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Author Topic: PnF TA  (Read 190384 times)
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klee
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June 18, 2015, 08:47:45 AM
 #101

time to sell already ? i cant read the market, im lost Sad

Probably the time to buy. Hold for $315 then sell and go short. Might come down a bit lower so average your buys, not all at once, unless you see < $230, then buy the all the rest you want.

I don't place great odds on this breakout failing to ascend to $300+, but anything is possible.

kLee can probably tell you what your stops should be, in case you want to sell out if we are breaking down heading for $150 again.
Man sorry for disappearing I will try to answer you asap, I have one week to sleep properly with this damn crazy market...

No rush mate. take care of your important business first.
Time for TPTB to establish their power (Bitcoin)? Seems so to me..
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klee
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June 19, 2015, 06:57:37 AM
 #102

http://armstrongeconomics.com/archives/33539

Silver is headed below $12 and gold below $1050.

Most likely bottoming below $9 and $850. The lowest possible for gold in the $600s.

We have a bounce here in BTC and PMs, then headed for lower lows, which means < $150 for BTC and probably double-digits  Shocked

It will be a blood bath.  Cool

You've been warned. And I have not been wrong since I started following Armstrong some years ago.
If we fall here (BTC) it will be bloodbath IMO too.

I have no position ATM. If we break 240 I will short it.
If we break 260 I will open longs if I can between 249-255 (in a possible correction). Else, will enter after we close above 335.

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June 20, 2015, 12:21:39 AM
 #103

time to sell already ? i cant read the market, im lost Sad
Stay calm - technically we have not reversed yet (242$).

235-236 is big support.

Our bullish support can fall down to 222$ (but basically is at 228$).

EDIT: Oups, sorry, reversal is at 244$ but Finex holds. You can sell if we hit 244$

we've just it 242.5 but i cant get myself to sell yet hahah. i'll wait for 240 to break. i dont know how you guys do this whole daytrading thing, bitcoin price used to be easy to predict but nowadays i cant get anything right. i guess i'll just focus on XMR.
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June 20, 2015, 05:51:01 AM
 #104

He wrote bullish support is at $222 - $228.

What price did you buy at? I told you much better to buy in the $220s. You went and rushed in and bought > $250 after I wrote that  Huh

All bull rallies have flags (where they decline back to support before moving higher).

I doubt very much this was a false start.

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June 20, 2015, 11:42:17 AM
 #105

He wrote bullish support is at $222 - $228.

What price did you buy at? I told you much better to buy in the $220s. You went and rushed in and bought > $250 after I wrote that  Huh

All bull rallies have flags (where they decline back to support before moving higher).

I doubt very much this was a false start.

I've bought in at 248 during the correction of the 250 breakout. But dont misinterpret my writings for anger or sadness. Its quite the contrary actually. I'm happy I did it as there are a few trades I've made in the shitcoin market that I wouldnt have had the opportunity to make if i were still in fiat.

What I meant is that I'm confused all the time nowadays when I trade bitcoin. I cant for the life of me predict anything. I am lost every single time. I've to rely on you guys Cheesy
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June 23, 2015, 01:23:44 PM
 #106

I was just looking at BTC history, and last june we also had a pre summer pump to 666, then a breather and then a double top in early july. Do you guys think its possible for history to repeat itself ? There as been so much dumping at the 240+ level, I have a hard time imagining 300+. Besides, the more time we take, the less probable it is, because the fools that need to buy bitcoin will be in holidays.

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June 23, 2015, 11:08:32 PM
 #107

I was just looking at BTC history, and last june we also had a pre summer pump to 666, then a breather and then a double top in early july. Do you guys think its possible for history to repeat itself ? There as been so much dumping at the 240+ level, I have a hard time imagining 300+. Besides, the more time we take, the less probable it is, because the fools that need to buy bitcoin will be in holidays.

Good. You are learning about seasonality. That is only one factor and it is probablistic, thus your sample size is too small, but Armstrong's computer has done it for gold and we have the supporting issues of the other cycles logic mentioned.

We are probably getting a bounce now because we went as low as we could with volatility reaching minimum. Now volatility must increase, so first it is to the upside, in order to set up the conditions to make lower lows.

Markets are complex. You need a supercomputer and lots of data.

It appears we are rebasing with low volatility in the $240s.

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June 24, 2015, 03:38:37 PM
 #108

240 broken. should we sell?
klee
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June 24, 2015, 04:38:14 PM
 #109

240 broken. should we sell?
If you can stomach it sell at 222 - it would be wise to average down as it falls.

Before entering a trade always have an exit plan!
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June 24, 2015, 08:05:54 PM
Last edit: June 24, 2015, 08:26:14 PM by TPTB_need_war
 #110

240 broken. should we sell?
If you can stomach it sell at 222 - it would be wise to average down as it falls.

Before entering a trade always have an exit plan!

Agreed. Nothing is sure, but volatility can shake out the weak hands. Our thesis could be wrong or we may have the wrong timing, in which case we lose stopped out in the $220s. If our thesis is correct, we loaded up in the $230s and maximize ROI selling in the $300s.

We rose off a base of very low volatility which every time in the past has corresponded to a significant rally. If volatility is rising, it can also be on the downside flag, midway through the rally.

On the Bitstamp candlestick chart, the rally began from $218 and reached $258, thus as a midway flag pattern, this would project a peak price of $297. However, normally you want to look at percentage moves (midway on a log scale), thus 258/219 = 1.178 x 258 = $304 projected peak. The second leg of the flag pattern can nosebleed exceed the projected peak (often on an intraday candlestick, not a closing price).

