10PHs in 1 day vs 1PHs in 10 days

[SEnergy]

what has higher chances of finding a block?

[1715408175]

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[1715408175]

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[jl2012]

what has higher chances of finding a block?

Same assuming consistent difficulty

[satashito]

A block?
10 Phs has higher chance.

[unholycactus]

what has higher chances of finding a block?

Same assuming consistent difficulty

Yes.

If the difficulty is increasing, mining faster over a short period of time is better.
If the difficulty is decreasing, mining over a longer period slowly is better.

[philipma1957]

what has higher chances of finding a block?

complicated.  I would argue  the variables are more complex then the question is.

I would prefer the 10 day 1 ph approach. As with this much hash 2, 3, 4, 5 blocks could be hit.

10 ph in a day  may burn up so quickly you lose out on multiple blocks chance.

 Also as others have said flat vs decreasing vs increasing hash rates.

How about a 10 day session gives you more time to see a mistake if one was made.

Also renting 10 ph will push the rental price up

renting 1 ph may not push the rental price up.

A 10 ph rental may attract a ddos attack due to its very big size.

[TheRealSteve]

rental pricing, hardware wear&tear, mobsters coming to take your 10ph away (ha-ha! to the funny farm...), etc. don't factor into the question as asked, though.

If the question is limited to "what has higher chances of finding a block?", then jl2012 touches on the only key variable: the difficulty.  Provided the difficulty is the same in both time periods, then the statistical odds are practically the same.
The 'X in 10 Days' does have a higher likelihood of encountering a difficulty change (up or down), but then it's back to speculating which of those it is; at which point any speculation (including the aforementioned) is game, and OP's question would change fundamentally.

[notlist3d]

what has higher chances of finding a block?

Same assuming consistent difficulty

In perfect world this would be true.  But if you do all in a day, your risk is greater as it's not spread out over the 10 day's assuming dealing with pool with luck and same difficulty.

But with 10 day's you are actually spreading out you chance of finding block.  So less possibility of a bad streak ruining profits.   You can have the average luck based on 10 day's instead off 1. 

So same ... yes.  But if doing one day you are betting a lot of you having good luck with that rental.

[alh]

So the short summary is:

"In theory there is no difference between 10PH/day or 10x 1PH/day"

"In practice there may be a discernible difference based on a bunch of other factors beside Bitcoin probabilities"

[mrhelpful]

I rather have 1 phs, since in theory both results vary based on constant difficulty right.

The reason I`d have a smaller performance is the investment risk, so I can buy bitcoin at the same time as it drops more. I rather have more purchasing power in fiat while doing both.

[jl2012]

what has higher chances of finding a block?

Same assuming consistent difficulty

In perfect world this would be true.  But if you do all in a day, your risk is greater as it's not spread out over the 10 day's assuming dealing with pool with luck and same difficulty.

But with 10 day's you are actually spreading out you chance of finding block.  So less possibility of a bad streak ruining profits.   You can have the average luck based on 10 day's instead off 1. 

So same ... yes.  But if doing one day you are betting a lot of you having good luck with that rental.

This is Gambler's fallacy

[crazyivan]

It s hard to answer this one, it would depend on difficulty, pool luck, uptime, etc.

I would go with 10 PHS.

[jonnybravo0311]

Speculation over rental prices, pool luck, etc really has no bearing on the question.  Generating 10PH/s in 24 hours, or that same 10PH/s over 240 hours ends up giving you the same number of hashes, and therefore the same number of chances of finding a block.

At the current difficulty, you'd expect to find a block every 5.684 hours with 10PH/s.
At the current difficulty, you'd expect to find a block every 56.84 hours with 1PH/s.

Whichever way you slice it, at the end of the hashing period, you'd expect to find 4.22 blocks, given the difficulty remains the same.

[notlist3d]

what has higher chances of finding a block?

Same assuming consistent difficulty

In perfect world this would be true.  But if you do all in a day, your risk is greater as it's not spread out over the 10 day's assuming dealing with pool with luck and same difficulty.

But with 10 day's you are actually spreading out you chance of finding block.  So less possibility of a bad streak ruining profits.   You can have the average luck based on 10 day's instead off 1. 

So same ... yes.  But if doing one day you are betting a lot of you having good luck with that rental.

This is Gambler's fallacy

Which part are you saying is a fallacy that they are equal?

On  a pool paying with luck based, 10 days is much much safer then 1 day of 10 ph.

[philipma1957]

Speculation over rental prices, pool luck, etc really has no bearing on the question.  Generating 10PH/s in 24 hours, or that same 10PH/s over 240 hours ends up giving you the same number of hashes, and therefore the same number of chances of finding a block.

