Too Late to Join the Party?

[BitcoinsWallet]

NEVER is too late 

[1713931565]

1713931565

[Veldy]

did your calculation include the diminishing returns on solved blocks? last i heard the estimated time frame for the end of minting was around 2036 or some jazz?

Difficulty drives solved blocks per hour to 6.  So, it is unlikely we will drop below 6 for any period of time so I consider that the long term best case scenario.  6 blocks is 300BTC.  21M BTC - current minted amount and divide by 300 and you get the number of hours.  Divide by 24 and again by 365.25 and you get the number of years.  Simple.  Now, if you look historically, BTC generation has FAR exceeded 6 blocks per hour and thus the large number of coins and currently minted.  I think there is little doubt that at some point in the future [probably months], there will be another influx of hardware and the race to 21M BTC will pull that calculated value back to an earlier date. 

You do realize that some of the really early miners have in all likelihood tens of thousands of bitcoins in their wallets [unless they cashed them out continuously]?  They do have the ability to buy a lot of new equipment if they deem it worth while.

[Strom]

One thing to remember in reading all the pro-mining posts is that most posters have a vested interest, that is, they will be better off if mining continues to be profitable.  This isn't to say they are being deceptive - just that nobody likes to believe the gravy train they are riding will stop.

It would be in a miner's best interest to deny profitability because any additional computing power added to the network decreases the bitcoin income of the existing miner.

[Horkabork]

It's still profitable and will be for at least 30 days. Why should you care about 30 days? Because that's when many electronic store return periods end for video cards. So long as you don't mind returning video cards for, at flat worst, store credit minus a 15% restocking fee, you aren't risking much on a few-videocard investment.

I'm not telling you to buy cards with the intention of returning them. Rather I'm saying that the risk is limited because, should the shit hit the fan, you could get most of your investment back. You'll have 29 days of mining to decide whether continuing is worth it or not.

Until then, you don't need to make a bunch of calculations and predictions on what mining will be like past the next few difficulty increases. It's possible that the exchange rate will rise to match difficulty. It's possible that I may fart doves out of my butt the next time I eat a big bowl of chili. The thing is, you don't want to be left out and miss the dove farts, especially when you can join in with little risk and also enjoy a big bowl of chili, which you were probably going to eat anyway because you made it a few days ago and you don't like throwing out leftovers when you spent so much time making that chili in the crockpot. You even used turkey meat to try to make it "healthier" before you gave up on healthfulness and added sausage that you found in the bottom of the freezer. That way, your arteries say "Hey, man, I appreciate the healthy option" right before they get clogged full of sausagey goodness and swear to end you for your trickery. Also, for some reason, you added garbanzo beans. In fact, I don't think this is chili at all anymore, which just supports my point even more, even though I can't remember what it was. Hey, I should put sour cream on this.

[hoo2jalu]

....
It would be in a miner's best interest to deny profitability because any additional computing power added to the network decreases the bitcoin income of the existing miner.

Yes! I also lost thousands of dollars on mining. Everyone should quit. The police will raid you for growing marijuanas. It's a fact!
 and the ozone from my overclocked 5850 gave me lung cancer.

[grue]

....
It would be in a miner's best interest to deny profitability because any additional computing power added to the network decreases the bitcoin income of the existing miner.

Yes! I also lost thousands of dollars on mining. Everyone should quit. The police will raid you for growing marijuanas. It's a fact!
 and the ozone from my overclocked 5850 gave me lung cancer.

yes, quit so the difficulty will be lower.

[Nythain]

did your calculation include the diminishing returns on solved blocks? last i heard the estimated time frame for the end of minting was around 2036 or some jazz?

Difficulty drives solved blocks per hour to 6.  So, it is unlikely we will drop below 6 for any period of time so I consider that the long term best case scenario.  6 blocks is 300BTC.  21M BTC - current minted amount and divide by 300 and you get the number of hours.  Divide by 24 and again by 365.25 and you get the number of years.  Simple.  Now, if you look historically, BTC generation has FAR exceeded 6 blocks per hour and thus the large number of coins and currently minted.  I think there is little doubt that at some point in the future [probably months], there will be another influx of hardware and the race to 21M BTC will pull that calculated value back to an earlier date. 

