And it begins

[afbitcoins]

Is an ETF good for bitcoin? I feel no it is not. Long term will be harmful to bitcoin in fact. Yes in the short term it may instigate a bull run. (It may even be a staggeringly big one) However longer term ETFs will be used to manipulate and suppress price and counter the threat to govt fiat and dampen enthusiasm.

Its not hard to see the parallel. Just as in gold and silver markets, investors are herded into paper shares ie GLD and SLV ETFs the same will become true with bitcoin. But if the ETF is not honest about increasing its own reserves why people buy the ETF then the reality is that that investment money did not reduce bitcoin supply and therefore does not put pressure on price to rise.

In my idealistic vision of bitcoin, people would own real bitcoin and not any derivatives of bitcoin which are in reality a means to control the market

Auditing Bitcoin is fairly easy. Auditing gold is very, very hard. A Bitcoin ETF can simply put a bit of data on their website to all but prove their reserves to everyone. Besides relying on a third-party audit, which can be gamed if the government is involved, all a gold ETF can do to persuade people is to put things like gold bar serial numbers up, which of course can be gamed in many ways easily. It's also much easier and much cheaper to take delivery in BTC than gold. I see no reason why people would allow fractional reserve, especially once BTC is easier to hold, and also given all the people who want to hold it in other countries, don't want US juridictional risk, etc.

Even assuming the worst case scenario where no one ends up caring and the ETFs operate on 10x reserve, it can at most reduce "the moon" by tenfold. $100,000 per coin instead of a $1 million. Realistically it's quite a bit less, since it's not like everyone in the world is going to buy the ETF instead of actual coins. But an ETF accounting for a huge amount of the base BTC supply itself implies a great jump in adoption, from which we could already expect a 10x in the price easily.

So I think worst case, with the assistance of corrupt auditors and government complicity, they might be able to hold back a year or two of gains. After that, fractional reserve has its limits, especially as Bitcoin gains more market uses so that people actually need to withdraw it.

Hi Zanglebert Thanks for that reply, thats quite reassuring. I thought about the transparency aspect a bit more after writing original version of my comment. In a way I'm not sure why people would buy an etf for bitcoin, I guess some people are just conditioned to do all their investing via one vehicle ie whatever sharebroker they like to use or something. To me I can't help thinking that surely if you are competent enough to buy share in an ETF is not really harder to buy some actual bitcoin.

ps nice to see you on the forums, feels like ages since we chewed the fat.

[Nagle]

it seems that the most btc providers are expanding their business operations.

New ones are replacing the old, failed ones. Overall activity doesn't seem to be up.

[ErisDiscordia]

good.

not a single fuck is given.

I sure hope you know when to fold before you get wiped out. Don't let your fetish for bears be your denial of changing times when it comes.

why do people keep saying that to me, when I am making like 1000 % in profits from it?

why dont you, for a change, do your own business? 

You are continuously posting bearish predictions in a rather arrogant way on a bitcoin forum. why would you do that if you didn't want any reaction?

[ssmc2]

good.

not a single fuck is given.

I sure hope you know when to fold before you get wiped out. Don't let your fetish for bears be your denial of changing times when it comes.

why do people keep saying that to me, when I am making like 1000 % in profits from it?

why dont you, for a change, do your own business? 

You are continuously posting bearish predictions in a rather arrogant way on a bitcoin forum. why would you do that if you didn't want any reaction?

You'll have to forgive him. He intuitively knows his days of shorting are numbered. Hence the bitchiness

[goxed]

...This is probably what caused that spike on btc-e a few days ago.

What's causing the continuous downward slide for the past year and a half tho?

some TA to keep you occupied, while bulls get ready
http://www.newsbtc.com/2015/04/29/bitcoin-technical-analysis-for-2942015-collapse-expected/

No offense meant, but that's some terrible analysis.

yup, that post was supposed to reek of sarcasm, need to up my game

[andy35]

it seems that the most btc providers are expanding their business operations.

New ones are replacing the old, failed ones. Overall activity doesn't seem to be up.

Bitstamp's not expanding, its doing less business since the hack.

[goxed]

Is an ETF good for bitcoin? I feel no it is not. Long term will be harmful to bitcoin in fact. Yes in the short term it may instigate a bull run. (It may even be a staggeringly big one) However longer term ETFs will be used to manipulate and suppress price and counter the threat to govt fiat and dampen enthusiasm.

Its not hard to see the parallel. Just as in gold and silver markets, investors are herded into paper shares ie GLD and SLV ETFs the same will become true with bitcoin. But if the ETF is not honest about increasing its own reserves why people buy the ETF then the reality is that that investment money did not reduce bitcoin supply and therefore does not put pressure on price to rise.

In my idealistic vision of bitcoin, people would own real bitcoin and not any derivatives of bitcoin which are in reality a means to control the market

Auditing Bitcoin is fairly easy. Auditing gold is very, very hard. A Bitcoin ETF can simply put a bit of data on their website to all but prove their reserves to everyone. Besides relying on a third-party audit, which can be gamed if the government is involved, all a gold ETF can do to persuade people is to put things like gold bar serial numbers up, which of course can be gamed in many ways easily. It's also much easier and much cheaper to take delivery in BTC than gold. I see no reason why people would allow fractional reserve, especially once BTC is easier to hold, and also given all the people who want to hold it in other countries, don't want US juridictional risk, etc.

Even assuming the worst case scenario where no one ends up caring and the ETFs operate on 10x reserve, it can at most reduce "the moon" by tenfold. $100,000 per coin instead of a $1 million. Realistically it's quite a bit less, since it's not like everyone in the world is going to buy the ETF instead of actual coins. But an ETF accounting for a huge amount of the base BTC supply itself implies a great jump in adoption, from which we could already expect a 10x in the price easily.

