100 satoshi = 1$ when?

[Lorenzo]

A long time ago: 1 bitcoin for 1/10/100/1000 dollar was too IMPOSSIBLE, so said people.. 

In order for the value of 100 satoshis to equal the purchasing power of $1 USD today, the price of a single bitcoin would have to reach $1 million. That means that Bitcoin itself would need to have a market cap of $21 trillion. Such a large market cap would only be possible if Bitcoin replaced all fiat currencies everywhere in the world. That means there would be no USD, no CNY, no JPY, no GBP, no EUR, etc. This is the best case scenario for Bitcoin and it's also one that Hal Finney even considered and hypothesized about back in 2009 during his conversations with Satoshi:

So the possibility of generating coins today with a few cents of compute time may be quite a good bet, with a payoff of something like 100 million to 1! Even if the odds of Bitcoin succeeding to this degree are slim, are they really 100 million to one against? Something to think about...

However, it's also far from straightforward. It's easy to go from a $1,000 market cap to a $1 million one or even a $1 million market cap to a $1 billion one but it's much, much harder to go from a $1 billion market cap to a $1 trillion one despite the increase in magnitude being the same.

How many businesses with >1 billion dollar market caps do you know of? I'm sure you can think of many. Now ask yourself the same question but with >1 trillion dollar market caps instead. If Bitcoin does ever end up overtaking all national fiat currencies, then we will eventually see coins worth $1 million. But you can't really compare the step up from $1 to $1,000 with the step up from $1,000 to $1 million. They're two completely different things.

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[Cconvert2G36]

1BTC=$1,000,000?

This is called tail risk.

1BTC=$0

Is the other tail, and it's a fattish tail.

[Q7]

I will never even think of that. An global economic collapse although would, to a certain degree make people realize about finding an alternative way to store their wealth, but before that, bitcoin needs to first solve its own internal problem to make sure that it meets this criteria. Volatility in the price right now that points to more downward pattern is creating all the negative sentiment. So let's try to be more realistic here.

[Amph]

I will never even think of that. An global economic collapse although would, to a certain degree make people realize about finding an alternative way to store their wealth, but before that, bitcoin needs to first solve its own internal problem to make sure that it meets this criteria. Volatility in the price right now that points to more downward pattern is creating all the negative sentiment. So let's try to be more realistic here.

bitcoin can reach this crazy value without waiting the collapsing of fiat money or other stocks, but it is not a thing that you can build in 6 years only, when the software is still in beta, the current price trend is not a real indicator of the future, it could fall to sub 200 for rising even stronger after that

[bittyfree]

If 100 satoshis = 1$, then the transaction fees will be 100$...
0.0001 = 10000 satoshis = 100$

[tokeweed]

This is the speculation forum so lets speculate.

When the next big crash happens like the 2008 crash people will realize how much the current system is broken. They will go to bitcoin. 100 satoshi = 1$ by the year 2018.

It will come sooner than you think.  Buy now.

[Lorenzo]

if economic crisis happen, people would go to precious metal like gold
gold price will skyrocket if economic crisis happen
bitcoin will get attention from people if many people think bitcoin is safe haven for their wealth

There are arguments for and against this. Many people tend to pull their money away from risky and speculative investments towards "safer" investments when the economy is in crisis.

bitcoin can reach this crazy value without waiting the collapsing of fiat money or other stocks, but it is not a thing that you can build in 6 years only, when the software is still in beta, the current price trend is not a real indicator of the future, it could fall to sub 200 for rising even stronger after that

Agreed, although Bitcoin is in a protracted beta phase so it's not really comparable to an actual beta product. I suspect this is the case due to philosophical rather than technical reasons.

If 100 satoshis = 1$, then the transaction fees will be 100$...
0.0001 = 10000 satoshis = 100$

The transaction fee is set by miners. If/when 100 satoshis are worth a dollar, miners will be accustomed to accepting transactions containing fees much smaller than the typical 0.0001-0.0005 BTC amounts we see today. The default transaction fee used by clients can also be adjusted as the value of Bitcoin grows. It has been changed in the reference client at least two times before.

[minerpumpkin]

I will never even think of that. An global economic collapse although would, to a certain degree make people realize about finding an alternative way to store their wealth, but before that, bitcoin needs to first solve its own internal problem to make sure that it meets this criteria. Volatility in the price right now that points to more downward pattern is creating all the negative sentiment. So let's try to be more realistic here.

bitcoin can reach this crazy value without waiting the collapsing of fiat money or other stocks, but it is not a thing that you can build in 6 years only, when the software is still in beta, the current price trend is not a real indicator of the future, it could fall to sub 200 for rising even stronger after that

I guess you are pretty spot on. I believe the reason many people are 'waiting for' or counting on a global collapse of the economies is that they believe Bitcoin may profit from such a collapse in a remarkable way - which may be true, actually. People would be looking for alternative ways to store their wealth.