You do realize that some of the really early miners have in all likelihood tens of thousands of bitcoins in their wallets [unless they cashed them out continuously]?  They do have the ability to buy a lot of new equipment if they deem it worth while.

Except that once again, it would appear that your calculations aren't taking into consideration that the bounty gets halved every 210,000 blocks... not all 21m coins will be minted at 50btc per block. After 210,000 blocks, the bounty drops to 25btc per block, then at 420,000 it drops to 12.5? btc a block, etc. This drastically increases the amount of time it will take to mint all 21 million coins. Sure, the network is solving blocks faster than the optimal 6 per hour, but even at an increased rate, its not going to reduce decades of time into a couple of years.

[fnord123]

It would be in a miner's best interest to deny profitability because any additional computing power added to the network decreases the bitcoin income of the existing miner.

If miners were perfectly rational and willing to lie, then yes, it would be in their best interest to deny profitability.

However, most people posting here like to think that they are honest people.  As such, they express their "true" opinion, and not lies.  And most people who mine do so because they think it is profitable - just like most people who flipped houses in 2006 did so because they thought it was going to continue to be profitable - even when data was staring them straight in the face that houses were getting too expensive.  People will go to extraordinary lengths to continue to believe easy money will keep coming.

[anisoptera]

If there's one thing I learned from watching the first two thirds of MC Hammer's Behind the Music, it's that the money never stops.

[jasonk]

Damn, I didn't expect replies that fast!

Ati's are better at raw integer calcs, while nvidia cards are better at floating point calcs.  The former is a better fit for bitcoin hashing, the latter a better fit for scientific simulation.

Ahh, that would explain things a lot - guess ATI is the way to go then.

For the next three years or so power expenditure will be zero, so I guess it would be wise to make the most out of it! That said I'm not going to go and blow a load on an entire new rig, will probably just invest in a couple of new GPUs - it looks like the ATI 58XX models are the way to go?

Thanks for the quick replies everyone

5850 is the most cost effective card, in terms of performance/$, but they're rare, even more rare than 5970, or 6990. 5830/5870 are the next best cards. use 5830 if you don't have much money to invest with, or 5870 if you have lots of cash.

5830's are far more cost effective than 5850's.  I got some 5830's for $90 after rebate.  5850's cost me $160.  I'm doing 288M hashes with 5830's and 318M hashes with 5850's.

[Aqualung]

5830's are far more cost effective than 5850's.  I got some 5830's for $90 after rebate.  5850's cost me $160.  I'm doing 288M hashes with 5830's and 318M hashes with 5850's.

try to overclock 5850 too I'm doing 250 on my 5830 @880. I wonder what is your clock?

[Litt]

the party is over.

[Slasklitta]

I've got a few 6850's. Already have one installed and i get ~237 MHash/s...
Dont think its worth mining with these. They are great for gaming, but not for mining. Why is that?

So, should i go and mine with these badboys? What do you think?

[trueimage]

I've got a few 6850's. Already have one installed and i get ~237 MHash/s...
Dont think its worth mining with these. They are great for gaming, but not for mining. Why is that?

So, should i go and mine with these badboys? What do you think?

I was wondering this as well

5850 and 6950 refurbs are the same price locally. which would be best?

[finnthecelt]

It would be in a miner's best interest to deny profitability because any additional computing power added to the network decreases the bitcoin income of the existing miner.

If miners were perfectly rational and willing to lie, then yes, it would be in their best interest to deny profitability.

However, most people posting here like to think that they are honest people.  As such, they express their "true" opinion, and not lies.  And most people who mine do so because they think it is profitable - just like most people who flipped houses in 2006 did so because they thought it was going to continue to be profitable - even when data was staring them straight in the face that houses were getting too expensive.  People will go to extraordinary lengths to continue to believe easy money will keep coming.

I've spent a lot of time reading this forum over the last few days and I don't agree with your statement.

However, most people posting here like to think that they are honest people.  As such, they express their "true" opinion, and not lies.