So I think worst case, with the assistance of corrupt auditors and government complicity, they might be able to hold back a year or two of gains. After that, fractional reserve has its limits, especially as Bitcoin gains more market uses so that people actually need to withdraw it.

Hi Zanglebert Thanks for that reply, thats quite reassuring. I thought about the transparency aspect a bit more after writing original version of my comment. In a way I'm not sure why people would buy an etf for bitcoin, I guess some people are just conditioned to do all their investing via one vehicle ie whatever sharebroker they like to use or something. To me I can't help thinking that surely if you are competent enough to buy share in an ETF is not really harder to buy some actual bitcoin.

ps nice to see you on the forums, feels like ages since we chewed the fat.

Arrival of ZB is usually a bullish signal.

[Wary]

http://www.bloomberg.com/research/markets/news/article.asp?docKey=600-201504290300HUGIN___EUPRX____HUG1916185-1

The world just got a much easier way to invest in bitcoin. The 2nd half of may is going to be very very interesting.

p.s. This is probably what caused that spike on btc-e a few days ago.

Is it the same as the COIN? The entrance for the Wall-Street money we've been waiting for almost 2 years?
Then where is the money and the rally? What is missing in the picture?
It's not real ETF? Or the Nasdaq Stockholm is not real stock exchange?

What's the catch?

EDIT: Ok, it's still 19 days to go, the gate for the Wall Street billions is not open yet. But where are the front-runners?

[tarmi]

good.

not a single fuck is given.

I sure hope you know when to fold before you get wiped out. Don't let your fetish for bears be your denial of changing times when it comes.

why do people keep saying that to me, when I am making like 1000 % in profits from it?

why dont you, for a change, do your own business? 

You are continuously posting bearish predictions in a rather arrogant way on a bitcoin forum. why would you do that if you didn't want any reaction?

I dont mind.

but if the best you can do is "you are going bankrupt soon"...well, then I know I am on the right path.

[Hyena]

It starts trading on the 18th of May. Is it going to be huge? Perhaps worthy of having its own countdown?

[Bit_Happy]

http://www.bloomberg.com/research/markets/news/article.asp?docKey=600-201504290300HUGIN___EUPRX____HUG1916185-1

The world just got a much easier way to invest in bitcoin. The 2nd half of may is going to be very very interesting.

p.s. This is probably what caused that spike on btc-e a few days ago.

"Alexander Marsh, Chief Executive Officer of XBT Provider, says: "We are proud to offer the world's first "Bitcoin tracker" to be traded on a regulated exchange. By enabling this easy and secure way to invest in Bitcoin we hope to have eliminated the boundaries that earlier prevented individuals and companies from being able to actively invest in what we believe to be the future of money."

Bitcoin Tracker One is designed to provide investors with convenient access to the returns of the underlying asset, U.S. dollar (USD) per bitcoin, less investor fees. Bitcoin Tracker One is authorized by Sweden's financial supervisory authority, Finansinspektionen, and will be admitted to trading on Nasdaq Stockholm. The first day of trading is expected to be May 18th, 2015. "


Glad to see such good news, just a few moments after logging in today. 

[Alley]

It starts trading on the 18th of May. Is it going to be huge? Perhaps worthy of having its own countdown?

Lets say a mere $10 million gets invested in the first week.  Which is peanuts in this industry.  40 thousand coins would have to be bought on the open market to cover the shares.  Seems almost too good to be true as this would increase the price 10 fold.

[kwukduck]

Oh Lord... this ship will sink even faster than expected now. With this exchange all the hacked and scammed coins can be dumped much faster. Prepare for free fall..

[lebing]

Oh Lord... this ship will sink even faster than expected now. With this exchange all the hacked and scammed coins can be dumped much faster. Prepare for free fall..

The desperation is strong with this one.

[kwukduck]

Oh Lord... this ship will sink even faster than expected now. With this exchange all the hacked and scammed coins can be dumped much faster. Prepare for free fall..

The desperation is strong with this one.

yada yada. People have lost interest in magic money a long time ago. Just try to talk to friends and family about it and you'll get laughed at.
As we calculated there are roughly 1.2 million btc waiting to be dumped by hackers and scam artists. This pressure is beyond anything even a big group of bitcoin fanatics can negate.

[fonzie]

Oh Lord... this ship will sink even faster than expected now. With this exchange all the hacked and scammed coins can be dumped much faster. Prepare for free fall..

The desperation is strong with this one.

yada yada. People have lost interest in magic money a long time ago. Just try to talk to friends and family about it and you'll get laughed at.
As we calculated there are roughly 1.2 million btc waiting to be dumped by hackers and scam artists. This pressure is beyond anything even a big group of bitcoin fanatics can negate.

kwukduck, i really appreaciate your analysis. What is your opinion about the future price
development in the next 2 weeks= Will we ss sub 100 this fast?

[ssmc2]

^^ lmao at these two. A legendary status troll and his sidekick. 

[darlidada]

Threads like these make me happy. I realize that there are still way too many bulls and market has not capitulated yet. We still have some time to accumulate more coins! yay!

[Alley]

Sounds like 3 weeks at most for cheap coins.

[goxed]

Oh Lord... this ship will sink even faster than expected now. With this exchange all the hacked and scammed coins can be dumped much faster. Prepare for free fall..

The desperation is strong with this one.

yada yada. People have lost interest in magic money a long time ago. Just try to talk to friends and family about it and you'll get laughed at.
As we calculated there are roughly 1.2 million btc waiting to be dumped by hackers and scam artists. This pressure is beyond anything even a big group of bitcoin fanatics can negate.

Gives credence to the theory of an alternate universe.