PnF TA

[Afrikoin]

It has begun...

Looks like week of Aug 10 will ensue the big sell off in gold (and probably also Bitcoin):

Do you know when the big sell off started the previous summer (from the 685$ high to 165$ bottom)? August 11th!

It made a nice double top 685$ and 665$ and the rest is history...
Will it repeat itself (315 and 305?)?

http://prntscr.com/7ytx1o

Actually it was 315 & 298, almost 20$ AGAIN!

EDIT:  9 August

could be.

Or maybe one more attempt at $300 before TPTB_needs war forecast kicks in.

[1714066673]

1714066673

[1714066673]

1714066673

[macsga]

You know, I'm anxiously waiting for this prediction to become true. If it does, (which at some point I've bet against it, for the sake of argument) it will mean that the entanglement of Gold & Bitcoin (also other commodities as well) is true. Which is something that I find awesome! So, to some extent, I wish my prediction (that BTC won't crash) that we're heading for a Bull run sometime after late September - beginning of October, is wrong...

I know, I'm in desperate need of psychiatric attention...   

[Fakhoury]

It has begun...

Looks like week of Aug 10 will ensue the big sell off in gold (and probably also Bitcoin):

Do you know when the big sell off started the previous summer (from the 685$ high to 165$ bottom)? August 11th!

It made a nice double top 685$ and 665$ and the rest is history...
Will it repeat itself (315 and 305?)?

http://prntscr.com/7ytx1o

Actually it was 315 & 298, almost 20$ AGAIN!

EDIT:  9 August

Klee, you want to say that this is a head and shoulder pattern and $250 is A MUST, right ?

[Fakhoury]

You know, I'm anxiously waiting for this prediction to become true. If it does, (which at some point I've bet against it, for the sake of argument) it will mean that the entanglement of Gold & Bitcoin (also other commodities as well) is true. Which is something that I find awesome! So, to some extent, I wish my prediction (that BTC won't crash) that we're heading for a Bull run sometime after late September - beginning of October, is wrong...

I know, I'm in desperate need of psychiatric attention...   

macsga, could you elaborate this more please

"it will mean that the entanglement of Gold and Bitcoin is true"

In other words, I'm trying to understand why you are happy about this as you are serious as me.

[macsga]

You know, I'm anxiously waiting for this prediction to become true. If it does, (which at some point I've bet against it, for the sake of argument) it will mean that the entanglement of Gold & Bitcoin (also other commodities as well) is true. Which is something that I find awesome! So, to some extent, I wish my prediction (that BTC won't crash) that we're heading for a Bull run sometime after late September - beginning of October, is wrong...

I know, I'm in desperate need of psychiatric attention...   

macsga, could you elaborate this more please

"it will mean that the entanglement of Gold and Bitcoin is true"

In other words, I'm trying to understand why you are happy about this as you are serious as me.

On an elder scroll older post, I've argued with TPTB_need_war about his prediction that when Gold will start to fall, BTC will follow. He's most probably right, but since nobody argued about it, I thought it was fun to do so. In case I'm wrong and he's right, that means (even vaguely) the link between the two (BTC & Gold) truly exists! So, in essence, I wish I am wrong.

[TPTB_need_war]

If the first proposition is proven true, then next interesting one is whether crypto-currency can detach from gold and become a public asset, i.e. does Bitcoin become the Govcoin someday.

Or will an anonymous coin someday detach from gold when Gov can successfully destroy gold but can't destroy the anonymous internet (if that happens).

Unknowns.

[dragonseer]

As far as I'm concerned, the ongoing fascination with the 'anonymous' features of currencies like Dash and Monero is holding the crypto community back. If you really want a private asset then don't have one that can't function without the internet. When more people awaken to how institutions have been abusing them and will keep on doing so, they are more likely to get angry and shove it in people's faces that they are getting on board with something new. So something like Potcoin could be a dark horse that takes a big market share sometime in the future. This whole 'We want a revolution but we don't want to show our faces' movement has had its moment and died on the vine. The next phase, and one far more effective in instigating change, could be fuelled by Joe Citizen angry when he realizes that the FDA has known that cannabis slows tumor growth since the 70s, while corporate powers are secretly getting behind tech that they know accelerates tumor growth, like microwave radiation.

