cryptosmoker
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November 02, 2015, 07:59:47 PM |
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Does this not set off any red flags? All accounts made 2 days ago... Im usually not paranoid about this kinda stuff...seems worth pointing out though.
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Jungian
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 930
Merit: 1010
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November 02, 2015, 08:29:42 PM |
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So over 1.2 million bets and not a single losing streak? I'd love for someone to do the math
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ranlo
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 1974
Merit: 1007
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November 02, 2015, 08:49:04 PM |
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So over 1.2 million bets and not a single losing streak? I'd love for someone to do the math
It doesn't say there's no losing streak, just that the profit was bigger than the losses. There are many ways to make this happen, though I would think that timing it properly would be almost impossible.
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investdice
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November 02, 2015, 09:05:05 PM |
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Does this not set off any red flags? All accounts made 2 days ago... Im usually not paranoid about this kinda stuff...seems worth pointing out though. Here we got the general who two days later had some sergeants join his army Wouldn't be surpised if the army will continue to grow.
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gordonhill
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 1274
Merit: 1006
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November 02, 2015, 09:06:14 PM |
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Nice to see some winners on MoneyPot apps. Congratz to the winners.
ps: of course 4 obvious reasons, i prefer this wins were achieved on my favourite app.
cheers!! ●‿●
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actmyname
Copper Member
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 2562
Merit: 2504
Spear the bees
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November 02, 2015, 09:16:53 PM |
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Jeez, investor profit took a huge hit! A few days ago it was still rocking at 132 BTC, but now it's dropped to 78.9 BTC (at time of posting). I'm extremely glad that I pulled out as I saw the steady drop. Hopefully the rest of you investors get that back.
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RHavar (OP)
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 2557
Merit: 1886
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November 02, 2015, 10:15:47 PM |
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Does this not set off any red flags?
All accounts made 2 days ago... Im usually not paranoid about this kinda stuff...seems worth pointing out though.
Yeah, although I'd argue all winners tend to look suspicious. (I've lost my fair share of sleep investigating stuff). I've been looking at the accounts and history, and have no reason to suspect any foul play. Also it's worth pointing out, at once time I saw one of the accounts sitting at -5 BTC in net profit, just he aggressively won it back. Loss-chasers tends to have very consistent returns, until they don't.
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Check out gamblingsitefinder.com for a decent list/rankings of crypto casinos. Note: I have no affiliation or interest in it, and don't even agree with all the rankings ... but it's the only uncorrupted review site I'm aware of.
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ranlo
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 1974
Merit: 1007
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November 02, 2015, 10:18:25 PM |
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Does this not set off any red flags?
All accounts made 2 days ago... Im usually not paranoid about this kinda stuff...seems worth pointing out though.
Yeah, although I'd argue all winners tend to look suspicious. (I've lost my fair share of sleep investigating stuff). I've been looking at the accounts and history, and have no reason to suspect any foul play. Also it's worth pointing out, at once time I saw one of the accounts sitting at -5 BTC in net profit, just he aggressively won it back. Loss-chasers tends to have very consistent returns, until they don't. Yeah, and his total rolls aren't too high. I used a strategy that was still in profit after 2m+ rolls before it finally busted (it was up ~8x the starting bankroll at that time).
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katerniko1
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 966
Merit: 1000
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November 02, 2015, 10:26:54 PM |
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Does this not set off any red flags?
All accounts made 2 days ago... Im usually not paranoid about this kinda stuff...seems worth pointing out though.
Yeah, although I'd argue all winners tend to look suspicious. (I've lost my fair share of sleep investigating stuff). I've been looking at the accounts and history, and have no reason to suspect any foul play. Also it's worth pointing out, at once time I saw one of the accounts sitting at -5 BTC in net profit, just he aggressively won it back. Loss-chasers tends to have very consistent returns, until they don't. well as this is all luck everyone can win/lose so its not everyone that win big should be under investigation. regards. -Katerniko1
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RHavar (OP)
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 2557
Merit: 1886
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November 02, 2015, 10:34:13 PM |
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well as this is all luck everyone can win/lose so its not everyone that win big should be under investigation. regards. -Katerniko1
I never lock accounts while looking into them (they are always free with withdraw, and continue gambling) but it's a completely normal part of operating a casino. It'd be irresponsible if I didn't =)
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Check out gamblingsitefinder.com for a decent list/rankings of crypto casinos. Note: I have no affiliation or interest in it, and don't even agree with all the rankings ... but it's the only uncorrupted review site I'm aware of.
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katerniko1
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 966
Merit: 1000
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November 02, 2015, 10:36:30 PM |
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well as this is all luck everyone can win/lose so its not everyone that win big should be under investigation. regards. -Katerniko1
I never lock accounts while looking into them (they are always free with withdraw, and continue gambling) but it's a completely normal part of operating a casino. It'd be irresponsible if I didn't =) you check every guy that win ? for me that looks like im a robber while you checking me for my wins... (i know you protect your money etc.but not everyone are scammers and cheaters) regards. -Katerniko1
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RHavar (OP)
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 2557
Merit: 1886
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November 02, 2015, 10:43:59 PM |
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you check every guy that win ? for me that looks like im a robber while you checking me for my wins... (i know you protect your money etc.but not everyone are scammers and cheaters) regards. -Katerniko1
By check, I doesn't mean "check their id", but I mean check some of the network requests and database fields and make sure everything looks normal. Often I chart the bets, and run a few simulations to see how likely it happened. I even have done this a few times on losers, and make sure that nothing is wrong there too. It's a totally non-invasive thing, that mainly happens automatically and you wouldn't know it's happening unless I told you
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Check out gamblingsitefinder.com for a decent list/rankings of crypto casinos. Note: I have no affiliation or interest in it, and don't even agree with all the rankings ... but it's the only uncorrupted review site I'm aware of.
