2^256 Deep Space Vagabond

[Remember remember the 5th of November]

I'm closing this project due to other priorities. Thanks everyone. It was fun!    

Why remove .scr file? Some people started getting results and you shutdown the project to maintain the "0% chance for address colision" myth?

It's not a myth, it's just facts. 2^256 is a really really really large number.

[1714005722]

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[1714005722]

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[jackjack]

you shutdown the project to maintain the "0% chance for address collision" myth?

I'm closing this project due to other priorities. Thanks everyone. It was fun!   

Why remove .scr file? Some people started getting results and you shutdown the project to maintain the "0% chance for address colision" myth?

It's not a myth, it's just facts. 2^256 is a really really really large number.

2^160

[Kluge]

Assuming 500K addresses which either have funds or will have funds within next three months,
0.0000000000000000000000000000000000000000034211388289180104270598866779539% chance per check.

Assuming average computer can do 250 optimized DSV-like checks per second,
0.00000000000000000000000000000000000000085528470722950260676497166948848% chance per second.

Assuming a "theft pool" is formed, and 500 of these computers averaging the above click/s,
0.00000000000000000000000000000000000042764235361475130338248583474424% chance per second.

Assuming each theft pool is one botnet, and 20 botnets, exactly the same, exist in these theft pools,
0.0000000000000000000000000000000000085528470722950260676497166948848% chance per second.

Per minute,
0.00000000000000000000000000000000051317082433770156405898300169309%

Per hour,
0.000000000000000000000000000000030790249460262093843538980101585%

Per day,
0.00000000000000000000000000000073896598704629025224493552243804%

Per month (30D),
0.000000000000000000000000000022168979611388707567348065673141%

Per year,
0.00000000000000000000000000026972258527189594206940146568988%


Assume worst-case scenario, DSV-like software can check 5000 addresses (10M of which are funded or will be funded within 6 months) per second, and 100 botnets of 50,000 computers each...
Per day,
0.000000000000000000000000014779319740925805044898710448761%

Per month,
0.00000000000000000000000044337959222777415134696131346283%

Per year,
0.0000000000000000000000053944517054379188413880293137978%

Per century,
0.00000000000000000000053944517054379188413880293137978%


Are we done, now?


ETA: Worse-than-worst case scenario. NSA can check 1T addresses per second, 1T addresses are funded.
Per century,
0.0000000000000021577806821751675365552117255191%

Per billion centuries,
0.0000021577806821751675365552117255191%

[jackjack]

inb4 YOU SEE IT'S A MYTH IT'S NOT 0%!!

[Kluge]

Are we done, now?

No, we are not because you are excluding one very important variable, called luck. I don't care about your calculations, if chance is not exactly
0% than "address collision is impossible" is a myth.

Well, I suppose that's true. If you're feeling lucky, I'll bet you $20,000 (would be more, but I'm poor) that you won't roll a 1 on a 9,000,000,000,000,000,000-sided die. Technically, you have a 0.00000000000000000011111111111111111111111111111111% chance of winning... As far as significant numbers go, you would have 0% chance of winning.

So, yes, it's possible, but any rational person would be more than willing to bet a ton of money on those odds.

ETA: By bet, I mean I'll pay out $20k if I lose. If you lose, you don't have to pay anything out. This would be more in line with trusting an address not to be "stumbled upon" with DSV-like software.

[Remember remember the 5th of November]

you shutdown the project to maintain the "0% chance for address collision" myth?

I'm closing this project due to other priorities. Thanks everyone. It was fun!    

Why remove .scr file? Some people started getting results and you shutdown the project to maintain the "0% chance for address colision" myth?

It's not a myth, it's just facts. 2^256 is a really really really large number.

2^160

2^160 for RIPEMD-160, but 2^256(-secpk256k1 max number thing) for the possible private keys that hashes to an address within the 1^160 address space.

[jackjack]

you shutdown the project to maintain the "0% chance for address collision" myth?

I'm closing this project due to other priorities. Thanks everyone. It was fun!   

Why remove .scr file? Some people started getting results and you shutdown the project to maintain the "0% chance for address colision" myth?

It's not a myth, it's just facts. 2^256 is a really really really large number.

2^160

2^160 for RIPEMD-160, but 2^256(-secpk256k1 max number thing) for the possible private keys that hashes to an address within the 1^160 address space.

He was talking about address collision
The odds of an address collision is 2^160

[Remember remember the 5th of November]

you shutdown the project to maintain the "0% chance for address collision" myth?

I'm closing this project due to other priorities. Thanks everyone. It was fun!   

Why remove .scr file? Some people started getting results and you shutdown the project to maintain the "0% chance for address colision" myth?

It's not a myth, it's just facts. 2^256 is a really really really large number.