Tell that to the man who is sticking the big RED, WHITE, and BLUE expropriation dick up your ass in 2017 forward.

All over the world, capital is going to be stampeding into the $dollar and then USA stocks as safe haven. By 2017.9, we will see the DJIA double in price.

I'll tell you what I think is the flaw in your reasoning, take a look at this graph, if you will



This is a graph of the Australian Dollar versus the American Dollar over the last twelve months. Australia has traditionally been a currency backed by commodities, and Australia has extremely conservative lending practices. Don't think for a minute that there have been any local issues here in OZ that have caused this kind of devaluation. Over this period of the last year the American dollar has seemingly decoupled from the Oil price, and just about anything else that would see it restrained by common sense.

This graph is one of many indicators that shows that 'All over the world, capital HAS been stampeding into the US dollar and USA stocks as safe haven'. Your assumption seems to be that the rest of the world seemingly has no answer to the bluster and bloated balance sheets that are propping up the US share market and dollar value. Let's see if this US dollar fiat bubble can even survive until the end of the year before we start worrying about 2017.

[klee]

Klee, you want to say that this is a head and shoulder pattern and $250 is A MUST, right ?

Must is a very strong word, especially in markets. But this is my prediction.
It is based on (MA+TPTB analysis) + PnF analysis + my 'wisdom' I have gained in this market since 2011.

About my wisdom, it is a bit complicated and difficult for me to describe in English. I will try to someday.

About PnF, it is an a posteriori method regarding price - it does not predict but it tells you the momentum/trend. Which is bearish atm. VERY bearish. Multiple bearish signs since the 315 top.

My P&F 'forecast' can be wrong and this turns out to be a shakeout. Technically it has small chances because:
1) Bullish trendline violated so technically it does not qualify as a shakeout (a reverse at 300)
2) It will have to reverse the bearish catapult formation (most strong signal in P&F)

BUT...It IS possible! Everything is. After all Bitcoin tends to always exagerate at TA and stretch things to the limits. So I don't think it is impossible. I just give it very small chances.
Also I don't think it is probable to go sideways for some months in the 240-270 area before we breakout.
We need a very serious reason for people to panic USE Bitcoin, like Greece^3.
Maybe the tsunami MA predicts will fuel Bitcoin instead of taking it down along with everything else, who knows?

Finally, about MA, he seems to be onto something, and TPTB is the only insane enough guy in here to actually make sense.

[TPTB_need_war]

This is a graph of the Australian Dollar versus the American Dollar over the last twelve months. Australia has traditionally been a currency backed by commodities, and Australia has extremely conservative lending practices. Don't think for a minute that there have been any local issues here in OZ that have caused this kind of devaluation. Over this period of the last year the American dollar has seemingly decoupled from the Oil price, and just about anything else that would see it restrained by common sense.

This graph is one of many indicators that shows that 'All over the world, capital HAS been stampeding into the US dollar and USA stocks as safe haven'. Your assumption seems to be that the rest of the world seemingly has no answer to the bluster and bloated balance sheets that are propping up the US share market and dollar value. Let's see if this US dollar fiat bubble can even survive until the end of the year before we start worrying about 2017.

The USA is in a much stronger debt and fiscal position than many other nations of the world. But more importantly, it prints the reserve currency of the world.

The $8 trillion of QE ended up as a carry trade because due to ZIRP investors were forced to buy emerging market bonds to get yield.

Now the entire world is $5 trillion short the dollar (they owe that much dollars).

And this is one of the reasons capital will exit the periphery and head back to the USA until 2017.9.

Also the USA will be raising interest rates (which they can afford to do as capital is streaming in) and these higher rates will attract capital from the rest of the world.

You have an overly simplistic view of how the world really works. I am giving you an explanation about reality.

[Afrikoin]

TPTB_needs_war

IF gold lines up with BTC and move together.

and IF financial instability kicks in 2017 or close thereafter

and IF bitcoin will still be around as an alternative scarce asset detached from gov monetary manipulation

Question

Would these set of circumstances be enough to take BTC back to ATH and then some? I havent seen you mention any forecasts on probable price of bitcoin then.