It really looks like a flag pattern to me. If you draw a line from the $218 along the bottom of the candlesticks, the recent move down has not yet broken significantly through this line. If it closes below this line, I'd get worried.

Technical analysis is basically useless if you don't also have some other thesis from which gives you confidence. We have the repeating low volatility preceding a major rally thesis. We also have the seasonal rise thesis. We also have the thesis that the markets always move in the direction to harm the most greater fools combined with the coming contagion by October, thus a relief rally to suck in more "HODLers to the moon" is apropos.

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June 24, 2015, 08:12:32 PM
 #111

240 broken. should we sell?
If you can stomach it sell at 222 - it would be wise to average down as it falls.

Before entering a trade always have an exit plan!

Agreed. Nothing is sure, but volatility can shake out the weak hands. Our thesis could be wrong or we may have the wrong timing, in which case we lose stopped out in the $220s. If our thesis is correct, we loaded up in the $230s and maximize ROI selling in the $300s.

We rose off a base of very low volatility which every time in the past has corresponded to a significant rally. If volatility is rising, it can also be on the downside flag, midway through the rally.

I will LMAO when we breach $300 and then stabilize above it never to see below again.
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June 24, 2015, 08:18:18 PM
 #112

I will LMAO when we breach $300 and then stabilize above it never to see below again.

If we move significantly above $400, then you can LMAO with confidence. Otherwise, you are very likely to be the greater fool, based on Armstrong's thesis of public vs. private assets and the timing of the coming contagion in October as I explained upthread.

Remember capital flows chase capital flows, because of the wealth effect (i.e. the market price and thus market cap > the capital invested). Thus when the stampede is in a certain direction, capital follows there and out of where it was. Then you have to add the margin calls and leverage induced liquidity contagion that exacerbates the effect.

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June 24, 2015, 08:22:15 PM
 #113

240 broken. should we sell?
If you can stomach it sell at 222 - it would be wise to average down as it falls.

Before entering a trade always have an exit plan!

Agreed. Nothing is sure, but volatility can shake out the weak hands. Our thesis could be wrong or we may have the wrong timing, in which case we lose stopped out in the $220s. If our thesis is correct, we loaded up in the $230s and maximize ROI selling in the $300s.

We rose off a base of very low volatility which every time in the past has corresponded to a significant rally. If volatility is rising, it can also be on the downside flag, midway through the rally.

I will LMAO when we breach $300 and then stabilize above it never to see below again.

We'll never reach $300 again
darlidada
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June 24, 2015, 08:29:38 PM
 #114

240 broken. should we sell?
If you can stomach it sell at 222 - it would be wise to average down as it falls.

Before entering a trade always have an exit plan!

Agreed. Nothing is sure, but volatility can shake out the weak hands. Our thesis could be wrong or we may have the wrong timing, in which case we lose stopped out in the $220s. If our thesis is correct, we loaded up in the $230s and maximize ROI selling in the $300s.

We rose off a base of very low volatility which every time in the past has corresponded to a significant rally. If volatility is rising, it can also be on the downside flag, midway through the rally.

I will LMAO when we breach $300 and then stabilize above it never to see below again.

You have to realize Anonymint I've not been wrong in his predictions so far. U'd have at least tripled your bitcoin stash by listening to him so I'd avise you caution before LMAOing. At this point anybody attacking him without any kind of arguments and going full bull is either delusional or has not your best interest at heart.

I still have doubts about 300 as there is lot of downard pressure. But I've no doubts about the second part of his prediction : we'll go under 150 at some point.

I'll hodle for now and hope to go where Saint John the baptist is pointing

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June 24, 2015, 08:37:58 PM
 #115

240 broken. should we sell?
If you can stomach it sell at 222 - it would be wise to average down as it falls.

Before entering a trade always have an exit plan!

Agreed. Nothing is sure, but volatility can shake out the weak hands. Our thesis could be wrong or we may have the wrong timing, in which case we lose stopped out in the $220s. If our thesis is correct, we loaded up in the $230s and maximize ROI selling in the $300s.

We rose off a base of very low volatility which every time in the past has corresponded to a significant rally. If volatility is rising, it can also be on the downside flag, midway through the rally.

I will LMAO when we breach $300 and then stabilize above it never to see below again.

We'll never reach $300 again

i'll remind you this post sometime  Smiley pls don't regret then  Tongue
klee
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June 27, 2015, 05:12:38 PM
 #116

Bearish signal reversed:

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June 27, 2015, 05:42:08 PM
 #117

Bearish signal reversed:



klee, I would like to hear your opinion on the short term and medium term please.

What do you see and what are the obstacles ?

Quote from:  Satoshi Nakamoto
Feb. 14, 2010: I’m sure that in 20 years there will either be very large transaction volume or no volume.
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June 27, 2015, 05:59:26 PM
 #118

Bearish signal reversed:



klee, I would like to hear your opinion on the short term and medium term please.

What do you see and what are the obstacles ?
If we break 250-255 we will probably test 300$ again.

Above 350$ we have almost certainly IMHO a new ATH rally in the making..
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June 28, 2015, 06:17:04 AM
 #119

Back to our 4x3 chart:

klee
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June 30, 2015, 06:57:52 AM
 #120

SAR 284$, triple top resistance 268 (272 to break it):

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