At the current difficulty, you'd expect to find a block every 5.684 hours with 10PH/s.
At the current difficulty, you'd expect to find a block every 56.84 hours with 1PH/s.

Whichever way you slice it, at the end of the hashing period, you'd expect to find 4.22 blocks, given the difficulty remains the same.

in a perfect world with 0 variables  beyond 10 vs 1 you are correct.

I suspect there will always be variables.  which will make one better then the other.

I just did 100th for 7 days = zip 6 btc put in

I am doing 500th for 1 day =?  4.5 btc put in


@ notlist in a world of many variables that can go wrong or right ie the real world I agree with you

but if you say no to any outside variables  and just  10 x 1 vs 1 x 10

 both = 10

[jonnybravo0311]

Speculation over rental prices, pool luck, etc really has no bearing on the question.  Generating 10PH/s in 24 hours, or that same 10PH/s over 240 hours ends up giving you the same number of hashes, and therefore the same number of chances of finding a block.

At the current difficulty, you'd expect to find a block every 5.684 hours with 10PH/s.
At the current difficulty, you'd expect to find a block every 56.84 hours with 1PH/s.

Whichever way you slice it, at the end of the hashing period, you'd expect to find 4.22 blocks, given the difficulty remains the same.

in a perfect world with 0 variables  beyond 10 vs 1 you are correct.

I suspect there will always be variables.  which will make one better then the other.

I just did 100th for 7 days = zip 6 btc put in

I am doing 500th for 1 day =?  4.5 btc put in


@ notlist in a world of many variables that can go wrong or right ie the real world I agree with you

but if you say no to any outside variables  and just  10 x 1 vs 1 x 10

 both = 10

There are certainly variables that come into play in the real world.  Pool rejecting shares, pool down, hardware failure, software failure, malicious code that prevents block finds being submitted, stratum redirect attacks, DDoS attacks, etc.  All of which will have an effect on your hash rate and the blocks you do/do not find.

Heck, we all see the real-world statistics... in fact the vast majority of us have at one point or another talked about a pool's luck... complaining when it's bad and rejoicing when it's good.

If we look at the pure statistics, your 100TH/s rental for 7 days didn't stand a chance, since at the current difficulty, that 100TH/s would expect to find a block only after 23.6 days.  Yet, I jumped onboard that ship and hoped it might hit pay dirt.  We might have gotten lucky.  We saw a miner do exactly that... hitting 5 blocks in a timeframe in which he should have maybe hit 1.

[philipma1957]

Speculation over rental prices, pool luck, etc really has no bearing on the question.  Generating 10PH/s in 24 hours, or that same 10PH/s over 240 hours ends up giving you the same number of hashes, and therefore the same number of chances of finding a block.

At the current difficulty, you'd expect to find a block every 5.684 hours with 10PH/s.
At the current difficulty, you'd expect to find a block every 56.84 hours with 1PH/s.

Whichever way you slice it, at the end of the hashing period, you'd expect to find 4.22 blocks, given the difficulty remains the same.

in a perfect world with 0 variables  beyond 10 vs 1 you are correct.

I suspect there will always be variables.  which will make one better then the other.

I just did 100th for 7 days = zip 6 btc put in

I am doing 500th for 1 day =?  4.5 btc put in


@ notlist in a world of many variables that can go wrong or right ie the real world I agree with you

but if you say no to any outside variables  and just  10 x 1 vs 1 x 10

 both = 10

There are certainly variables that come into play in the real world.  Pool rejecting shares, pool down, hardware failure, software failure, malicious code that prevents block finds being submitted, stratum redirect attacks, DDoS attacks, etc.  All of which will have an effect on your hash rate and the blocks you do/do not find.

Heck, we all see the real-world statistics... in fact the vast majority of us have at one point or another talked about a pool's luck... complaining when it's bad and rejoicing when it's good.

If we look at the pure statistics, your 100TH/s rental for 7 days didn't stand a chance, since at the current difficulty, that 100TH/s would expect to find a block only after 23.6 days.  Yet, I jumped onboard that ship and hoped it might hit pay dirt.  We might have gotten lucky.  We saw a miner do exactly that... hitting 5 blocks in a timeframe in which he should have maybe hit 1.

no question our math  was 3-4 to 1  10-15 to one on 2 blocks

this new shot math is  6-7 to one   on 1 block 35-50 to 1 on 2 blocks  very rough numbers.

In both cases prices were cheap and you can still do poorly.    you can miss 5 or 6 times in a rwo.

