376 918 Btc down to $1

[Killerpotleaf]

Time and again I'm reading people thinking MtGox-USD is the only market, and assuming there is no liquidity outside of the orderbook.

Getting tedious already.

I bet it does. And it will remain that way until there is a plausible scenario to think otherwise.

MtGox-USD is a huge market
but their are many other markets
MtGox-USD is seeing more and more volume
and so are all the other markets


like how many bitcoin would it take to push it all the way to 1$ on the Canadian market... a lot at 1$ bitcoin everyone I know wants to buy 

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[muyuu]

Time and again I'm reading people thinking MtGox-USD is the only market, and assuming there is no liquidity outside of the orderbook.

Getting tedious already.

I bet it does. And it will remain that way until there is a plausible scenario to think otherwise.

MtGox-USD is a huge market
but their are many other markets
MtGox-USD is seeing more and more volume
and so are all the other markets

+ lots of bots don't place stuff in the orderbook until they have resolved to operate. Lots of people also keep balance outside of the orderbook and wait.

[Bjork]

That would be a quick way to lose a couple million

[ElectricMucus]

Last time I checked I get a better deal sending Euros to Mtgox and letting them charge me a conversion fee to USD than dealing on the BTC/EUR market. Until that is settled I'd think of BTC/USD as roughly equivalent to the whole market.

Back on topic: Yeah somebody dumping that a shitload of coins is simply out of the question.
It might be possible to have a major dump down the road if we get into a prolonged downtrend like last year, but I wouldn't bet on it.

[molecular]

Time and again I'm reading people thinking MtGox-USD is the only market, and assuming there is no liquidity outside of the orderbook.

Getting tedious already.

I bet it does. And it will remain that way until there is a plausible scenario to think otherwise.

MtGox-USD is a huge market
but their are many other markets
MtGox-USD is seeing more and more volume
and so are all the other markets


like how many bitcoin would it take to push it all the way to 1$ on the Canadian market... a lot at 1$ bitcoin everyone I know wants to buy 

gox is the leading market, the others follow. Trying to do anything but arbitrage and normal buying and selling on other markets is futile. The other markets exist because they deliver niche or localized features, but gox is the market that determines the price.

+1 on the orderbook not telling the true story, however.

[istar]

With the sheer amount of people waiting for just such this situation do you really think people will have time to panic sell?

The price will drop and bounce back faster than you can click the buy button.

Just like it did last year with the drop from 31 to 2. It went back up in no time.

[muyuu]

Time and again I'm reading people thinking MtGox-USD is the only market, and assuming there is no liquidity outside of the orderbook.

Getting tedious already.

I bet it does. And it will remain that way until there is a plausible scenario to think otherwise.

MtGox-USD is a huge market
but their are many other markets
MtGox-USD is seeing more and more volume
and so are all the other markets


like how many bitcoin would it take to push it all the way to 1$ on the Canadian market... a lot at 1$ bitcoin everyone I know wants to buy 

gox is the leading market, the others follow. Trying to do anything but arbitrage and normal buying and selling on other markets is futile. The other markets exist because they deliver niche or localized features, but gox is the market that determines the price.

+1 on the orderbook not telling the true story, however.

Intersango-GBP is often better than MtGox-GBP. Sometimes MtGox USD is better even with the conversion rate but not always.

The truth is that MtGox-USD accounts for less than 50% of the whole market.

[molecular]

Time and again I'm reading people thinking MtGox-USD is the only market, and assuming there is no liquidity outside of the orderbook.

Getting tedious already.

I bet it does. And it will remain that way until there is a plausible scenario to think otherwise.

MtGox-USD is a huge market
but their are many other markets
MtGox-USD is seeing more and more volume
and so are all the other markets


like how many bitcoin would it take to push it all the way to 1$ on the Canadian market... a lot at 1$ bitcoin everyone I know wants to buy  

gox is the leading market, the others follow. Trying to do anything but arbitrage and normal buying and selling on other markets is futile. The other markets exist because they deliver niche or localized features, but gox is the market that determines the price.

+1 on the orderbook not telling the true story, however.

Intersango-GBP is often better than MtGox-GBP. Sometimes MtGox USD is better even with the conversion rate but not always.

The truth is that MtGox-USD accounts for less than 50% of the whole market.

I think maybe part of the USD market on gox is "cross-posted" to the other currency markets?

I overlayed the 2 orderbooks (EUR, USD). Look how similar the ask-side is comparing USD and EUR markets:



That can't be a coincidence.

EDIT: magicaltux just cleared this up:

<molecular> are the different currency markets on mtGox really _one_ market? In the sense that orders are being "cross-posted"?
<MagicalTux> molecular: orders are cross posted with an extra 2.5%
<MagicalTux> it's automatic and without delay

[muyuu]

Intersango-GBP is often better than MtGox-GBP. Sometimes MtGox USD is better even with the conversion rate but not always.

The truth is that MtGox-USD accounts for less than 50% of the whole market.

I think maybe part of the USD market on gox is "cross-posted" to the other currency markets?

I overlayed the 2 orderbooks (EUR, USD). Look how similar the ask-side is comparing USD and EUR markets:



That can't be a coincidence.

EDIT: magicaltux just cleared this up:

<molecular> are the different currency markets on mtGox really _one_ market? In the sense that orders are being "cross-posted"?
<MagicalTux> molecular: orders are cross posted with an extra 2.5%
<MagicalTux> it's automatic and without delay

Sure they do. However volume is not calculated by looking at the order book, but at the traded volume. The extra 2.5% (any %) means order are matched preferably in the same market and then in a different one only if arbitrage is possible. This happens anyway between MtGox and other exchanges thanks to arbitrage bots. Which guarantees that the proportion of traded volumes almost perfectly matches the proportions of liquidity in every different market.

The most share MtGox ever had is what they advertise in their site (around 80% in the peak of the bubble last year, July 2011). Since then they've lost share and now they are somewhere around 40%-60%.

The whole point being that there are no less than 600-700K BTC until 1$, maybe a lot more, and the only way you can create a drop below that is by inducing panic sales and thus the collaboration of a significant number of players.