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Author Topic: Global economy has made a disappointing start to 2015  (Read 1138 times)
yellowpage09
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April 24, 2015, 02:13:19 AM
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Business surveys released today suggest that the world's four largest economies slowed in April. But global growth has not collapsed.

The US Markit manufacturing PMI fell in April, possibly reflecting the headwind from the stronger dollar. Meanwhile, the euro-zone manufacturing and composite PMIs fell in April but remain well above their level in the second half of last year.

The further fall in China's manufacturing PMI for April suggests that the recent weakness of its economy goes beyond temporary distortions due to the late timing of Chinese New Year. In Japan, things have gone from bad to worse. The headline manufacturing PMI fell for a third consecutive month in April, to its lowest level since the immediate aftermath of last year's sales tax hike. This suggests that the weakness in Japan in the first quarter has persisted into Q2.

"The global economy has made a disappointing start to 2015. But looser monetary policy combined with the boost from lower oil prices (and improved weather in the US) should mean that the world as a whole grows by around 3½% this year, a similar pace to that in 2014." says Capital Economics in a report

(Source: http://fxwire.pro/Global-economy-has-made-a-disappointing-start-to-2015-28803)
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April 24, 2015, 03:21:05 AM
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The peasants aren't plowing the field fast enough? Oh noes! What is the ruling elite to do?

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Miracal
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April 24, 2015, 08:44:43 AM
 #3

I think 2015 is a tough year! Greece is falling in the debt hole. Russia and Iran is sanctioned. Declining commodity prices will affect oil producing and other mining countries.
http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2014/12/4-expert-predictions-for-the-global-economy-in-2015/384061/
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April 24, 2015, 09:58:14 AM
 #4

The Oil price and the quantitative easing program of the ECB, are some of the reasons why we are seeing this decline in the global economy. This will be with us for a while, but things in the USA are slowly turning in the right direction. Source : https://www.conference-board.org/data/globaloutlook/

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April 27, 2015, 06:21:27 AM
 #5

The Economic Outlook for 2015 isn't looking that bad. The overall global real GDP growth average is projected to be 3-3,5% which is better then 2014 (2,6%) and 2013 (2,5%). The problems are Russia-Ukraine issue and overall declines in Euro area, Japan, and Brazil. But the upside is coming from USA India and Mexico. But overall predictions for this year are better then the previous years despite first few slow months.
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April 27, 2015, 07:47:44 AM
 #6

it seems that every years is getting worse, now with ISIS bitcoin will suffer too, because they are using it as a payment, which mean more dumping

euro is falling, while usd gained something, so not everything seems to decline
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April 27, 2015, 09:55:08 AM
 #7

The peasants aren't plowing the field fast enough? Oh noes! What is the ruling elite to do?

raise taxes

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April 27, 2015, 01:51:07 PM
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it seems that every years is getting worse, now with ISIS bitcoin will suffer too, because they are using it as a payment, which mean more dumping

euro is falling, while usd gained something, so not everything seems to decline

Now? Anything new with ISIS? I should've missed
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April 27, 2015, 02:28:11 PM
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The peasants aren't plowing the field fast enough? Oh noes! What is the ruling elite to do?
raise taxes

inflate their currency Cheesy

---

Economic forecasts are not useful at all, because the margin of error is extremely high (apparently that's not criticized often, because absolute numbers are always very low). How often have forecasts met expectations in the past? I have the feeling there's always surprise on the downside ("disappointment"). Possibly because positive economic forecasts are used as a psychological tool to encourage economic activity.

The current fiat system depends on growth. Not simply linear, but exponential growth (= growth of growth), because it is based on debt money. But in a world of limited resources, growth can not go on exponentially forever. We are now entering a phase where this becomes apparent. Of course the current actors of the fiat system have to play their role and pretend that there's no problem. But they can't escape the laws of nature.

ya.ya.yo!
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April 27, 2015, 04:25:03 PM
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inflate their currency Cheesy

---

Economic forecasts are not useful at all, because the margin of error is extremely high (apparently that's not criticized often, because absolute numbers are always very low). How often have forecasts met expectations in the past? I have the feeling there's always surprise on the downside ("disappointment"). Possibly because positive economic forecasts are used as a psychological tool to encourage economic activity.

The current fiat system depends on growth. Not simply linear, but exponential growth (= growth of growth), because it is based on debt money. But in a world of limited resources, growth can not go on exponentially forever. We are now entering a phase where this becomes apparent. Of course the current actors of the fiat system have to play their role and pretend that there's no problem. But they can't escape the laws of nature.

ya.ya.yo!

Economic growth is one way to bail out inflated currency.  Another way (and this helps only "core" currencies like USD and EUR) is the imperial system that forces developing countries to accept Western paper and ship us real goods at cheap prices.  This is sometimes done with the political and military influence of the West, but most of the time it's done through the "exorbitant privilege" of reserve currencies that basically makes developing countries suffer most of the financial instability and economic pain of Western currency inflation.

No, the world is not fair.  But while this process protects Western currencies from crashing totally, it might not be enough to bring demand back to "normal" after a big financial bust like the Great Depression and the 2008 crisis.