[ajw7989]

I would say having a smaller amount for a longer period of time is better unless you like to gamble. The pool you use for that one day could be lucky or unlucky which would drastically affect your income and profit. Over a longer period of time the luck factor evens out.

[jonnybravo0311]

I would say having a smaller amount for a longer period of time is better unless you like to gamble. The pool you use for that one day could be lucky or unlucky which would drastically affect your income and profit. Over a longer period of time the luck factor evens out.

This is incorrect.  The pool's luck has no bearing whatsoever on your ability to find blocks with your gear.  You might get unlucky and blocks you find are orphaned because of the pool, but the pool's luck is irrelevant.

[alh]

I would say having a smaller amount for a longer period of time is better unless you like to gamble. The pool you use for that one day could be lucky or unlucky which would drastically affect your income and profit. Over a longer period of time the luck factor evens out.

I am pretty sure that in the cases where Phillip rented hash, it was to SOLO mine, possibly using CK's solo mining "pool". The point was to collect virtually all of a 25BTC reward for a block.

[techgeek]

Id ask more of what can I afford to risk, since its based on what you can afford really.

Say you go with the huge performance 10 PHs, question is that can you still continue even if the value drops? lol. As oppose to the other smaller hash performance you can since, its less intial risk and can be made for the loss.

Leverage is just accelerated risk, if its not done right which is the 10 PHs.

[philipma1957]

Id ask more of what can I afford to risk, since its based on what you can afford really.

Say you go with the huge performance 10 PHs, question is that can you still continue even if the value drops? lol. As oppose to the other smaller hash performance you can since, its less intial risk and can be made for the loss.

Leverage is just accelerated risk, if its not done right which is the 10 PHs.

yes this is true.  if I rent 10 ph for 24 hours at a bargain rate (.0095)  say at our current diff of 47b    point it at antpool   I should make a profit.

If I point 1 ph at antpool for 10 days I should profit (.0095) same bargain rate  I should make an identical profit.

That is rate world of 0 variables other then 10 x = 1 x 10

real world the 10 ph rental has almost 0 chance of being (0.0095)  as it is too big and will raise the price = a problem 10 x 1


you will also fuck your share up  since 10+70 = 80 ph  of which you have 10 so your share is ⅛  or .125% x 1 for 1 day

1ph is  1 + 70 = 71 your share is 1/71 x 10 days = 10/71 or 0.140 %  so if the mining is to a pool and not solo  1 ph for 10 days is absolutely better then 10 ph for 1 day. = a really big problem for 10 x 1


So solo may be =.

But shared pool is not =  

so A simple question needs a complex answer.  any shared mining 1 for 10 days will be better.

10 for 1 day needs more analysis.

my bolded statement is something big farms have realized  thus they hardly add hash with more hash.  they swap  higher cost power hash for cheaper  cost  hash.  but don't increase their hash rate.

ie 10th of s-3's swapped  to 10th of s-5 =  8000 watts vs 5200 watts

In our  op's question  10ph is almost  certain to be more costly  then 1 ph over 10 days

[Muhammed Zakir]

Id ask more of what can I afford to risk, since its based on what you can afford really.

Say you go with the huge performance 10 PHs, question is that can you still continue even if the value drops? lol. As oppose to the other smaller hash performance you can since, its less intial risk and can be made for the loss.

Leverage is just accelerated risk, if its not done right which is the 10 PHs.

 -snip-

It is a good calculation and thanks for it but OP is asking which has higher chance of finding a block.

[hedgy73]

Id ask more of what can I afford to risk, since its based on what you can afford really.

Say you go with the huge performance 10 PHs, question is that can you still continue even if the value drops? lol. As oppose to the other smaller hash performance you can since, its less intial risk and can be made for the loss.

Leverage is just accelerated risk, if its not done right which is the 10 PHs.

 -snip-

It is a good calculation and thanks for it but OP is asking which has higher chance of finding a block.

I think philipma1957 is right you have the same chance finding a block mining with 10PH for 1 day as 1PH for 10 days but renting 1PH for 10 days will cost slightly less as you're paying less for the rigs. Assuming that difficulty stays the same over the 10 days of course.

[notlist3d]

If you would have did 1 or 3 days at anotpool it would have been a nice sucess.   

Look at stats: Pool Lucky (24H / 3D / 1W / 2W / 1M / 3M / All Time) : 126.00% / 122.00% / 108.00% / 107.00% / 102.00% / 103.00% / 102.00%

So on 24 hours you could have almost had a 30 percent profit if using nice/westhash.  That is luck but wow.