2^160

2^160 for RIPEMD-160, but 2^256(-secpk256k1 max number thing) for the possible private keys that hashes to an address within the 1^160 address space.

He was talking about address collision
The odds of an address collision is 2^160

That isn't odds.

If you say 1:2^160 then that's odds, or some other calculation, but just saying 2^160 doesn't mean odds.

[jackjack]

Hmm
The guy said "0% chance"
That means odds
So I assumed odds

[BurtW]

To be exact:

Assume N(t) = the number of Bitcoin addresses that have a positive balance at time t.

The probablity of colliding with one of these N(t) addresses by random chance is:

    Probablity_collision(t) = N(t) / 2¹⁶⁰

The odds of colliding with one of these N(t) addresses by random chance is:

    Odds_collision(t) = N(t) : (2¹⁶⁰ - N(t))

Since N is a function of time the probablity and odds are also a function of time.

Since N(t) is much less than 2¹⁶⁰ these can both be approximated as the static constant values:

    Probablity_collision is about 1 / 2¹⁶⁰

    Odds_collision is about 1 : 2¹⁶⁰

[Nancarrow]

Per billion centuries,
0.0000021577806821751675365552117255191%

[Lloyd in 'Dumb and Dumber']So you're telling me there's a chance...[/LiD&D]

No, we are not because you are excluding one very important variable, called luck.

  Actually when somebody takes the time to do calculations of probability, that's pretty much the definition of 'taking account of luck'.

If you say 1:2^160 then that's odds, or some other calculation, but just saying 2^160 doesn't mean odds.

Sheesh. Fine. Reciprocal odds. Happy now?

[Kluge]

I like the idea of eliminating the "0% chance of collision" myth, though.

0.00000000000000000000000000026972258527189594206940146568988% chance per year sounds better.

Though, if we changed it to one of "your" addresses being stumbled upon with needle-in-a-haystack-finders (that's the uhh... technical term), and we'll say you have 100 addresses... without opening calculator again, it'd be more like
0.0000000000000000000000000000000000000000000026972258527189594206940146568988% chance per year.

It'd be a cool April 1st press release from the Bitcoin Foundation posting up some big red "ALERT!!!" blurb on how your Bitcoins aren't safe as there's a .000...% chance of it being stumbled upon.

[b!z]

I like the idea of eliminating the "0% chance of collision" myth, though.

0.00000000000000000000000000026972258527189594206940146568988% chance per year sounds better.

Though, if we changed it to one of "your" addresses being stumbled upon with needle-in-a-haystack-finders (that's the uhh... technical term), and we'll say you have 100 addresses... without opening calculator again, it'd be more like
0.0000000000000000000000000000000000000000000026972258527189594206940146568988% chance per year.

It'd be a cool April 1st press release from the Bitcoin Foundation posting up some big red "ALERT!!!" blurb on how your Bitcoins aren't safe as there's a .000...% chance of it being stumbled upon.

And then the price of BTC drops to $5 each.

[Kluge]

I like the idea of eliminating the "0% chance of collision" myth, though.

0.00000000000000000000000000026972258527189594206940146568988% chance per year sounds better.

Though, if we changed it to one of "your" addresses being stumbled upon with needle-in-a-haystack-finders (that's the uhh... technical term), and we'll say you have 100 addresses... without opening calculator again, it'd be more like
0.0000000000000000000000000000000000000000000026972258527189594206940146568988% chance per year.

It'd be a cool April 1st press release from the Bitcoin Foundation posting up some big red "ALERT!!!" blurb on how your Bitcoins aren't safe as there's a .000...% chance of it being stumbled upon.

And then the price of BTC drops to $5 each.

Yeah, right. People aren't that stupid. The way you make it sound, we probably spend tens of billions on bottled water more expensive per gallon than gasoline.

[David Rabahy]

If you're going to probe then you might as well probe 1933phfhK3ZgFQNLGSDXvqCn32k2buXY8a since it has such at a high value.

[qwk]

Are we done, now?

No, we are not because you are excluding one very important variable, called luck. I don't care about your calculations, if chance is not exactly
0% than "address collision is impossible" is a myth.

a myth is a sacred narrative explaining how the world and humankind assumed their present form,[2] although, in a very broad sense, the word can refer to any traditional story.[3] Bruce Lincoln defines myth as "ideology in narrative form".

You're probably right. Although an address collision is in fact impossible by any sensible standard, this statement is also "a traditional story" or bitcoin "ideology in narrative form".

q.e.d. ■

[flatfly]

As a special end-of-summer treat, the DSV download link is up again

[nimda]

As a special end-of-summer treat, the DSV download link is up again

Nice!

Do you need hosting or something? What was holding it back before?

[gaston909]

So how long do i need to run this until i get hold of satoshis stash?

[bitpop]

Where will it save keys it finds?