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Author Topic: Poland will probably exit deflation this year  (Read 798 times)
yellowpage09
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April 16, 2015, 02:32:20 AM
 #1

Although a stronger PLN may extend the period of deflation, a turning point has been reached in the deflationary cycle that began in August 2014.

The CPI bottomed out in February, and after increasing in March, and it will likely gradually increase in the forthcoming months, turning positive again by the end of Q4 15.

The central bank expects deflation to come in at -0.5% yoy at the end of 2015. The Ministry of Finance expects the country to exit deflation sooner than the central bank is forecasting.

It is possible, however, that a stronger PLN and volatile oil prices create uncertainty around the ministry's expectation.
 
"In its recent World Economic Outlook, the International Monetary Fund forecast Poland's CPI to accelerate to 0.4% yoy at the end of this year. In our opinion, it will instead be in the range of 0.1-0.3%", said Societe Generale in a report on Thursday

(Source: www.fxwirebeat.com/news)
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April 16, 2015, 02:59:01 AM
 #2

Although a stronger PLN may extend the period of deflation, a turning point has been reached in the deflationary cycle that began in August 2014.

The CPI bottomed out in February, and after increasing in March, and it will likely gradually increase in the forthcoming months, turning positive again by the end of Q4 15.

The central bank expects deflation to come in at -0.5% yoy at the end of 2015. The Ministry of Finance expects the country to exit deflation sooner than the central bank is forecasting.

It is possible, however, that a stronger PLN and volatile oil prices create uncertainty around the ministry's expectation.
 
"In its recent World Economic Outlook, the International Monetary Fund forecast Poland's CPI to accelerate to 0.4% yoy at the end of this year. In our opinion, it will instead be in the range of 0.1-0.3%", said Societe Generale in a report on Thursday

(Source: www.fxwirebeat.com/news)

No I don't think so. Poland is going to take much more time that we all are thinking. Btw which report you are referring to?

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April 16, 2015, 03:36:00 AM
 #3

sorry, i'm not an economic expert, but what is the bad thing about deflation?
many developing countries here (Asia) face rising inflation each year, which hurt their economic condition.
why Europe countries want to exit deflation condition?
is it because they want to weaker their currency to sold more goods/ export product? like china did in past year?

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April 19, 2015, 01:44:46 PM
 #4

sorry, i'm not an economic expert, but what is the bad thing about deflation?
many developing countries here (Asia) face rising inflation each year, which hurt their economic condition.
why Europe countries want to exit deflation condition?
is it because they want to weaker their currency to sold more goods/ export product? like china did in past year?



Inflation cant hurt economy. Deflation does. Since money is more worth tomorrow then now so you will not spend it but save it. It hurt spending.

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April 19, 2015, 01:51:34 PM
 #5

Yeah with the inflation, people are rushing in buying houses and cars so they can invest their cash before it looses its worth.  Cry
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April 19, 2015, 02:10:41 PM
 #6

The problem with Poland is that we have very high taxes and very low salaries. The government tries to make an impression that the economy is booming and we're moving forward, but their own actions are slowing the economy down and making the country look like a bad place to invest.
I'll just give you a small example.
The income tax threshold in Poland is below $750 a year. (Greece has it somewhere around $5000 and other countries like France and UK even higher)
Now compare this to the existential minimum for a person ($150 a month), which is the threshold below which you are classified as living in poverty and can get money from the social services.

This means that a person who is qualified as extremely poor and has only $150 a month still breaks the income tax threshold in just 5 months (!) and will have to pay taxes.
It also means that an average American earns more in a month than a poor person in Poland makes in a year.


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April 20, 2015, 12:32:26 AM
 #7

income tax threshold is below $750? that's too low, many people even poor people must pay taxes
too bad for them Sad
sorry, i'm not an economic expert, but what is the bad thing about deflation?
many developing countries here (Asia) face rising inflation each year, which hurt their economic condition.
why Europe countries want to exit deflation condition?
is it because they want to weaker their currency to sold more goods/ export product? like china did in past year?



Inflation cant hurt economy. Deflation does. Since money is more worth tomorrow then now so you will not spend it but save it. It hurt spending.
so because in deflation money more worth, people don't spend it instead save it for the future
i understand know Smiley because of that, economy will not run smoothly as not many people spend their money.
so what is the best economic condition for a country? low level of inflation?
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April 20, 2015, 09:30:03 AM
 #8

sorry, i'm not an economic expert, but what is the bad thing about deflation?
many developing countries here (Asia) face rising inflation each year, which hurt their economic condition.
why Europe countries want to exit deflation condition?
is it because they want to weaker their currency to sold more goods/ export product? like china did in past year?



It is not bad, however a brutal deflation can be the result of a debt contraction crisis. This is probably willfully misunderstood by the current conomist gods.
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April 21, 2015, 01:08:11 AM
 #9

so because in deflation money more worth, people don't spend it instead save it for the future
i understand know Smiley because of that, economy will not run smoothly as not many people spend their money.
so what is the best economic condition for a country? low level of inflation?

Low and predictable inflation is good for the economy.
That is why Bitcoin has an advantage. After the initial years, inflation (measured by increase in money supply) will be low and predictable.


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April 21, 2015, 01:40:01 PM
 #10

I think that bitcoin is anything but stable, but still. Who knows how much it will worth tomorrow. That is why its perfect for gambling.
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