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Author Topic: Bitpredict Update Thread  (Read 11475 times)
kiba
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December 03, 2010, 08:43:41 AM
 #41

I started working on bitpredict's user registration and user login/user sessions and the whole nine yard that come with setting up an account system.

I will come up with an accountless system for those who are too lazy to register.

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Hal
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December 04, 2010, 01:06:18 AM
 #42

I've played the Foresight Exchange play-money prediction market at ideosphere.com since 1995. It would be great to see a Bitcoin version. The way it works is you create a "claim", which is a prediction that might or might not come true. Normally these have a due date for when they'll be judged. You also name another player as the judge. The claim creator can bet on the claim but the judge can't.

Once the claim is created people can offer to buy "yes" or "no" shares at prices ranging from 0.00 to 1.00, which can be thought of as the probability that the claim will come true. When a pair of yes and no offering prices match, a pair of shares are created and given to the bidders, while their accounts of FX$ play money are decreased.

At the due date the claim is judged. If it is true, owners of YES shares are payed off at FX$1.00 per share, and if false, owners of NO shares receive similar payoffs.

It's pretty impressive that the game has gone on so long. Many of the claims will not come due for decades into the future. I think this game could be a good model for a real money version based on Bitcoin.

Hal Finney
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December 04, 2010, 01:29:51 AM
 #43

I've played the Foresight Exchange play-money prediction market at ideosphere.com since 1995. It would be great to see a Bitcoin version. The way it works is you create a "claim", which is a prediction that might or might not come true. Normally these have a due date for when they'll be judged. You also name another player as the judge. The claim creator can bet on the claim but the judge can't.

Once the claim is created people can offer to buy "yes" or "no" shares at prices ranging from 0.00 to 1.00, which can be thought of as the probability that the claim will come true. When a pair of yes and no offering prices match, a pair of shares are created and given to the bidders, while their accounts of FX$ play money are decreased.

At the due date the claim is judged. If it is true, owners of YES shares are payed off at FX$1.00 per share, and if false, owners of NO shares receive similar payoffs.

It's pretty impressive that the game has gone on so long. Many of the claims will not come due for decades into the future. I think this game could be a good model for a real money version based on Bitcoin.

Sounds like intrade.com with the addition of user created claims. This is exactly what I want to see. Add the possibility of multiple judges and it sounds perfect.

It isn't really possible to forbid judges from betting unless you are going to ID people and background check and worse since you'll need to make sure people's brother in laws don't bet for them by proxy etc...

Multiple judges with small penalties for voting in the minority is the best way to go imo.

Play Bitcoin Poker at sealswithclubs.eu. We're active and open to everyone.
kiba
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December 04, 2010, 07:13:18 AM
 #44


THIS IS WORKING DRAFT:

How it will work:

Each claim have a stock of 1000. People will seed price estimation by deciding how much each of the stock is worth. Each stock can be sold and brought on the market. Each have an end date.

Traders who don't invest in a claim will judge. There can only be 3 of them, they must be elected by majority rule on each side. If possible, bots will judge. Bot don't have feeling, emotions and their code as well data they collect is open to the public for inspection.

The losers' pool get divided up into the winners.

1% of winner pool get divided into the losers.

Meanwhile, the site operator and me get 0.002 for each trade. 0.001 of which will go to the judges.

UPDATE

Still working on old boring registration and session system.

ribuck
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December 04, 2010, 11:43:27 AM
 #45

I've played the Foresight Exchange play-money prediction market at ideosphere.com since 1995.
Me too. Foresight exchange is great (despite its clunky interface), and if there was a similar Bitcoin-based service I'd use it.
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December 04, 2010, 11:45:34 AM
 #46

Each claim have a stock of 1000.
Foresight Exchange works well with unlimited stock. Whenever there's a matching bid and offer, a new betting pair is created for that claim.
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December 04, 2010, 06:51:50 PM
 #47

Each claim have a stock of 1000.
Foresight Exchange works well with unlimited stock. Whenever there's a matching bid and offer, a new betting pair is created for that claim.

Picking an arbitrary number is not necessary. Every amount bet on the YES side needs to be matched with an amount bet on NO. If nobody will take the NO side you can't have 1000 units of yes. But if there are plenty of units of NO you might have 2000 or 10000 or whatever.

Play Bitcoin Poker at sealswithclubs.eu. We're active and open to everyone.
kiba
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December 06, 2010, 08:41:57 PM
 #48

I am please to announce that I am able to access bitpredict's VPS again thanks to aceat64.

kiba
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December 12, 2010, 04:58:09 AM
 #49

I created a rudimentary registration system. Not sure sessions work.

So I am working on prediction stuff.

kiba
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December 13, 2010, 08:34:14 AM
 #50

Update:

I created two models; prediction and bid.

Prediction data: title, description, and by date.

Bid: PredictId, UserId, txn.

I also added a funds attribute to users.

Once the rudimentary detail is done, I'll work on a script to upload site to aceat64's server so that I can test it with a few people.

kiba
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December 14, 2010, 04:12:58 AM
 #51

A little update:

Worked on making sure you can't get a negative balance in your funds in your user account.

Barely got started on bid spec test.

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December 14, 2010, 09:25:26 PM
 #52

Quickie update for today:

I got some of the bid data model set up. Mainly, it hold data relating to the prediction data, and the user data.

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December 17, 2010, 05:57:04 AM
 #53

I am having trouble with bid and user.funds checking. However, there's still a bunch of work elsewhere such as creating a CSS file for the site, so I did that in absence of progress.

kiba
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December 18, 2010, 03:35:59 AM
 #54

Doh. It's my bid spec that's causing problem. Still, the easiest route to progress as well necessary anyway is to work on the site layout. Now it have a blue background.

kiba
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December 20, 2010, 11:36:21 PM
 #55

Latest update...I am getting close to a proof of concept. User funds are getting subtracted; bids are linked to prediction and user...

Next step is to work on all the forms so people can submit predictions, and people can buy bids...


kiba
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December 24, 2010, 12:09:33 AM
 #56

Today's Update: I find myself creating a lot of missing pages after working the model for quite a bit.

I also realize at this moment that I forgot the crucial details on how to manage and rate judges.

kiba
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December 26, 2010, 07:08:51 AM
 #57

I was working on the ability to make predictions.

kiba
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December 28, 2010, 06:21:59 AM
 #58

Today, I worked on something non-essential called...the footer. Should be focusing my effort on getting a proof of concept working rather than..ya know...wasting time on footer.

kiba
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December 28, 2010, 08:00:36 PM
 #59

I made it my goal to work on and fix up prediction creations. Then I got distracted by the fact that I didn't have a logout mechanism. So I fix that.

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December 29, 2010, 03:29:19 PM
 #60

Would it be enough to allow bitcoin to include conditional transaction to create a prediction market? The conditional transactions then would consist of a normal transaction with a condition attached to it. The condition could be a prediction, like "silver will hit XX/ounce on AA/BB/CCCC". The nodes would have to verify the outcome of the condition, to know whether the coins are transfered or not. So if someone spends the conditionally received coins, he may have to add a large fee to motivate nodes to verify the outcome of the condition.
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