[btcdrak]

I was asked by OP to post my chart here. It looks like one single move (bubble) to ~1150 and the 52EMA shows the support and resistance quite nicely.

[Wexlike]

There are still people left who look at bitfinex fake walls ? It's just one whale who makes always the same moves.

Sadly there are...

Bitfinex walls back up.

[klee]

I was asked by OP to post my chart here. It looks like one single move (bubble) to ~1150 and the 52EMA shows the support and resistance quite nicely.

Thanks Drak, I really like when I see beautiful simple TA. Less is more!

[klee]

There are still people left who look at bitfinex fake walls ? It's just one whale who makes always the same moves.

Sadly there are...

Bitfinex walls back up.

Lol, dat whales..

[ask]

What is wrong with bear catapult now.  Is it jammed?

[klee]

What is wrong with bear catapult now.  Is it jammed?

Columns may take years to complete, they are not like candle charts. It may go even further down in price or bounce with a new X column.
But you would expect it to be a dead cat because of the strong sell. If we breakout 300+ the whole setup was a shakeout but not a textbook one.

Here are some examples to see this signal with other assets:
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.scan?s=TSAL[t.t_eq_s]![as0,20,tv_gt_40000]![yb_eq_1]&report=predefall

[ask]

What is wrong with bear catapult now.  Is it jammed?

Columns may take years to complete, they are not like candle charts. It may go even further down in price or bounce with a new X column.
But you would expect it to be a dead cat because of the strong sell. If we breakout 300+ the whole setup was a shakeout but not a textbook one.

Here are some examples to see this signal with other assets:
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.scan?s=TSAL[t.t_eq_s]![as0,20,tv_gt_40000]![yb_eq_1]&report=predefall

So you are still bearish? I am because if whale triggered initial drop, it has to buy coins cheaper. But currently there is no volume. Longs are still high. I believe that there should be at least another strong drop. There has to be strong volume at the bottom, otherwise it is not the bottom.

[klee]

What is wrong with bear catapult now.  Is it jammed?

Columns may take years to complete, they are not like candle charts. It may go even further down in price or bounce with a new X column.
But you would expect it to be a dead cat because of the strong sell. If we breakout 300+ the whole setup was a shakeout but not a textbook one.

Here are some examples to see this signal with other assets:
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.scan?s=TSAL[t.t_eq_s]![as0,20,tv_gt_40000]![yb_eq_1]&report=predefall

So you are still bearish? I am because if whale triggered initial drop, it has to buy coins cheaper. But currently there is no volume. Longs are still high. I believe that there should be at least another strong drop. There has to be strong volume at the bottom, otherwise it is not the bottom.

Yes.. As long as we stay above the thick red bear resistance it is considered bearish. So I am yes.

BTW what is the status with the golden cross & cup handle? Are they technically over?

Yeah I agree. Problem with P&F though is there is no way to catch the bottom, actually it is quite the opposite. So you have to consider other tools like you say. Personally I will wait to see 1d RSI below 30 to enter again long term OR a big Os column (>20) that it will reverse. This is a long tail down reversal:

http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:chart_analysis:pnf_alerts#long_tail_down_reversal

When we fell down to 168$ in the 4$ box HL, the reversal was at 180... I bought & sold at 198 lol. What an idiot...

[TPTB_need_war]

TPTB_needs_war

IF gold lines up with BTC and move together.

and IF financial instability kicks in 2017 or close thereafter

and IF bitcoin will still be around as an alternative scarce asset detached from gov monetary manipulation

Question

Would these set of circumstances be enough to take BTC back to ATH and then some? I havent seen you mention any forecasts on probable price of bitcoin then.

I do believe BTC will make new all time highs 2017 or thereafter.

[klee]

Here is the HL with a 2$ box size:



Bullish signal (triple top break) reversed almost at the resistance from 316 and subjective support broken.
Support 254, 240 (the previous double bottoms). Bearish support line 254-256.

More sensitive chart - gives bigger returns with higher risk.