PnF TA

[klee]

In order to join my trading team at SLACK please PM me (do not bother with newbie accts!).





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While being bored from the sideway movement, I decided to start this thread.

It is TA based on Point & Figure method.
You can learn the basics here:
http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:chart_analysis:pnf_charts:pnf_basics

So on Bitfinex buy signal is at 252, sell signal at 224 (HL, Traditional, Box size 4$, Reversal 3):
Bullish support 228-236, bearish resistance 240-248.



Important thing to notice is the thick red Bearish Resistance line, from the last ATH (at about 1200$) - this is the resistance we keep failing to break.
If we break it, technically we won't be in bear market until a new bearish resistance line forms which we won't be able to penetrate.
Often, when this line is penetrated a bull market starts.

Bullish support lines are the green ones, the thick green gave us the last double top break after the previous double bottom break.

Yellow line is SMA of 10 columns. The middle of the column is where to focus relative to this line. So, the last red Os column not below the MA yet.

As you can all see the triangle has to break sooner or later!

[1714006114]

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[1714006114]

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[1714006114]

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[1714006114]

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[klee]

So we made another box size down to 232$



We could do one more down to 228 and still the bulls have hope that their trend is still valid.

Besides the bearish/bullish support lines, there are normal support/resistance too - this is where the last O or X stopped at previous columns.
So here 228 acts as support in both ways.

Sometimes the price falls just above the breakout O (in this case 224, eg 224.1, 225 etc) and then bounces back up.

And there are bear traps as well:



Horizontal support at 168, 196, 204, 212, 216, 220

So to sum up, not every double top/bottom break is a signal, you have to take into account the overall picture as usual.

Personally I would sell below 225 because we failed to penetrate the bearish resistance line once again and the middle of the O column would have fallen below the SMA.
But I would not go short because of the many resistances from 210 to 220.

[Afrikoin]

+1 NEwest fan here

[klee]

+1 NEwest fan here

Greetings sir! 

[wizzardTim]

Watching!


Thank you for providing this interesting thread.

[kwukduck]

Yep, i've found basically the same. We are getting awfully close to the breaking point.
Time for a chain reaction.

[klee]

Thanks Tim!

Seems time for a X column? Let's see if it will give us both buy signal AND the end of the bearish trend (252$).

Tough fight from 240 to 245...

[klee]

Bitstamp breakout for the previous rally (fall 2013):

[klee]

Some more long term view (for investors and more long term traders):



The box size is based on ATR 100 and it is about 14$.

Pay attention to the double bottom we formed at 220$.
Relatively 'safe' longs:
350-395
450-520
540-680
700-1000
>1200

EDIT: But basically if we break 440$ it is a buy.
         If we break 220 next stop maybe 165$.

EDIT2: Updated image with bullish support line.

[klee]

I like the previous chart because it shows clearly the many failed double top attempts in the past.

Around 300, 440, 525, 675, 825-840 and almost at 1000 and 1150

[Fakhoury]

Some more long term view (for investors and more long term traders):



The box size is based on ATR 100 and it is about 14$.

Pay attention to the double bottom we formed at 220$.
Relatively 'safe' longs:
350-395
450-520
540-680
700-1000
>1200

EDIT: But basically if we break 440$ it is a buy.
         If we break 220 next stop maybe 165$.

EDIT2: Updated image with bullish support line.

Thank you for the chart.

Could you elaborate more about the safe longs please.

[klee]

Some more long term view (for investors and more long term traders):



The box size is based on ATR 100 and it is about 14$.

Pay attention to the double bottom we formed at 220$.
Relatively 'safe' longs:
350-395
450-520
540-680
700-1000
>1200

EDIT: But basically if we break 440$ it is a buy.
         If we break 220 next stop maybe 165$.

EDIT2: Updated image with bullish support line.

Thank you for the chart.

Could you elaborate more about the safe longs please.

Ok, so this is a more long term view again.

According to this chart we have many bearish resistance lines to clear until about 440$.
But we have some room to open a long between about 350 and 400.