I have found so much negativity, conflicting points of data, defeatism and what seems to be disinformation. Sr. members and experienced miners contradicting their data points and profatibility estimates....oi!!! What's a newb to do?

I for one will be getting a rig and will ignore the naysayers. If I lose money I'll have some sweet gaming stations. Being a gamer I don't care. Also, being an investor I'm prepared to lose money.

But for the other newbs, if I had listened to everyone who had opinions before I made certain investments 3 years ago, I would have been out on 10's of K's of $. You have to DO something for yourself to figure out if it's going to work or not.

I'm not questioning the moral integrity of the majority of members of the board, but logic would dictate that when two or more (1?) people get together you immediately have conflicting agendas and emotion will cause logic to stray. One of the first rules of being a scientist, never trust your own data. Test, test, test.

[MoonShadow]

Well said.

[fnord123]

I for one will be getting a rig and will ignore the naysayers. If I lose money I'll have some sweet gaming stations. Being a gamer I don't care. Also, being an investor I'm prepared to lose money.

Except you won't have sweet gaming stations.  5830, 5850, and 5870 are last gen technology and were not the best technology to boot.  Gaming-wise the 69xx series or NVIDIA HW are much better gaming platforms.

Also, putting money in bitcoins (and mining rigs) is not investing, it is speculating.  Bitcoins have no real income stream other than people buying them thinking they may be worth more in the future.  They don't throw off interest, have no real assets behind them, and are not guaranteed by anything.  Putting money in bitcoins or mining HW is nothing like buying stocks, bonds, CDs, etc. - it is strictly a speculation that there is someone else out there who is willing to spend even more money in buying bitcoins than you did.

But for the other newbs, if I had listened to everyone who had opinions before I made certain investments 3 years ago, I would have been out on 10's of K's of $. You have to DO something for yourself to figure out if it's going to work or not.

When I invested in BTE in 2008 I had no experience drilling for oil (and none since), but I made 10s of Ks of $ selling BTE 1.5 years later.  Your statement that one has to DO something to know if it will work is thus proved false.  You don't have to do something to figure out if it is a good investment or not.  You do research, examine the fundamentals/trends, and put your money in or not. 

One of the first rules of being a scientist, never trust your own data. Test, test, test.

Nonsense - I know lots of scientists, the experiments/tests they run are built on top of on the data and studies of others. Pretty much nobody except pure mathematicians start from nothing and prove/test everything all the way up (and the maths guys just do it to show how cool they are).  One can make a decision about bitcoin mining without actually participating in it.

There are lots of contradictions in what people say, but consider this - if you go to a gold investing forum (e.g. Kitco forums), where most people there own gold/are buying gold, do you expect the majority to say gold sucks and is a terrible investment, or to say gold is awesome and well worth buying?  Obviously the latter - just like in the Bitcoin mining forum the majority says/thinks Bitcoin mining is a good idea.  People talk their wallet, it is human nature.

[finnthecelt]

I for one will be getting a rig and will ignore the naysayers. If I lose money I'll have some sweet gaming stations. Being a gamer I don't care. Also, being an investor I'm prepared to lose money.

Except you won't have sweet gaming stations.  5830, 5850, and 5870 are last gen technology and were not the best technology to boot.  Gaming-wise the 69xx series or NVIDIA HW are much better gaming platforms.

Also, putting money in bitcoins (and mining rigs) is not investing, it is speculating.  Bitcoins have no real income stream other than people buying them thinking they may be worth more in the future.  They don't throw off interest, have no real assets behind them, and are not guaranteed by anything.  Putting money in bitcoins or mining HW is nothing like buying stocks, bonds, CDs, etc. - it is strictly a speculation that there is someone else out there who is willing to spend even more money in buying bitcoins than you did.

But for the other newbs, if I had listened to everyone who had opinions before I made certain investments 3 years ago, I would have been out on 10's of K's of $. You have to DO something for yourself to figure out if it's going to work or not.