The longer things drag on in this muddling-through mode, the more likely the Western elites will be forced to peg currency again to gold, bitcoin or some other cryptocurrency, at a very high price, in order to give themselves the financial room to push stimulus more aggressively.  This would basically amount to a cancellation of past debt and starting afresh with paper currency.  Of course, they will not announce this intention until the very last minute.  (For this to be done with a cryptocurrency, I imagine the price of bitcoin first has to go high and stay there for a while.)
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April 27, 2015, 04:36:57 PM
 #11

it seems that every years is getting worse, now with ISIS bitcoin will suffer too, because they are using it as a payment, which mean more dumping

euro is falling, while usd gained something, so not everything seems to decline

Yes it is true that every year finance is getting worse but is that true that ISIS using bitcoin to do their payment things? I dont think ISIS even care about this bitcoin things. They just going to kidnap people again and again to make our finance falling down

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April 27, 2015, 06:13:44 PM
 #12

it seems that every years is getting worse, now with ISIS bitcoin will suffer too, because they are using it as a payment, which mean more dumping

euro is falling, while usd gained something, so not everything seems to decline

Yes it is true that every year finance is getting worse but is that true that ISIS using bitcoin to do their payment things? I dont think ISIS even care about this bitcoin things. They just going to kidnap people again and again to make our finance falling down

nothing confirmed, but i don't think it's a fake news, looks here or any other random news about it on google

http://rt.com/usa/227703-bitcoin-isis-us-fundraising/

and terrorist will not hold for sure..they will dump asap their payment
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April 28, 2015, 06:19:51 PM
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The global economy can only get worse, this is just propaganda.

These economists do not take into account the social, geopolitical and environmental issues in the planet.

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April 29, 2015, 12:26:53 PM
 #14

it seems that every years is getting worse, now with ISIS bitcoin will suffer too, because they are using it as a payment, which mean more dumping

euro is falling, while usd gained something, so not everything seems to decline

Yes it is true that every year finance is getting worse but is that true that ISIS using bitcoin to do their payment things? I dont think ISIS even care about this bitcoin things. They just going to kidnap people again and again to make our finance falling down

nothing confirmed, but i don't think it's a fake news, looks here or any other random news about it on google

http://rt.com/usa/227703-bitcoin-isis-us-fundraising/

and terrorist will not hold for sure..they will dump asap their payment

I dont think they are stupid enough to dump right now because the price can still higher than this and of course they will need it to buy their things so may be they will save it for now. Hope they dump in a right time when bitcoin price is skyrocketing Grin, so at least we can make some profit

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April 29, 2015, 05:17:02 PM
 #15

it seems that every years is getting worse, now with ISIS bitcoin will suffer too, because they are using it as a payment, which mean more dumping

euro is falling, while usd gained something, so not everything seems to decline

you shouldnt be too pessimistic here. its not as if silkroad was non-existent there will always be some form of illegal transactions used with bitcoin, thats pretty much given based on human history.

you see that not only in bitcoin, but in fiat money as well, so I dont get your point.
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April 29, 2015, 07:22:00 PM
 #16

it seems that every years is getting worse, now with ISIS bitcoin will suffer too, because they are using it as a payment, which mean more dumping

euro is falling, while usd gained something, so not everything seems to decline

you shouldnt be too pessimistic here. its not as if silkroad was non-existent there will always be some form of illegal transactions used with bitcoin, thats pretty much given based on human history.

you see that not only in bitcoin, but in fiat money as well, so I dont get your point.
This is common that people are being pessimistic about economy everytime we don't see any rapid economic growth, there is nothing wrong with a little economic stagnation. And that news with ISIS using bitcoin as payment method is overhyped by the media and everybody are repeating this over and over again. And we don't know the scale of this. It is probably much less than we expect.
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April 29, 2015, 10:37:09 PM
 #17

it seems that every years is getting worse, now with ISIS bitcoin will suffer too, because they are using it as a payment, which mean more dumping

euro is falling, while usd gained something, so not everything seems to decline

you shouldnt be too pessimistic here. its not as if silkroad was non-existent there will always be some form of illegal transactions used with bitcoin, thats pretty much given based on human history.

you see that not only in bitcoin, but in fiat money as well, so I dont get your point.
This is common that people are being pessimistic about economy everytime we don't see any rapid economic growth, there is nothing wrong with a little economic stagnation. And that news with ISIS using bitcoin as payment method is overhyped by the media and everybody are repeating this over and over again. And we don't know the scale of this. It is probably much less than we expect.

I feel like this whole labeling ISIS is more of a political play for the longest time, keep on labeling things as terrorists.

I just saw a documentary on Vice not long ago on how terrorists are recruited and its often their own farmers since they cant even make money from their land. Forced to join, but it showed how poor they really are.

Id assume the main bitcoin ISIS users would be the people who are at the top selling these guns to neighboring countries.

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May 01, 2015, 02:45:32 AM
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Fuck the statistics. Act freely. Use the blue market.



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