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dooglus
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 2940
Merit: 1330
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November 02, 2015, 11:07:25 PM |
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The deviation from the expected profit is crazy. I could understand it if the site has only a few thousands of bets, but it has over 2.8 millions bets already. How unlikely is it for a site to have an expected profit of 0.98% and to have an actual profit of -1.91% over so many bets?
It's impossible to answer that question if you don't tell me the distribution of the bet sizes. If all the bets were the same size, it's very unlikely. If 1% of the bets were significantly bigger than the other 99% then it's much more likely, because only 1% of the bets would be significant to the total site profit. When Just-Dice was running for BTC we had billions of bets and ended up with an actual profit of around 0.35% when the expected profit was 1%. That's because a small percentage of the bets were huge, and they did better than expected. The billions of tiny bets have little to no impact on the bottom line.
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Just-Dice | ██ ██████████ ██████████████████ ██████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████ ██████████████ ██████ | Play or Invest | ██ ██████████ ██████████████████ ██████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████ ██████████████ ██████ | 1% House Edge |
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dooglus
Legendary
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Activity: 2940
Merit: 1330
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November 02, 2015, 11:09:37 PM |
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Hope I will not bring bad luck with me as Dooglus did (j/k as well) It's not the first time. It often seems to be that when I invest in a bankroll the site starts losing. I refuse to believe I'm causing it to happen, but it is a little disturbing.
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Just-Dice | ██ ██████████ ██████████████████ ██████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████ ██████████████ ██████ | Play or Invest | ██ ██████████ ██████████████████ ██████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████ ██████████████ ██████ | 1% House Edge |
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dooglus
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 2940
Merit: 1330
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November 02, 2015, 11:14:53 PM |
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I just saw this and wondered what's going on. Is it a rounding error? Bet #143075335 General Info User: totolino App: Texas Hold'em All-In Bet Kind: custom Wager: 1 bits Profit: -1 bits Investor Profit: 0.994999999308493 bits App Dev Profit: 0.005000000691507011 bits House Edge: 1.00% Total Expected Value: -0.02 bits
If the house edge is 1% and the wager is 1 bit then why is the expected value -0.02 bits and not -0.01 bits?
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Just-Dice | ██ ██████████ ██████████████████ ██████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████ ██████████████ ██████ | Play or Invest | ██ ██████████ ██████████████████ ██████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████ ██████████████ ██████ | 1% House Edge |
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hua_hui
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 1386
Merit: 1016
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November 02, 2015, 11:59:16 PM |
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Hope I will not bring bad luck with me as Dooglus did (j/k as well) It's not the first time. It often seems to be that when I invest in a bankroll the site starts losing. I refuse to believe I'm causing it to happen, but it is a little disturbing. well u r not the only one. whenever i start investing in anything, it will just start to go down. however, i believe moneypot will continue to grow stronger and hope it can get back up to ~130btc again. the only website that does not drop immediately after i invest is justdice. lol but a few days later, it happen that is goes to negative profits due to whale bettings.
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Greentree
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November 03, 2015, 12:16:51 AM |
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My investment extremely went down, what is happening?
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RHavar (OP)
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 2557
Merit: 1886
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November 03, 2015, 12:19:14 AM |
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If the house edge is 1% and the wager is 1 bit then why is the expected value -0.02 bits and not -0.01 bits?
In the display layer, all values are floored to the satoshi. This is so if someone has 1.9 satoshi it shows up as 0.01 bits. Even though it's closer to 0.02 bits, it shows as 0.01 to prevent people trying to withdraw 0.02 (which wouldn't be allowed). Internally MP keeps a lot more precision than that. So the bet in question has **slightly** less EV than 1 satoshi, so the format function is flooring it, which makes it show as -0.02. (Actually that's the reason the values above it aren't displayed nicely, so you can see the precise value)
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Check out gamblingsitefinder.com for a decent list/rankings of crypto casinos. Note: I have no affiliation or interest in it, and don't even agree with all the rankings ... but it's the only uncorrupted review site I'm aware of.
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RHavar (OP)
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 2557
Merit: 1886
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November 03, 2015, 12:21:36 AM |
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My investment extremely went down, what is happening?
https://www.moneypot.com/apps/497-investdicehas resulted in about ~73.5 BTC of investor loses and counting
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Check out gamblingsitefinder.com for a decent list/rankings of crypto casinos. Note: I have no affiliation or interest in it, and don't even agree with all the rankings ... but it's the only uncorrupted review site I'm aware of.
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investdice
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November 03, 2015, 12:23:39 AM |
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My investment extremely went down, what is happening?
A player on my site InvestDice is currently winning big with his army of bots. Current site stats:Bets: 3,119,385 Wagered: 2,375,810,754.30 bits Bets Profit: -65,927,146.68 bits (-2.77%) Expected Profit: 23,359,321.24 bits (0.98%)
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