After we clear the bearish lines we have to look back at the chart at where we have double tops (or tripple etc) that were not broken, so this is a price where we will have resistance too (maybe we can take some profits, wait to enter again lower etc).

The double bottom at 220 is intact yet, so it is a sign that the bears there failed to penetrate this price.

The most important buy/sell signal is always breaking double tops/bottoms - it is as if there is a brick wall there that was preventing the price to move beyond and it is finally broken!

That said, if we do break out, it will basically be (at about 315) a quadruple top breakout which is VERY bullish signal and you could risk opening a long there too. The higher we go the less the risk, the less the rewards.

Finally, the long term trader or investor could always not sell at the resistances I mentioned (in previous double top failed attempts) but:
1) In the first double bottom break or
2) In the first double bottom break AND penetration of the bullish support line

[Fakhoury]

Some more long term view (for investors and more long term traders):



The box size is based on ATR 100 and it is about 14$.

Pay attention to the double bottom we formed at 220$.
Relatively 'safe' longs:
350-395
450-520
540-680
700-1000
>1200

EDIT: But basically if we break 440$ it is a buy.
         If we break 220 next stop maybe 165$.

EDIT2: Updated image with bullish support line.

Thank you for the chart.

Could you elaborate more about the safe longs please.

Ok, so this is a more long term view again.

According to this chart we have many bearish resistance lines to clear until about 440$.
But we have some room to open a long between about 350 and 400.

After we clear the bearish lines we have to look back at the chart at where we have double tops (or tripple etc) that were not broken, so this is a price where we will have resistance too (maybe we can take some profits, wait to enter again lower etc).

The double bottom at 220 is intact yet, so it is a sign that the bears there failed to penetrate this price.

The most important buy/sell signal is always breaking double tops/bottoms - it is as if there is a brick wall there that was preventing the price to move beyond and it is finally broken!

That said, if we do break out, it will basically be (at about 315) a quadruple top breakout which is VERY bullish signal and you could risk opening a long there too. The higher we go the less the risk, the less the rewards.

Finally, the long term trader or investor could always not sell at the resistances I mentioned (in previous double top failed attempts) but:
1) In the first double bottom break or
2) In the first double bottom break AND penetration of the bullish support line

Thank you for the elaboration.

With all the movments and efforts drawn into bitcoin.

Don't you feel bullish about breaking the bearish barriers and lines in the above chart.

I see here that you are netural, but from your expreience and knowledge, what do you think after the long-term future, 5 -10 years from now ?

Thank you.

[klee]

Thank you for the elaboration.

With all the movments and efforts drawn into bitcoin.

Don't you feel bullish about breaking the bearish barriers and lines in the above chart.

I see here that you are netural, but from your expreience and knowledge, what do you think after the long-term future, 5 -10 years from now ?

Thank you.

I think Jamie Dimon is the only well known representative of the bank cartel that saw and expressed this clearly - Silicon Valley wants a piece of the pie in the money business and their weapon will be mainly Bitcoin.

What effect will this battle of the two mega powers have I don't know - but I think they both have reasons to manipulate the price in both directions*.
In general, masses will follow the winner unless some serious shit hit the fan (USD collapse, Eurozone collapse, etc).
IMO average Joe is not interested in investing anymore for various reasons.

Unless some serious volume picks up with GBTC & XBT ETN (which are bullish in general) I expect another dump down to the 220-225 zone. If this holds I don't know but if we hit below 200 I think it will be the result of big manipulation (like the dump from 300 to 150).

Long term I think that Bitcoin will eventually rally above 1000$ but maybe the drama is not over yet...

*EDIT: Well, basically malicious gvts/banks/old money biz cartel have reasons to manipulate the price only in one direction.

[Afrikoin]

Thank you for the elaboration.

With all the movments and efforts drawn into bitcoin.

Don't you feel bullish about breaking the bearish barriers and lines in the above chart.

I see here that you are netural, but from your expreience and knowledge, what do you think after the long-term future, 5 -10 years from now ?