When I invested in BTE in 2008 I had no experience drilling for oil (and none since), but I made 10s of Ks of $ selling BTE 1.5 years later.  Your statement that one has to DO something to know if it will work is thus proved false.  You don't have to do something to figure out if it is a good investment or not.  You do research, examine the fundamentals/trends, and put your money in or not. 

One of the first rules of being a scientist, never trust your own data. Test, test, test.

Nonsense - I know lots of scientists, the experiments/tests they run are built on top of on the data and studies of others. Pretty much nobody except pure mathematicians start from nothing and prove/test everything all the way up (and the maths guys just do it to show how cool they are).  One can make a decision about bitcoin mining without actually participating in it.

There are lots of contradictions in what people say, but consider this - if you go to a gold investing forum (e.g. Kitco forums), where most people there own gold/are buying gold, do you expect the majority to say gold sucks and is a terrible investment, or to say gold is awesome and well worth buying?  Obviously the latter - just like in the Bitcoin mining forum the majority says/thinks Bitcoin mining is a good idea.  People talk their wallet, it is human nature.

Totally weak but whatever. I have no response for that trite. You win.

[Wildy]

Sorry for the necro-bump, just wanted to thank everyone that replied for their helpful advice.

[CRYPT]

I suppose I've a skewed perspective...

I was going to buy a computer anyhow...it's just that time.  I have a high-end laptop that I was using, but no tower type PC; so, I was buying a computer anyhow (mining or not). And a year ago, I didn't even know what a bitcoin was!  However, something I've always known, is that for my primary purposes of using a computer (emails, Word, PPT, watching DVDs, browsing the web), most off-the-shelf computer systems were MUCH more powerful than what I was using them for...

Now enter bitcoin --  at least, in some small way, I can get at a minimum, a novelty return of some sort, even if it's miniscule.  However, now that I do know about bitcoin, I opted to get a 'gamer' system, enter the:

CyberpowerPC Gamer Ultra 2062 Desktop PC Phenom II X4 965(3.4GHz) 4GB DDR3 1TB HDD Capacity AMD Radeon HD 6870 Windows 7 Home Premium 64-Bit. 

I got it in less than 10 days - delivered to a remote Contingency Operating Station in Iraq, with shipping for less than $900.  Note that it includes the elusive AMD Radeon HD 6870 - which in none tweaked form, out of the box, in less than an hour, was generating ~300 Mhash/s -  just GPU, I've not even start trying to manipulate the CPU cores yet.

It helped that I'd already been experimenting with my laptops NVIDA GX card (a measly 24Mhash on the GPU, 4.1 Mhash/s on the CPU).  So now, I'm making like .21 BTC per day; and I'm not paying for electricity, so... I can't complain.

Not for nothing, but rather for $1500.00 - I did actually jumped on that 'bitcoin bandwagon', and to that end, have bought 2 HD 6990 cards (albiet on back order) @ PC Connection.  When they come in, I may have to get creative, but the CyberpowerPC Gamer Ultra 2062 Desktop PC has the pci slots (and supposedly the harness rotates out) necessary to run these. AND the system even came with all of the Crossfire cabling and mounting brackets I might need (and I didn't even ask them for it).

So far, I'm more than pleased, but back on topic... so suppose someday I do have to return to a land where I have to pay for electricity (at least noone will be trying to launch rockets and mortars at me, so there's some intangible value in that too), even if I do have to pay for electricity, I WILL AT LEAST be making some sort of return! Something, as opposed to nothing, EVEN if it only partially compensates - it's still more than NOTHING!!!

I understand from a purely ROI perspective - but come on guys... You buy cars (video cards) and pay for gas (electricity) to go from point A to B (cruising the web) and MOST people don't stop to think... hhmmmm is my having a car really a money making endeavor?

So money making aside... if you've a computer, and electric service, then AT A MINIMUM what you gain, which is priceless, is a more indepth knowledge of how rpc works, how computers in general work, how to access the cmd window on your GUI based windows box.  I think, if nothing else, bitcoin awareness is rising the mark on the 'how a computer works' tideline.

Anyways, I just spent .0022435 BTC worth of electricity typing this so...

Thats my  0.002 BTC worth on the subject.

Happy mining all.
CRYPT