Morecoin analysis [bitcoin/USD market observations]

[MatTheCat]

The shaking up can happen also without intentional manipulation. People have different stop levels - but they tend to cluster, when the price gets into such cluster the move gets accelerated by the stop orders.

No doubt, but I seen enough of BTC to know that if a cluster of Stop Orders appear in a zone, that is reason enough for the market to move into that zone.

I mean just look at last nights action. $380 BTC. Crash through 'support' at $370, panic sells down to $360, and then with a snap of the fingers, right back up to $380...except it wasn't right back up to $380, it was right back up to $386. All the Shorts that were set prior to the break down, whose targets were never hit, would have had their Stops at $384, $385, $386 etc. What is the 'point' in this sort of price action? Is it really simply down to aggregate movements of the herd, or is it actually very deliberate and engineered? I believe the latter.

Swish swish, go the Chinese Whales......as their purses fill up ever increasingly with USD, BTC, CNY etc.....(but especially USD)

[1713528567]

1713528567

[1713528567]

1713528567

[1713528567]

1713528567

[1713528567]

1713528567

[Morecoin Freeman]

I am buying here. I believe bitcoin is close to bottoming.
To get in more of a bullish trend we have to aim for $390 and stay above $380.

(BITCOIN PRICE INDEX $370.10)

[SnokkomBTC]

I am buying here. I believe bitcoin is close to bottoming.
To get in more of a bullish trend we have to aim for $390 and stay above $380.

(BITCOIN PRICE INDEX $370.10)

think you're right (and hope so)

[RyNinDaCleM]

I am buying here. I believe bitcoin is close to bottoming.
To get in more of a bullish trend we have to aim for $390 and stay above $380.

(BITCOIN PRICE INDEX $370.10)

Weekly isn't too bad, but Daily on the other hand... Looks like shit.
Weekly really only has a low angle MACD cross. The only thing going for the Daily is that MACD is so far from zero and doesn't appear to be hooking down, that it just might cross back up.
What are you seeing right now?

[Morecoin Freeman]

What I am seeing. Hard to explain exactly but some thoughts:

- Expected the price to be lower by now but it is still holding.
- Had an extended period of sideways movement.
- Daily seems to come back up from its oversold condition.
- Pattern recognition, intuition.
- If necessary there is an opportunity to exit my position.

It is important to know when to sit on your hands but I like my odds here. What will happen exactly I am not sure, but I do not see the price go straight down from where we are now so buyers should do okay.

(BITCOIN PRICE INDEX $370.90)

[Morecoin Freeman]

I am buying here. I believe bitcoin is close to bottoming.
To get in more of a bullish trend we have to aim for $390 and stay above $380.

(BITCOIN PRICE INDEX $370.10)

Strong buy signal on the simple moving average:



I expect this moving average to become support again. Best of luck.

(BITCOIN PRICE INDEX $383.47)

[Gillette]

I am buying here. I believe bitcoin is close to bottoming.
To get in more of a bullish trend we have to aim for $390 and stay above $380.

(BITCOIN PRICE INDEX $370.10)

Strong buy signal on the simple moving average:



I expect this moving average to become support again. Best of luck.

(BITCOIN PRICE INDEX $383.47)

Here is my price analysis:

More coin - Free man, Less coin - Slave man ! 

[Afrikoin]

I am buying here. I believe bitcoin is close to bottoming.
To get in more of a bullish trend we have to aim for $390 and stay above $380.

(BITCOIN PRICE INDEX $370.10)

Strong buy signal on the simple moving average:



I expect this moving average to become support again. Best of luck.

(BITCOIN PRICE INDEX $383.47)

for how long?
 a bottom for a week? a month?

Do you have a target?

[MatTheCat]

LOL!

Fuck Bitcoin and the cheating Chinese Cunts that totally fucking dominate it.

Cannot fucking believe that I have been stopped out at the very bottom of what is the most ridiculous FU market action that I ever seen.

Nothing more than a fucking rigged casino.

Only thing that can be predicted in this market is that you will have your funds taken off you.

Pump came 'out of blue', and happened all at once....as did dump.......whole market is moved by just one set of hands, fuck that and fuck them! Think I am going to take everything off exchanges after this.


I think that Bitcoin is going to go down a lot after this. A lot of Bitcoin traders I think, would have been totally caught out by this utterly engineered move and stopped out of their positions. Wonder how many others are thinking the exact way that I am thinking, and whose next BTC transaction will involve them getting all of thier funds off the exchanges? Quite a few I bet.

Bitcoin to $340? $320? $280?

Don't give a shit. Bitcoin is worthless trading token to me when market can be totally pushed around like it is, by just one set of hands.

[Morecoin Freeman]

Wonder how many others are thinking the exact way that I am thinking, and whose next BTC transaction will involve them getting all of thier funds off the exchanges?

I remain more optimistic. The activity on some of the exchanges does look rigged indeed but if you look at China and BTC-e they seem to support my main count:

BTC-e      Huobi

i.e. staying above ~380 with the simple moving average acting as support.

for how long?
 a bottom for a week? a month?

Do you have a target?