Thank you.

I think Jamie Dimon is the only well known representative of the bank cartel that saw and expressed this clearly - Silicon Valley wants a piece of the pie in the money business and their weapon will be mainly Bitcoin.

What effect will this battle of the two mega powers have I don't know - but I think they both have reasons to manipulate the price in both directions*.
In general, masses will follow the winner unless some serious shit hit the fan (USD collapse, Eurozone collapse, etc).
IMO average Joe is not interested in investing anymore for various reasons.

Unless some serious volume picks up with GBTC & XBT ETN (which are bullish in general) I expect another dump down to the 220-225 zone. If this holds I don't know but if we hit below 200 I think it will be the result of big manipulation (like the dump from 300 to 150).

Long term I think that Bitcoin will eventually rally above 1000$ but maybe the drama is not over yet...

*EDIT: Well, basically malicious gvts/banks/old money biz cartel have reasons to manipulate the price only in one direction.

i think the price is being artificially kept low and even driven to lower lows to take it away from the limelight and media attention and focus on application development. I have read a lot of people (smart) comment on this saying 'the price needs to be low to focus attention on the more important aspects of bitcoin development - all else other than it's speculative price that is'.

Fits in well with how price has been trending down since last year. Now, i have now proof of this, but i see us heading even lower than $165. Once all the infrastructure is set up properly, the next wave of price rise would be more sustainable as the services required will be plenty.

Just my opinion. Ignore

[klee]

i think the price is being artificially kept low and even driven to lower lows to take it away from the limelight and media attention and focus on application development. I have read a lot of people (smart) comment on this saying 'the price needs to be low to focus attention on the more important aspects of bitcoin development - all else other than it's speculative price that is'.

Fits in well with how price has been trending down since last year. Now, i have now proof of this, but i see us heading even lower than $165. Once all the infrastructure is set up properly, the next wave of price rise would be more sustainable as the services required will be plenty.

Just my opinion. Ignore

No need to ignore, quite the contrary!

Truth is that when speculating on fundamentals and various scenarios you might go crazy. We will never know if someone is manipulating, to what extent, etc etc
Maybe BTC was overpriced, maybe it was just longs getting margined, maybe BTC fundamentals is so broken it will never rally again, maybe...
So basically I don't care anymore about news, technical issues (block size, halving, 51% attacks, etc), hype, trolls, shills and so on!

In the end of the day what really matters is who is in control on the supply & demand battle, bulls or bears?

That is written in PnF charts.

[Fakhoury]

i think the price is being artificially kept low and even driven to lower lows to take it away from the limelight and media attention and focus on application development. I have read a lot of people (smart) comment on this saying 'the price needs to be low to focus attention on the more important aspects of bitcoin development - all else other than it's speculative price that is'.

Fits in well with how price has been trending down since last year. Now, i have now proof of this, but i see us heading even lower than $165. Once all the infrastructure is set up properly, the next wave of price rise would be more sustainable as the services required will be plenty.

Just my opinion. Ignore

No need to ignore, quite the contrary!

Truth is that when speculating on fundamentals and various scenarios you might go crazy. We will never know if someone is manipulating, to what extent, etc etc
Maybe BTC was overpriced, maybe it was just longs getting margined, maybe BTC fundamentals is so broken it will never rally again, maybe...
So basically I don't care anymore about news, technical issues (block size, halving, 51% attacks, etc), hype, trolls, shills and so on!

In the end of the day what really matters is who is in control on the supply & demand battle, bulls or bears?

That is written in PnF charts.

It's Bears right now, correct me please if I'm wrong.

But with all big players and economic organizations entering the battlefield if I can say, would the future be Bullish ?

Who could be staisifed from killing bitcoin's value ?

Masses who are afriad from using bitcoins ?

[klee]

We've got one box down, we've got one box down!

[klee]

Seems we are bouncing at the edge of the bullish support line

[klee]

Seems we are bouncing at the edge of the bullish support line

LOL no bounce!  

Sell signal:





Bitstamp though stil hodling: