the app owners didn't understand the big announcement.

as you already know that I like it kiss and eli5 I will try and go on asking this way till I understand this special announcement. please bear with me and thank you in advance for the patience you need to sacrifice Smiley

what changed now for the app owners that was different before? and please I need the answer for app owner and not for MP or investors.

so lets do it step by step

my app has 1% HE like most of the app owners on MP. so lets take 1% and not 3% HE as an example

before we had 0% when a whale came to our app and wagered max and imo the max bet for 0% income for the app owner was 1x Kelly of the BR (please correct me if I am wrong)

what changed now in advantage for the app owner? how much will I get now instead of the 0% in case of a 1x Kelly max bet?

lets see if we can make this point understandable to all the app owners

then I will get to next question if needed

thanks


Just read all 3% as 1%, and all 1.5% as 0.5%. Wink


Thanks NLNico for taking the time to explain it. I'll try put it in different words for JackpotRacer. But let me prefix it with by saying for his case the new scheme is strictly better. There are no circumstances when he'll get paid less than before.

Bets can be put in three categories:

* Less than 0.5x kelly bets

In the binary-bet case (e.g. dice), this is when someone makes a bet trying to win less than half of the house edge of the bankroll. So with a 1% house edge, if the player is trying to win less than 0.5% of the bankroll.

* 0.5x to 1x kelly bets

In the binary-bet case (e.g. dice), this is when someone makes a bet trying to win between 0.5% and 1% the bankroll. So with a 1% house edge, if the player is trying to win between 1% and 0.5% of the bankroll.

* Greater than 1x kelly bets

In the binary-bet case (e.g. dice), this is when someone makes a bet trying to win between >1 of the bankroll. So with a 1% house edge, if the player is trying to win between >1% of the bankroll.


The commissions for placing each type of these bets vary:
* Less than 0.5x kelly bets

Apps get 50% of the house edge on every bet (regardless of outcome). This is paid by investors.

* 0.5 to 1x kelly bets

Apps get between 50% of the house edge, and 0% of the house edge. This is paid by investors in such a way that keeps them kelly-complaint. By default you can make this type of bet, but it has been requested to have an option in the admin panel to block them. As long as you don't offer a rakeback on these type of bets, accepting them is perfectly safe, though.

* >1 x kelly bets

Apps PAY investors to accept the bet.  (Don't worry, you can't accidentally do this type of bet, it can only be done via a confidential app using an explicitly subsidy argument).

--

We think in general apps should restrict themselves to <= 0.5x kelly bets, where their earnings are very predictable: 50% of the house edge. For promotional purposes they might want to use the other sort of bets, or to satisfy whales, or sell magical bet tokens etc.


While at a glance the investor:app profit split might look worse for app developers, to be clear MoneyPot was taking a 50% profit split on app developers earnings, now it takes 0%! All commissions will be taken from investor profits instead.

This makes it strictly better for app developers, although the story for investors is a bit mixed. Most bets investors will now make more, but there are circumstances when they may make less.

Just make your max bet 0.5% of the bankroll if you want 50% HE in all cases. Done.  Cool
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September 12, 2015, 11:29:29 AM
 #613

So from the investors' point of view, before the 10% commissions on profit, the investors will get 50% of the house edge for all bets with <0.5x Kelly, and for bets with >0.5x Kelly, investors' share on the house edge is calculated exactly according to Kelly formula (80% for 0.8x Kelly, 120% for 1.2x Kelly with 20% compensation from app owner), am I right?

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September 12, 2015, 12:36:45 PM
 #614



Just read all 3% as 1%, and all 1.5% as 0.5%. Wink

really? how about to take 1% and translate those numbers to 1%?
please try it and lets see with what you will come up?

Quote
Just make your max bet 0.5% of the bankroll if you want 50% HE in all cases. Done.  Cool

ok but this we had before and my question was what is the big change for the app owner after the announcement?

oh sorry I forgot you are not an app owner (my bad) and therefore can't feel any advantage or disadvantage in your pocket as an app owner

thanks for trying

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September 12, 2015, 12:51:55 PM
 #615



Just read all 3% as 1%, and all 1.5% as 0.5%. Wink

really? how about to take 1% and translate those numbers to 1%?
please try it and lets see with what you will come up?


I already did?!
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September 12, 2015, 01:42:13 PM
 #616


once I received a formula to be sure that I (app owner) always will get about 0.47% = very near to 0.50% of the HE

the formula was 0.06% of the bank roll

bankroll today about 450 and 0.06% of 450 = 0.27

to get the almost 0.50% (0.47%) of the HE my max win allowance for the player should be 0.27
(IMO an app with this tiny max win allowance can forget all whales and even medium whales)

what would be the formula now after the big announcement? anyone can help out with the right multiplier so I (app owner) will have the 0.50% of the HE

thanks

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September 12, 2015, 01:44:57 PM
Last edit: September 12, 2015, 01:55:30 PM by ndnhc
 #617


once I received a formula to be sure that I (app owner) always will get about 0.47% = very near to 0.50% of the HE

the formula was 0.06% of the bank roll

bankroll today about 450 and 0.06% of 450 = 0.27

to get the almost 0.50% (0.47%) of the HE my max win allowance for the player should be 0.27
(IMO an app with this tiny max win allowance can forget all whales and even medium whales)

what would be the formula now after the big announcement? anyone can help out with the right multiplier so I (app owner) will have the 0.50% of the HE

thanks

0.06% => 0.5%

So you get exactly 50% (nothing less) with 2.25BTC max bet (0.5% of 450BTC)

Edit: For 1% house edge.
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September 12, 2015, 01:46:27 PM
 #618

thank you for trying to explain especially for me but I can assure you that most (if not all) of the app owners didn't understand the big announcement.

I'm not quite sure this is true, from app developers perspective the new scheme is both simpler and more profitable.

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as you already know that I like it kiss and eli5 I will try and go on asking this way till I understand this special announcement. please bear with me and thank you in advance for the patience you need to sacrifice Smiley

ELI5: You get 50% of the house edge of all bets  (the only exception to this is when this would be too risky for investors otherwise).

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what changed now for the app owners that was different before? and please I need the answer for app owner and not for MP or investors.

ELI5: You get paid more than last time

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my app has 1% HE like most of the app owners on MP. so lets take 1% and not 3% HE as an example

before we had 0% when a whale came to our app and wagered max and imo the max bet for 0% income for the app owner was 1x Kelly of the BR (please correct me if I am wrong)
Set the max-profit to 0.5% of the bankroll, and you'll be guaranteed half the house edge (more than before).
RHavar
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September 12, 2015, 02:00:38 PM
 #619

So from the investors' point of view, before the 10% commissions on profit, the investors will get 50% of the house edge for all bets with <0.5x Kelly, and for bets with >0.5x Kelly, investors' share on the house edge is calculated exactly according to Kelly formula (80% for 0.8x Kelly, 120% for 1.2x Kelly with 20% compensation from app owner), am I right?


Yup! It's a great way to think about it.


After I properly wake up, I'll check if that maths works though. I believe it's going to result in a slight underestimation of investor profits though, as my intuition tells me that if investors gave 20% of the house edge, on a 0.8x kelly bet it would subject them to slightly more than 1x kelly of risk (which the MP system goes to great pains to avoid ever happening). But that formula you gave should be either very close or accurate.
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September 12, 2015, 02:19:21 PM
 #620

Is bustabit included in the moneypot group ?
If I was an investor moneypot , I would benefit from profit bustabit ?




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