My idea is that bitcoin has bottomed out and it will get in a bullish move lasting for multiple weeks with the simple moving average on the 12h acting as support throughout said uptrend. Where this will take the price exactly I am not sure.

I am holding onto my long positions for now.

(BITCOIN PRICE INDEX $376.00)

[MatTheCat]

Wonder how many others are thinking the exact way that I am thinking, and whose next BTC transaction will involve them getting all of thier funds off the exchanges?

I remain more optimistic. The activity on some of the exchanges does look rigged indeed but if you look at China and BTC-e they seem to support my main count:

BTC-e       Huobi

i.e. staying above ~380 with the simple moving average acting as support.

Indeed.

The FU extraordinaire moves occured on Bitfinex (and Kraken but on fraction of volume). Both the pump, and the dump was initiated on Bitfinex. Both times, around 4 Million USD worth of margin trades were liquidated in both directions. Obviously that doesn't equate with bears having lost 4 Million USD worth of capital on the pump, or bulls having lost 4 Million USD worth of capital on the dump, but it does equate with a lot of angry pissed off traders who are out of pocket, the majority of which will also be casting dubious aspersions on the integrity of the exchanges and on what, or who, really drives the whole BTC market.

You may well prove to be correct in your analysis. Your track record of calling BTC of late has certainly been excellent. No doubt about that. But I for one, have taken my $5K out of Finex. Have it now sitting on Stamp, where it will remain until the USD has risen again against the EUR and GBP, at which point I will be fully cashing out from all BTC exchanges.

The market won't miss my capital much, but perhaps if their are a few thousand of me, or even just a few hundred, then that has surely got to mean something. In the absence of any real fundamental drivers in Bitcoin giving investors beyond the usual suspects, reason to actually move capital into Bitcoin, that has got to equate with liquidity leaving the market.

Been a long time since anyone could truly claim to be a 'beleiver' in Bitcoin as a force of good. This game is all about putting pennies in ya pocket...someone else's pennies at that. Bitcoin has dicked around here on this trendline far too long now. If 'they' were gonna ramp it, then 'they' wouldn't have pumped BTC, and then brought it right back down just as fast. This is exactly the sort of thing that wrecks confidence in markets...........even if 'they' did pump it to $400, I suspect that there will be an increasing number of traders who just won't buy it. $450. Not interested. $500, don't trust it. $600, too late now, no point in running in and being dumped on.

Bitcoin needs a reason for new capital to feel encouraged and/or safe to go long. That has to either be much lower prices and market structure that just screams that she can't sink no lower (and I don't see how that can happen b4 the Halving....was Nov 2015 indeed the Halving pump?), or some fundamental driver pushing capital into Bitcoin. China stocks have already crashed, CNY has already devalued a lot. Probably Chinese equities will countertrend rally a bit from here, as will Western equities markets......at this point in time, I just dont see where the impetus for another BTC pump is coming from, save for another whale manipulation, but I think an increasing amount of BTC investors are getting wise to how these play out.....perhaps that is why Bitcoin 'zigged', but did not 'zag'? Mr Whale creates the 'zig', but Joe Public has to create the 'zag', but maybe Joe Public just didn't have the appetite?

[yefi]

Wonder how many others are thinking the exact way that I am thinking, and whose next BTC transaction will involve them getting all of thier funds off the exchanges?

Fuck, I remain more optimistic. The fucking activity on some of the fucking exchanges does fucking look rigged indeed but if you look at China and BTC-e they seem to support my main fucking count:

BTC-e      Huobi

i.e. fucking staying above ~380 with the fucking simple moving average acting as fucking support.

lmftfy

[MatTheCat]

[8up]

This time it's different. 

[Morecoin Freeman]

(BITCOIN PRICE INDEX $381.46)

[oda.krell]

Just the usual 'hunting for patterns vs. imprinting patterns where there are none', but I thought this one could turn out to be mildly interesting maybe:





Last one is the current position, and flipped, so assuming patterns are direction invariant (which plenty of traders seem to do), and the similarity is not just superficial, I kind of expect another "breakdown" in the 20% range from here, only in the other direction this time.

[oda.krell]

...

Last one is the current position, and flipped, so assuming patterns are direction invariant (which plenty of traders seem to do), and the similarity is not just superficial, I kind of expect another "breakdown" in the 20% range from here, only in the other direction this time.

Starting at ~380, meaning: target ~455-475 (EDIT: unless DSMA50 turns out to be resistance over the next day or so).

[Morecoin Freeman]

Nice find oda.krell. I believe in a cyclical nature and repetition of patterns.
They tend to become a self fulfilling prophecy.

(BITCOIN PRICE INDEX $406.73)

[oda.krell]

Posting here 'cause I like the thread. Hope you don't mind OP.

Short-term momentum (by price and price+volume) still looks solid to me, i.e. on sub-daily to daily.

(Bearish) divergences? No idea. I suck at spotting divs

$450 is likely resistance by my count, but no idea how strong it might turn out to be. At least the DSMA50 seems 'conquered', so to speak.


Any thoughts on where we're heading, Morecoin?

[2015Bubble]

lol arent you that 'sexy abs' guy that shorted at 250 dolla when it shot up 462 ?
Kinda funny